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This whole episode also reminds us how far we are from going 100% renewable. In winter all renewables are inhibited and at risk. Wind: frozen/disabled turbines

This whole episode also reminds us how far we are from going 100% renewable. In winter all renewables are inhibited and at risk. Wind: frozen/disabled turbines. Water: low water levels, small hydro plants often have to shut down. Solar is obvious. I'm not a fan of nuclear - externalities that last thousands of years are horrible. But until fusion arrives (if ever), nuclear and gas sadly are the baseline providers we have to rely on for the foreseeable future.

gambiting 6y ago
How exactly does it show that? From my understanding Texas has an awful(below 20%) percentage of renewable sources.
- ianai 6y ago
  TFA says it’s grid is mostly natural gas and wind. There seems to be lots of misconceptions in this thread and not a lot of information. Nuclear would have been fine throughout this.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    Apparently one of the nuclear turbines went offline because the turbine was exposed to the open air (for cooling during the summer) and some of the sensors triggered a shutoff of the turbine when they detected unexpected temperatures. Another case where systems misbehave when they’re exposed to circumstances outside the expected range.
  - stonlyb 6y ago
    Nuclear relies on water for cooling, which froze in at least one plant.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    I think it's fair to say that their top two energy sources are natural gas and coal, although "mostly natural gas and nuclear" would also be fair, in its own way. https://www.utilitydive.com/user_media/diveimage/ercotmix.png https://www.utilitydive.com/user_media/diveimage/ercotmix.pn...
- onlyrealcuzzo 6y ago
  The US as a whole is about ~11% [1], and Texas is ~25% [2]. Considering Texas makes up a decent chunk of the total US energy consumption, it's a bit more lopsided than it seems. Texas is pretty green, when it comes to energy. [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=92&t=4 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=92&t=4 [2] https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=TX https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=TX
jimbob45 6y ago
Isn’t that sort of the million dollar question here though? Would winterization of the turbines and solar panels have mitigated or even solved this?
ashtonkem 6y ago
I find it really weird that everyone is jumping to blame wind here, but totally ignoring all the natural gas plants that are turned off.
- Analemma_ 6y ago
  It's not "weird", it's the result of deliberate enemy action. There's a propaganda machine running full-tilt as we speak to paint this as the fault of wind power, when wind was actually overproducing compared to ERCOT's models.
- mullen 6y ago
  Right Wingers don't care about solutions, just their narrative. So windmills are to blame and the gas plants are okay.
- hristov 6y ago
  It is even weirder than you find it. When you read towards the end of the article, it says "Most of the power knocked offline came from thermal sources, Woodfin said, particularly natural gas." So natural gas and other thermal sources (i.e., coal and nuclear) created most of the problem. Wind power is actually potentially a very good solution for occasional cold spells, because extreme colds usually comes with high winds. Of course you have to design your turbines not to freeze.
  - eropple 6y ago
    > Of course you have to design your turbines not to freeze. While true (and I'm not saying you don't know this, more just pointing it out), wind works great in cold climates. We've done our homework on this one already.
0xB31B1B 6y ago
if you actually look at the data, this has nothing to do with renewables. Wind is actually producing more than expected at this time of year, while traditional sources (nuclear, natural gas, coal) are underproducing what they are expected by 40%. This is due partly to these plants operating outside of their designed temp tolerances, and partly due to a natural gas supply crises in texas.
bsder 6y ago
Renewable wasn't the issue. The renewables are outperforming what was expected. However, renewables are like 4% of the total energy generation. ERCOT lost about 40% of its total generation capacity. Almost all of the ERCOT shortfall was loss of thermal generating capacity--mostly natural gas. The natural gas was shunted to heating because those contracts are fixed and higher priority (market failure). Also, some of the natural gas lines, wells, and pumping stations froze (planning failure). ERCOT lost more than 35% of its natural gas generating capacity. This was everybody cutting corners and finally getting burned.
- barbacoa 6y ago
  >renewables are like 4% of the total energy generation. Wind power is close to 25% of ercot grid.
  - bsder 6y ago
    Under normal conditions because everything backs off. Under high-load conditions this is very definitely not true.
dawnerd 6y ago
Even on cloudy days my small solar on my roof generates enough power for my house. Large solar farms sure have reduced production but they're not as useless as you'd think.
MSM 6y ago
There are a number of countries with very high renewable usage that are in cold climates. Denmark comes to mind, where, on average, it's right around freezing for months at a time. Hell, they have turbines in the extremely corrosive oceans, getting blasted by freezing rain and they make it work. Last I saw they got something like 50% of their power from wind. Anyone who is using this event to say that renewables are a bad idea is selling a completely false narrative.
- leesalminen 6y ago
  I’m definitely not saying renewables are a bad idea, but I think there are some flaws in your comparison. For one, the delta from 32F (right around freezing) to 65F (heated home temp) is much less than 0F to 65F. Second, I’d imagine that buildings in Denmark are designed for this kind of cold. Unlike Texas where many homes have much less insulation because it rarely gets this cold. Both of these issues would compound the energy demand issue Texas is seeing right now.
  - zamadatix 6y ago
    > For one, the delta from 32F (right around freezing) to 65F (heated home temp) is much less than 0F to 65F Not sure what you're trying to say with this point, the average low of e.g. Dallas is 39F not 0F. I'm quite sure the record low in Denmark is going to be lower than the record low in Dallas if that's what you intended to compare instead. The second issue is valid logic for why you need higher peak generation not why renewables can't supply it. Wind was overproducing estimates, the problem wasn't wind couldn't provide during the load period it was that the plants of all types weren't prepared to operate in the cold. . I think the main differences are: - Denmark is part of a larger grid system instead of independent - Denmark pays more for electricity - Denmark prepares its equipment for extreme conditions and I think these are all true for all power sources.
- morsma 6y ago
  We also have some of the most expensive power in the world. Kinda goes hand in hand it seems.
thehappypm 6y ago
Hydro doesn’t really suffer in the cold
jimmaswell 6y ago
Radiation buried far below the ground in a remote region where it will never impact anybody or anything is not an externality of any magnitude.

