3 ms·

It doesn't prevent China from developing expertise. That's inevitable. It prevents the US from falling dramatically behind.

simonh 6y ago
Falling behind on what? Low end assembly line work at the very bottom of the value chain just isn't worth fighting low skilled workers from rural China or Vietnam over. The chances are all of that will be done by robots soon anyway, which is a whole new ball game.
- 10000truths 6y ago
  It’s “low end” right up until you have no access to it. When it comes to national security, you don’t want to be in a position where the majority of your manufacturing output is at the mercy of a foreign country’s blessing. Your R&D is worth nothing if you can’t actually build.
  - simonh 6y ago
    That boat sailed a long, long time ago. The era where any country, even a giant like the US can make everything and be entirely self sufficient is long gone. What kind of future would realistically result in no access to foreign manufacturing or resources? If the risk is seen as China particularly, they only do the lowest value lowest skilled work. Pretty much by definition that's the easiest to relocate. Samsung does most of it's phone manufacturing in Vietnam. Apple has assembly lines in Brazil and India. Yes they're vulnerable to short term pain, but even the recent trade war didn't come even close to the kind of massive economic death struggle that would lead to cutting off access to basic manufacturing. If we end up in an actual war, we'll have more to worry about than not getting the latest iPhone for a few years.
    - nicoffeine 6y ago
      > If we end up in an actual war, we'll have more to worry about than not getting the latest iPhone for a few years. This is a supply issue with silicon/electronics in general. At this point, it would be more of a disaster for any country to lose access to electronics than to oil. I'm not sure where you heard that manufacturing electronics is low skill, but I definitely don't agree. The point is that there's no difference between the US and some country that has oil resources but no refining capacity. We can dig silicon out of the ground but we can't make anything with it. The other thing you may be failing to consider is automation. If another economy gets there first, they won't be just building chips. If you're afraid of China becoming the fastest at bringing technology ideas to market, we are already there. And not just some ridiculously useless SV "x but for uber" product. A real piece of reality that turns on and can perform work. This is even before you get into the national security argument about a trustable supply chain.
      - simonh 6y ago
        Making the high value parts, the CPU, flash memory, camera module, sensors, Gorilla Glass, display panels, etc is high value. Do you know how many of the components on that list are made in China? None. They’re all made in the USA, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Only low value parts and final assembly are done in China yet it’s the low skill final assembly worth only a few dollars in value that counts as “manufacturing”. I think the flash used to be made in China for a while, but the fancy new stuff is South Korea (Samsung) and Japan (Toshiba). The camera modules are made by Sony in Japan. The CPUs are TSMC in Taiwan. Back in the early years over 40% of the value in the Bill of Materials of an iPhone was made in the USA, including the CPUs by Samsung in Texas, Gorilla Glass by Corning in NY state, I forget all the rest, only about 10% of the cost of manufacture was added in China. It’s probably a bit more now.
        nicoffeine 6y ago
        You are still talking about iPhone parts. China is behind on leading edge integrated circuits.[1] However, China can manufacture a computer from entirely Chinese parts.[2] America cannot manufacture a computer from entirely American parts. China not only made plans for a 100% domestically produced computer, they have already achieved it. We don't even have plans. [1] https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-development/ https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-de... [2] https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193625.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193625.shtml

simonh 6y ago

Falling behind on what? Low end assembly line work at the very bottom of the value chain just isn't worth fighting low skilled workers from rural China or Vietnam over. The chances are all of that will be done by robots soon anyway, which is a whole new ball game.

10000truths 6y ago
It’s “low end” right up until you have no access to it. When it comes to national security, you don’t want to be in a position where the majority of your manufacturing output is at the mercy of a foreign country’s blessing. Your R&D is worth nothing if you can’t actually build.
- simonh 6y ago
  That boat sailed a long, long time ago. The era where any country, even a giant like the US can make everything and be entirely self sufficient is long gone. What kind of future would realistically result in no access to foreign manufacturing or resources? If the risk is seen as China particularly, they only do the lowest value lowest skilled work. Pretty much by definition that's the easiest to relocate. Samsung does most of it's phone manufacturing in Vietnam. Apple has assembly lines in Brazil and India. Yes they're vulnerable to short term pain, but even the recent trade war didn't come even close to the kind of massive economic death struggle that would lead to cutting off access to basic manufacturing. If we end up in an actual war, we'll have more to worry about than not getting the latest iPhone for a few years.
  - nicoffeine 6y ago
    > If we end up in an actual war, we'll have more to worry about than not getting the latest iPhone for a few years. This is a supply issue with silicon/electronics in general. At this point, it would be more of a disaster for any country to lose access to electronics than to oil. I'm not sure where you heard that manufacturing electronics is low skill, but I definitely don't agree. The point is that there's no difference between the US and some country that has oil resources but no refining capacity. We can dig silicon out of the ground but we can't make anything with it. The other thing you may be failing to consider is automation. If another economy gets there first, they won't be just building chips. If you're afraid of China becoming the fastest at bringing technology ideas to market, we are already there. And not just some ridiculously useless SV "x but for uber" product. A real piece of reality that turns on and can perform work. This is even before you get into the national security argument about a trustable supply chain.
    - simonh 6y ago
      Making the high value parts, the CPU, flash memory, camera module, sensors, Gorilla Glass, display panels, etc is high value. Do you know how many of the components on that list are made in China? None. They’re all made in the USA, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Only low value parts and final assembly are done in China yet it’s the low skill final assembly worth only a few dollars in value that counts as “manufacturing”. I think the flash used to be made in China for a while, but the fancy new stuff is South Korea (Samsung) and Japan (Toshiba). The camera modules are made by Sony in Japan. The CPUs are TSMC in Taiwan. Back in the early years over 40% of the value in the Bill of Materials of an iPhone was made in the USA, including the CPUs by Samsung in Texas, Gorilla Glass by Corning in NY state, I forget all the rest, only about 10% of the cost of manufacture was added in China. It’s probably a bit more now.
      - nicoffeine 6y ago
        You are still talking about iPhone parts. China is behind on leading edge integrated circuits.[1] However, China can manufacture a computer from entirely Chinese parts.[2] America cannot manufacture a computer from entirely American parts. China not only made plans for a 100% domestically produced computer, they have already achieved it. We don't even have plans. [1] https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-development/ https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-de... [2] https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193625.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193625.shtml