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The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market r

by Closi 6y ago

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actually that good as a currency, people need to turn their BTC into fiat in order to realise their value and spend them. And then suddenly... there aren't any buyers and it crashes.

Tepix 6y ago
You're not taking inflation into account.
- Closi 6y ago
  Inflation isn't the driving force here.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  Inflation is only relevant from the time you receive cash to the time you invest it in productive (or in the case of Bitcoin, totally unproductive) investments. In fact, inflation is the only reason people put money into Bitcoin lol. If there wasn't any inflation, nobody would buy Bitcoin. Really makes you think.
bhouston 6y ago
The stock market continues to go up even though its adoption is already widespread. The reason is that governments continue to print USD, and other currencies, which they get invested, re-loaded out, etc. I expect that this can continue in Bitcoin as well for quite some time if there continues to be a shared belief in its intrinsic value.
- Closi 6y ago
  A shared belief in intrinsic value? What's the calculation then that results in the current bitcoin price without referring to it's existing or historical price? The stock market goes up because you are looking at a market index of the biggest companies, which are growing bigger as markets concentrate. The difference is if you have a share for a year, it earns you a return separate to what happens to the price of the stock (i.e. a dividend), and this is the intrinsic value (i.e. you can do a fundamental analysis of the stock to reach a price). If you hold onto a Bitcoin for a year it might be worth more, but only because the market is pricing it differently, not because of any fundamentals. This is why it does not have intrinsic value.
thebean11 6y ago
This doesn't sound right to me. It seems like your analysis assumes that BTC has already become a store of value, and people are putting excess income into it, like gold. In that future, why wouldn't there be buyers? There aren't new people earning money and investing excess income? People need to turn gold into fiat in order to spend it. Those are people with excess wealth and not enough income. There will always be people on the other side, excess income but low wealth.
- Closi 6y ago
  More specifically, I'm assuming that they are a speculative instrument where people are expecting positive growth (i.e. that bitcoins become more valuable over time). The supply of new people earning money who will want to invest income into Bitcoin has to be finite. Growth can't continue forever because you always need to find someone new who is willing to pay more than you did for a bitcoin/satoshi to keep the price growing, and there isn't an infinite supply of people with an infinite supply of money.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
arcticbull 6y ago
> As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. Bitcoin is negative sum because the miners constantly have to sell Bitcoins for real currency to pay their electric bills. The equilibrium point is when the new money entering the system is equal to the cash value of block rewards. The higher the price, the more new money has to come in to keep it stable. Currently, Tesla's $1.5B investment is about 4-5 weeks of electric bills (lmao). The point at which there are no new buyers is actually a negative slope point.

by Closi 6y ago

Tepix 6y ago

You're not taking inflation into account.

Closi 6y ago
Inflation isn't the driving force here.
arcticbull 6y ago
Inflation is only relevant from the time you receive cash to the time you invest it in productive (or in the case of Bitcoin, totally unproductive) investments. In fact, inflation is the only reason people put money into Bitcoin lol. If there wasn't any inflation, nobody would buy Bitcoin. Really makes you think.

bhouston 6y ago

The stock market continues to go up even though its adoption is already widespread. The reason is that governments continue to print USD, and other currencies, which they get invested, re-loaded out, etc. I expect that this can continue in Bitcoin as well for quite some time if there continues to be a shared belief in its intrinsic value.

Closi 6y ago
A shared belief in intrinsic value? What's the calculation then that results in the current bitcoin price without referring to it's existing or historical price? The stock market goes up because you are looking at a market index of the biggest companies, which are growing bigger as markets concentrate. The difference is if you have a share for a year, it earns you a return separate to what happens to the price of the stock (i.e. a dividend), and this is the intrinsic value (i.e. you can do a fundamental analysis of the stock to reach a price). If you hold onto a Bitcoin for a year it might be worth more, but only because the market is pricing it differently, not because of any fundamentals. This is why it does not have intrinsic value.

thebean11 6y ago

This doesn't sound right to me. It seems like your analysis assumes that BTC has already become a store of value, and people are putting excess income into it, like gold. In that future, why wouldn't there be buyers? There aren't new people earning money and investing excess income? People need to turn gold into fiat in order to spend it. Those are people with excess wealth and not enough income. There will always be people on the other side, excess income but low wealth.

Closi 6y ago
More specifically, I'm assuming that they are a speculative instrument where people are expecting positive growth (i.e. that bitcoins become more valuable over time). The supply of new people earning money who will want to invest income into Bitcoin has to be finite. Growth can't continue forever because you always need to find someone new who is willing to pay more than you did for a bitcoin/satoshi to keep the price growing, and there isn't an infinite supply of people with an infinite supply of money.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

arcticbull 6y ago

> As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. Bitcoin is negative sum because the miners constantly have to sell Bitcoins for real currency to pay their electric bills. The equilibrium point is when the new money entering the system is equal to the cash value of block rewards. The higher the price, the more new money has to come in to keep it stable. Currently, Tesla's $1.5B investment is about 4-5 weeks of electric bills (lmao). The point at which there are no new buyers is actually a negative slope point.