gambiting 6y ago

How exactly does it show that? From my understanding Texas has an awful(below 20%) percentage of renewable sources.

ianai 6y ago
TFA says it’s grid is mostly natural gas and wind. There seems to be lots of misconceptions in this thread and not a lot of information. Nuclear would have been fine throughout this.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  Apparently one of the nuclear turbines went offline because the turbine was exposed to the open air (for cooling during the summer) and some of the sensors triggered a shutoff of the turbine when they detected unexpected temperatures. Another case where systems misbehave when they’re exposed to circumstances outside the expected range.
- stonlyb 6y ago
  Nuclear relies on water for cooling, which froze in at least one plant.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  I think it's fair to say that their top two energy sources are natural gas and coal, although "mostly natural gas and nuclear" would also be fair, in its own way. https://www.utilitydive.com/user_media/diveimage/ercotmix.png https://www.utilitydive.com/user_media/diveimage/ercotmix.pn...
onlyrealcuzzo 6y ago
The US as a whole is about ~11% [1], and Texas is ~25% [2]. Considering Texas makes up a decent chunk of the total US energy consumption, it's a bit more lopsided than it seems. Texas is pretty green, when it comes to energy. [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=92&t=4 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=92&t=4 [2] https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=TX https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=TX

jimbob45 6y ago

Isn’t that sort of the million dollar question here though? Would winterization of the turbines and solar panels have mitigated or even solved this?

ashtonkem 6y ago

I find it really weird that everyone is jumping to blame wind here, but totally ignoring all the natural gas plants that are turned off.

