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It seems like the market for a product like this (augmenting older vehicles) will diminish over time as more and more vehicles come with these features plus rol

It seems like the market for a product like this (augmenting older vehicles) will diminish over time as more and more vehicles come with these features plus rolling updates and more advanced sensors standard. If this proves to be the case, I wonder what the company will do to pivot

trulyme 6y ago
Not sure why the downvotes, it is a legit risk for this business. Remember how one could convert analog SLR cameras to digital with some kits? It wasn't a success story... EDIT: at least not for long.
stjo 6y ago
Sell directly to manufacturers? Nearly no one (except Tesla) has anything coming in the near future. Why anyone they pay billions to develop the technology in-house if they can just pay Comma.ai to integrate a sub $1000 thingy in their cars.
- t0mas88 6y ago
  Nearly all luxury brands have had lane keeping for years. Similar quality to what Tesla offers, just not marketed as broadly and typically not available on a model 3 kind of entry level. But at Tesla S price levels, all other manufacturers offer similar lane keeping and adaptive cruise capabilities.
- bri3d 6y ago
  I don't think Comma would pass compliance as any control-related automotive system, much less a self-driving one, at any established automotive manufacturer in a regulated market (US, EU). The code isn't written to any commercial audit standard that I can tell, the hardware is COTS mobile phone hardware, and change management and testing (in a formal sense) seems pretty much non-existent. Most manufacturers demand compliance with standards like ISO 26262 for liability reasons. Arguments about the value of these kinds of standards aside, it's vanishingly unlikely that any mature automaker would buy Comma's product as it stands - a major or nearly complete overhaul would be required. Now, that's not to say they couldn't sell into a less-mature company or one in an unregulated market, but I don't think the opportunity for them is as great as it seems. EDIT: On an additional reading of https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/SAFETY.md https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/SAFETY.md Comma claim to be ISO 26262 compliant on the premise that there's no real risk model, because the driver is paying attention and will simply take back control. One could call this the "Elon Model" to safety compliance. I suppose it works for some manufacturers. It does seem that starting around 2018, Comma added a C layer to their CAN intercept board (Panda) which audit-checks some safety-critical CAN messages to bounds-check the control inputs. That's... a start, but not really a detailed risk analysis model by any means.
  - DesolationJones 6y ago
    This is what Geohot said in a reddit post. "We have done most of the ISO26262 analysis, we're hiring someone right now to get it written up nicely and open sourced. (those interested can find the job posting) It's one of our goals for openpilot 1.0" They have a slightly more in depth explanation of their safety model in the "Background — safety architecture" section of this post. https://medium.com/@comma_ai/how-to-write-a-car-port-for-openpilot-7ce0785eda84 https://medium.com/@comma_ai/how-to-write-a-car-port-for-ope...
    - bri3d 6y ago
      Thank you! This is the first place I've seen this acknowledged - and, bizarrely, I read most of the PRs and commits to the `safety` part of Panda, and didn't find a single reference to the checklist in that Medium post (and, only some of the requirements seem to be implemented in most cars). It feels really late to me to be doing this, and it seems like they could use a good docs person and some, well, leadership in the project. One thing I noticed in general was that it seems like most Comma communication is side-channeled - most commits and PRs do not have much of anything in terms of description or documentation, and code review is really sparse, it feels like there's a back-room discussion happening rather than GitHub, presumably on Discord? This makes it almost impossible to understand the safety constraints and reasoning, or to audit changes to the system. But, it also sounds like they could very well be on the right track for 1.0, provided they hire the right person and they're able to clean things up. Thank you for pointing this out, cheers!
      - DesolationJones 6y ago
        >and didn't find a single reference to the checklist in that Medium post Yeah, I always thought safety.md in the panda repo was lacking and the points from the medium post should be included. Perhaps someone should make a PR. I doubt anyone who has worked on panda code hasn't seen that medium post though. >(and, only some of the requirements seem to be implemented in most cars) May or may not be what you're referring to, but the majority car brands, don't support openpilot's longitudinal control, and maintain the stock ACC system while openpilot just controls steering. That's why you may not see any acceleration/deceleration safety code. Some brands also have lkas torque severely limited by the the eps firmware, which should already be ASIL D rated. Honda for example will get around 5 degrees of max steering at highway speeds despite what openpilot says it wants, so there's no real need to add steering safety code to the panda. I think you would mostly likely see code review on merged PRs done by the community. Like look up almost any PR by deanlee. Comma employees most likely do have most of their communications side-channeled though. More code documentation does seem to also be a goal for 1.0 https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1255932750671953921 https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1255932750671953921 I think they aim for self documenting code though. It's mostly pretty readable.
leesec 6y ago
So far there are only 2 car companies with comparable quality, Tesla, and GM with Supercruise ( available on only 1 model ). This is intended to provide functionality for all the rest
- t0mas88 6y ago
  Have you seen recent Volvo, BMW and Mercedes systems? They all have good lane keeping and adaptive cruise / stop & go for several years now. And I'm sure there are many more that I'm not aware of.
  - evdoks 6y ago
    I have seen and driven recent BMW, latest VW (ID.3) and OpenPilot on Toyota RAV4 was giving me a much better experience in both lane keeping and as a product (driver monitoring, communication with the driver, overall UI and UX). BMW, VW score by having maps data integrated, that allows them to adjust speed for curves and traffic signs. However, it is not directly related to what comma is doing right now, so I am taking it out of the equation. Moreover, I think adding map data is just a matter of time for Comma.ai and I can imagine that adjusting speed in before entering a steep curve will be much better solved with vision, which seems also to be on Comma's roadmap.
lini 6y ago
Perhaps they are waiting for someone to buy them. Even though most of their software is open source, the crucial parts are still closed IP. If it is really better than the current LKA systems and has the potential to handle even more driving scenarios in the future, it will be an easy decision for a big auto company that needs to quickly catch up.

