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Don't know if anyone else made this mistake but: author is not saying bitcoin will 50/50 collapse tonight just some night this year. > So the next time someone

Don't know if anyone else made this mistake but: author is not saying bitcoin will 50/50 collapse tonight just some night this year. > So the next time someone tries to explain to you that “Bitcoin is a store of value”, when the chances of it getting utterly destroyed overnight before the year is over are around 50/50, try not to shoot coffee through your nose laughing. EDIT: Not saying I agree with the prediction, it's just a far more timid prediction than I initially thought.

eimrine 6y ago
What probability to meet a dinosaur walking next to your house? It is 50%, either you will meet it or not.
- Tepix 6y ago
  If you accept bets, I'm sure the odds won't be 50/50 as they are here.
  - dmichulke 6y ago
    This! I have my reasons against the author's theories but if he's so sure he should bet and be rich within 2 years time. Now, will he?
  - eimrine 6y ago
    "«Dear fellows», Nasreddin said calmly, «before twenty years are up, either I, or Timur, or my donkey will die»."
solean 6y ago
What are the odds of a 50/50 yoy event not happening for 11 years straight?
- singularity2001 6y ago
  0.5**11
Shorel 6y ago
From the article: >"In our case [...] R ≈ 50% based on what happened after MtGox collapsed." He is counting on another MtGox. Black swan events are not certain, by definition.