Analemma_ 6y ago
It's not "weird", it's the result of deliberate enemy action. There's a propaganda machine running full-tilt as we speak to paint this as the fault of wind power, when wind was actually overproducing compared to ERCOT's models.
mullen 6y ago
Right Wingers don't care about solutions, just their narrative. So windmills are to blame and the gas plants are okay.
hristov 6y ago
It is even weirder than you find it. When you read towards the end of the article, it says "Most of the power knocked offline came from thermal sources, Woodfin said, particularly natural gas." So natural gas and other thermal sources (i.e., coal and nuclear) created most of the problem. Wind power is actually potentially a very good solution for occasional cold spells, because extreme colds usually comes with high winds. Of course you have to design your turbines not to freeze.
- eropple 6y ago
  > Of course you have to design your turbines not to freeze. While true (and I'm not saying you don't know this, more just pointing it out), wind works great in cold climates. We've done our homework on this one already.

0xB31B1B 6y ago

if you actually look at the data, this has nothing to do with renewables. Wind is actually producing more than expected at this time of year, while traditional sources (nuclear, natural gas, coal) are underproducing what they are expected by 40%. This is due partly to these plants operating outside of their designed temp tolerances, and partly due to a natural gas supply crises in texas.

bsder 6y ago

Renewable wasn't the issue. The renewables are outperforming what was expected. However, renewables are like 4% of the total energy generation. ERCOT lost about 40% of its total generation capacity. Almost all of the ERCOT shortfall was loss of thermal generating capacity--mostly natural gas. The natural gas was shunted to heating because those contracts are fixed and higher priority (market failure). Also, some of the natural gas lines, wells, and pumping stations froze (planning failure). ERCOT lost more than 35% of its natural gas generating capacity. This was everybody cutting corners and finally getting burned.

barbacoa 6y ago
>renewables are like 4% of the total energy generation. Wind power is close to 25% of ercot grid.
- bsder 6y ago
  Under normal conditions because everything backs off. Under high-load conditions this is very definitely not true.

dawnerd 6y ago

Even on cloudy days my small solar on my roof generates enough power for my house. Large solar farms sure have reduced production but they're not as useless as you'd think.

MSM 6y ago

There are a number of countries with very high renewable usage that are in cold climates. Denmark comes to mind, where, on average, it's right around freezing for months at a time. Hell, they have turbines in the extremely corrosive oceans, getting blasted by freezing rain and they make it work. Last I saw they got something like 50% of their power from wind. Anyone who is using this event to say that renewables are a bad idea is selling a completely false narrative.

leesalminen 6y ago
I’m definitely not saying renewables are a bad idea, but I think there are some flaws in your comparison. For one, the delta from 32F (right around freezing) to 65F (heated home temp) is much less than 0F to 65F. Second, I’d imagine that buildings in Denmark are designed for this kind of cold. Unlike Texas where many homes have much less insulation because it rarely gets this cold. Both of these issues would compound the energy demand issue Texas is seeing right now.
- zamadatix 6y ago
  > For one, the delta from 32F (right around freezing) to 65F (heated home temp) is much less than 0F to 65F Not sure what you're trying to say with this point, the average low of e.g. Dallas is 39F not 0F. I'm quite sure the record low in Denmark is going to be lower than the record low in Dallas if that's what you intended to compare instead. The second issue is valid logic for why you need higher peak generation not why renewables can't supply it. Wind was overproducing estimates, the problem wasn't wind couldn't provide during the load period it was that the plants of all types weren't prepared to operate in the cold. . I think the main differences are: - Denmark is part of a larger grid system instead of independent - Denmark pays more for electricity - Denmark prepares its equipment for extreme conditions and I think these are all true for all power sources.
morsma 6y ago
We also have some of the most expensive power in the world. Kinda goes hand in hand it seems.

thehappypm 6y ago

Hydro doesn’t really suffer in the cold

jimmaswell 6y ago

Radiation buried far below the ground in a remote region where it will never impact anybody or anything is not an externality of any magnitude.