11 ms·

> many crypto investors to believe the latest bull run is different "This time it's different" isn't an argument I find compelling for why something that is kn

by eterm 6y ago

> many crypto investors to believe the latest bull run is different "This time it's different" isn't an argument I find compelling for why something that is known to have bubbles and manipulation isn't in a bubble.

seibelj 6y ago
I agree, GME was bad enough but no way I’ll touch TSLA.
- saalweachter 6y ago
  I am as skeptical of TSLA as the next fellow, but at least the company can capitalize on its rising stock price to convert it into physical infrastructure that provides a certain floor to the company value.
- Cthulhu_ 6y ago
  TSLA is high now, it might go higher but it's past peak hype at this point so even if you jump in now, you might end up with 2x your investment if it keeps going, but not 10 or 100x.
  - sky_rw 6y ago
    TSLA has been at peak hype for 5+ years.
  - snicksnak 6y ago
    TSLA is still undervalued.
1996 6y ago
For 12 years, just bubbles? First it was over 1 cent, then over $1, over $1000, now over $50k.... when will you consider the possibility you may have been wrong? At $100k? At $1M? (which most models indicate as a plausible target price in 10 years) Let me give you my favorite quote, pulled from another HNer comment: "I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin here because even without any venture backing, it achieved a bigger valuation than all of the Y Combinator companies COMBINED, yet people still think it is unstable and has no future."
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Plenty of venture dollars have been invested in bitcoin related services, or even just used to buy bitcoin directly. It's not really the same relationship as investment in a company, but it's not absent either.
  - seibelj 6y ago
    Traditional VC is a red flag for me to avoid a project given they are dumb money. Crypto VC is a different story though, they can be very helpful. And they are 100% nothing alike so if you are reading this thing crypto VC is just like traditional VC “except crypto!” you are very mistaken.
- seibelj 6y ago
  My crypto friends have raised millions outside of VC and then became very rich once their projects launched basically over night. Liquid immediately and never paid a lawyer. Truly is a paradigm shift and I think a big problem on HN is that VC can’t see they are being disrupted and have no way of avoiding it, plus they think they are untouchable geniuses, so being wrong this hard isn’t pleasant for them.
  - CyberDildonics 6y ago
    Which part of the $28 average transaction fee is the paradigm shift?
    - jsutton 6y ago
      You're missing the forest for the trees. Transaction fees aren't important. In this case, it's the ability to raise funds for a project outside of an elite class of investors, and not have to wait 5-10 years for a liquidation event.
      - CyberDildonics 6y ago
        Transaction fees are pretty important when trying to do transactions, which is pretty much all bitcoin does.
harporoeder 6y ago
This definitely seems like bubble territory, but on the other hand will the next crash follow the "this time it's different" line? Bitcoin has seen extreme price crashes many times and far exceeded the price later on. I doubt the likely next crash is somehow special.
- tomcooks 6y ago
  If the phrase "diamond hands" became a meme is because those who just held their bags and ignored bubbles ended up with 40x gains in a couple of years
gge 6y ago
This time could end up being a bubble, but it is very different for many reasons. The first is that Bitcoin is thriving as a store of value. It hasn't seen much adoption as a payments system and is unlikely to do so in the future, but 2020 saw many notable people using adopting Bitcoin as a store of value. See MassMutual, Paul Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller, Tesla, among many other examples. The second reason is that defi protocols grew in usage by an insane amount in 2020. Decentralized exchanges like Uniswap are beating centralized exchanges in volume and lending protocols like Aave have billions deposited in them. These defi protocols are generating huge cash flows. This is real people using decentralized technologies built on blockchains like Ethereum. Even if the 2021 bull run ends up like a bubble, 2021 will be different in that a lot of the price rises will be based on fundamentals, not pure speculation like in 2017. One thing to note though is that a Bubble is not necessarily a bad thing. In every past Bitcoin "bubble" (2011, 2014, 2017 etc) the price Bitcoin crashed to has always been higher than the price it started the run up at.
- 4a3f35b5a 6y ago
  > These defi protocols are generating huge cash flows. This is real people using decentralized technologies built on blockchains like Ethereum. I'm fairly new to Crypto so I don't understand this: it's looking like all cool new things are built on Ethereum (which, itself has grown quite a lot) so why is Bitcoin rising? How are Bitcoin & advances in Ethereum-based techonologies correlated?
  - gge 6y ago
    Defi does bring more value to Bitcoin since BTC can be put to use in defi protocols. Bitcoin is mainly rising for the first reason though, the growth in defi isn't the main driver.
  - snug 6y ago
    Bitcoin was the first and is still the most famous cryptocurrency. So good news for any cryptocurrency is good news for bitcoin. Most people at this point know that btc exist, they probably don't know what eth is. Bitcoin as collateral. Given many people got extremely rich off of bitcoin, they can use bitcoin as collateral for altcoins. Wrapped bitcoin. Bitcoin can be wrapped in a ERC-20 ETH token backed be an actual bitcoin, similar to stablecoins (USDT, USDC, etc.) and traded using smart contracts

by eterm 6y ago

seibelj 6y ago

I agree, GME was bad enough but no way I’ll touch TSLA.

