4 ms·
> when will you consider the possibility you may have been wrong? At $100k? At $1M? Personally I think Bitcoin has at least two bubbles left before it pops per
by audunw 6y ago
> when will you consider the possibility you may have been wrong? At $100k? At $1M?
Personally I think Bitcoin has at least two bubbles left before it pops permanently. So $1M price could be achievable.
The real question is what happens when it does reach a ceiling. At some point there's not going to much more potential interest for Bitcoin, and what then? Are people gonna start moving their pension funds to Bitcoin? I think the governments will crack hard down on that, because you really want investments in building the economy, not in a pure investment/gambling scheme.
If most people start thinking there's no one else interested in buying their Bitcoin down the line, it'll crash hard, and the crash will likely be permanent. Because there's no real value behind Bitcoin. The money you invested is already spent by someone on something else.
The reason why it's interesting that Bitcoin keeps having bubbles is that there's not much reason to think that will stop. Yeah, the value keeps growing over longer time periods, but eventually a bubble will be so large that it'll seriously disrupt the economy, and that's when you'll start to see governments and peoples attitudes change.
> I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin here because even without any venture backing, it achieved a bigger valuation than all of the Y Combinator companies COMBINED, yet people still think it is unstable and has no future.
The problem is that the valuation is more imaginary than the valuation of any company except for those that are just Ponzi-schemes.
Most money put into Bitcoin has been cashed out or used for mining expenses. If everyone tried to cash out, the price would very quickly race back down to zero. If the same happened with a stocks in a corporation, at some price level someone would just buy up a controlling stake of the shares and liquidate all the assets for a profit.
- ur-whale 6y ago> Because there's no real value behind Bitcoin You post was very interesting (what happens to Bitcoin when it becomes so big it's capable of tilting G7 type economies) up to the argument above, which is: a) wrong because Bitcoin does have some actual utility b) wrong because "value" is only something that carries any kind of meaning in a supply and demand framework c) parroting an argument that has been trumpeted on HN almost as much as "oooh, bad for the environment" and has also been thoroughly debunked.
- RestlessMind 6y ago> Are people gonna start moving their pension funds to Bitcoin? I think the governments will crack hard down on that, because you really want investments in building the economy, not in a pure investment/gambling scheme By that logic, do you support government prohibiting pension funds from investing in Gold?