saalweachter 6y ago
I am as skeptical of TSLA as the next fellow, but at least the company can capitalize on its rising stock price to convert it into physical infrastructure that provides a certain floor to the company value.
Cthulhu_ 6y ago
TSLA is high now, it might go higher but it's past peak hype at this point so even if you jump in now, you might end up with 2x your investment if it keeps going, but not 10 or 100x.
- sky_rw 6y ago
  TSLA has been at peak hype for 5+ years.
- snicksnak 6y ago
  TSLA is still undervalued.

1996 6y ago

For 12 years, just bubbles? First it was over 1 cent, then over $1, over $1000, now over $50k.... when will you consider the possibility you may have been wrong? At $100k? At $1M? (which most models indicate as a plausible target price in 10 years) Let me give you my favorite quote, pulled from another HNer comment: "I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin here because even without any venture backing, it achieved a bigger valuation than all of the Y Combinator companies COMBINED, yet people still think it is unstable and has no future."

maxerickson 6y ago
Plenty of venture dollars have been invested in bitcoin related services, or even just used to buy bitcoin directly. It's not really the same relationship as investment in a company, but it's not absent either.
- seibelj 6y ago
  Traditional VC is a red flag for me to avoid a project given they are dumb money. Crypto VC is a different story though, they can be very helpful. And they are 100% nothing alike so if you are reading this thing crypto VC is just like traditional VC “except crypto!” you are very mistaken.
seibelj 6y ago
My crypto friends have raised millions outside of VC and then became very rich once their projects launched basically over night. Liquid immediately and never paid a lawyer. Truly is a paradigm shift and I think a big problem on HN is that VC can’t see they are being disrupted and have no way of avoiding it, plus they think they are untouchable geniuses, so being wrong this hard isn’t pleasant for them.
- CyberDildonics 6y ago
  Which part of the $28 average transaction fee is the paradigm shift?
  - jsutton 6y ago
    You're missing the forest for the trees. Transaction fees aren't important. In this case, it's the ability to raise funds for a project outside of an elite class of investors, and not have to wait 5-10 years for a liquidation event.
    - CyberDildonics 6y ago
      Transaction fees are pretty important when trying to do transactions, which is pretty much all bitcoin does.

harporoeder 6y ago

This definitely seems like bubble territory, but on the other hand will the next crash follow the "this time it's different" line? Bitcoin has seen extreme price crashes many times and far exceeded the price later on. I doubt the likely next crash is somehow special.

tomcooks 6y ago
If the phrase "diamond hands" became a meme is because those who just held their bags and ignored bubbles ended up with 40x gains in a couple of years

gge 6y ago

This time could end up being a bubble, but it is very different for many reasons. The first is that Bitcoin is thriving as a store of value. It hasn't seen much adoption as a payments system and is unlikely to do so in the future, but 2020 saw many notable people using adopting Bitcoin as a store of value. See MassMutual, Paul Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller, Tesla, among many other examples. The second reason is that defi protocols grew in usage by an insane amount in 2020. Decentralized exchanges like Uniswap are beating centralized exchanges in volume and lending protocols like Aave have billions deposited in them. These defi protocols are generating huge cash flows. This is real people using decentralized technologies built on blockchains like Ethereum. Even if the 2021 bull run ends up like a bubble, 2021 will be different in that a lot of the price rises will be based on fundamentals, not pure speculation like in 2017. One thing to note though is that a Bubble is not necessarily a bad thing. In every past Bitcoin "bubble" (2011, 2014, 2017 etc) the price Bitcoin crashed to has always been higher than the price it started the run up at.

4a3f35b5a 6y ago
> These defi protocols are generating huge cash flows. This is real people using decentralized technologies built on blockchains like Ethereum. I'm fairly new to Crypto so I don't understand this: it's looking like all cool new things are built on Ethereum (which, itself has grown quite a lot) so why is Bitcoin rising? How are Bitcoin & advances in Ethereum-based techonologies correlated?
- gge 6y ago
  Defi does bring more value to Bitcoin since BTC can be put to use in defi protocols. Bitcoin is mainly rising for the first reason though, the growth in defi isn't the main driver.
- snug 6y ago
  Bitcoin was the first and is still the most famous cryptocurrency. So good news for any cryptocurrency is good news for bitcoin. Most people at this point know that btc exist, they probably don't know what eth is. Bitcoin as collateral. Given many people got extremely rich off of bitcoin, they can use bitcoin as collateral for altcoins. Wrapped bitcoin. Bitcoin can be wrapped in a ERC-20 ETH token backed be an actual bitcoin, similar to stablecoins (USDT, USDC, etc.) and traded using smart contracts