trulyme 6y ago

Not sure why the downvotes, it is a legit risk for this business. Remember how one could convert analog SLR cameras to digital with some kits? It wasn't a success story... EDIT: at least not for long.

stjo 6y ago

Sell directly to manufacturers? Nearly no one (except Tesla) has anything coming in the near future. Why anyone they pay billions to develop the technology in-house if they can just pay Comma.ai to integrate a sub $1000 thingy in their cars.

t0mas88 6y ago
Nearly all luxury brands have had lane keeping for years. Similar quality to what Tesla offers, just not marketed as broadly and typically not available on a model 3 kind of entry level. But at Tesla S price levels, all other manufacturers offer similar lane keeping and adaptive cruise capabilities.
bri3d 6y ago
I don't think Comma would pass compliance as any control-related automotive system, much less a self-driving one, at any established automotive manufacturer in a regulated market (US, EU). The code isn't written to any commercial audit standard that I can tell, the hardware is COTS mobile phone hardware, and change management and testing (in a formal sense) seems pretty much non-existent. Most manufacturers demand compliance with standards like ISO 26262 for liability reasons. Arguments about the value of these kinds of standards aside, it's vanishingly unlikely that any mature automaker would buy Comma's product as it stands - a major or nearly complete overhaul would be required. Now, that's not to say they couldn't sell into a less-mature company or one in an unregulated market, but I don't think the opportunity for them is as great as it seems. EDIT: On an additional reading of https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/SAFETY.md https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/SAFETY.md Comma claim to be ISO 26262 compliant on the premise that there's no real risk model, because the driver is paying attention and will simply take back control. One could call this the "Elon Model" to safety compliance. I suppose it works for some manufacturers. It does seem that starting around 2018, Comma added a C layer to their CAN intercept board (Panda) which audit-checks some safety-critical CAN messages to bounds-check the control inputs. That's... a start, but not really a detailed risk analysis model by any means.
- DesolationJones 6y ago
  This is what Geohot said in a reddit post. "We have done most of the ISO26262 analysis, we're hiring someone right now to get it written up nicely and open sourced. (those interested can find the job posting) It's one of our goals for openpilot 1.0" They have a slightly more in depth explanation of their safety model in the "Background — safety architecture" section of this post. https://medium.com/@comma_ai/how-to-write-a-car-port-for-openpilot-7ce0785eda84 https://medium.com/@comma_ai/how-to-write-a-car-port-for-ope...
  - bri3d 6y ago
    Thank you! This is the first place I've seen this acknowledged - and, bizarrely, I read most of the PRs and commits to the `safety` part of Panda, and didn't find a single reference to the checklist in that Medium post (and, only some of the requirements seem to be implemented in most cars). It feels really late to me to be doing this, and it seems like they could use a good docs person and some, well, leadership in the project. One thing I noticed in general was that it seems like most Comma communication is side-channeled - most commits and PRs do not have much of anything in terms of description or documentation, and code review is really sparse, it feels like there's a back-room discussion happening rather than GitHub, presumably on Discord? This makes it almost impossible to understand the safety constraints and reasoning, or to audit changes to the system. But, it also sounds like they could very well be on the right track for 1.0, provided they hire the right person and they're able to clean things up. Thank you for pointing this out, cheers!
    - DesolationJones 6y ago
      >and didn't find a single reference to the checklist in that Medium post Yeah, I always thought safety.md in the panda repo was lacking and the points from the medium post should be included. Perhaps someone should make a PR. I doubt anyone who has worked on panda code hasn't seen that medium post though. >(and, only some of the requirements seem to be implemented in most cars) May or may not be what you're referring to, but the majority car brands, don't support openpilot's longitudinal control, and maintain the stock ACC system while openpilot just controls steering. That's why you may not see any acceleration/deceleration safety code. Some brands also have lkas torque severely limited by the the eps firmware, which should already be ASIL D rated. Honda for example will get around 5 degrees of max steering at highway speeds despite what openpilot says it wants, so there's no real need to add steering safety code to the panda. I think you would mostly likely see code review on merged PRs done by the community. Like look up almost any PR by deanlee. Comma employees most likely do have most of their communications side-channeled though. More code documentation does seem to also be a goal for 1.0 https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1255932750671953921 https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1255932750671953921 I think they aim for self documenting code though. It's mostly pretty readable.

leesec 6y ago

So far there are only 2 car companies with comparable quality, Tesla, and GM with Supercruise ( available on only 1 model ). This is intended to provide functionality for all the rest

t0mas88 6y ago
Have you seen recent Volvo, BMW and Mercedes systems? They all have good lane keeping and adaptive cruise / stop & go for several years now. And I'm sure there are many more that I'm not aware of.
- evdoks 6y ago
  I have seen and driven recent BMW, latest VW (ID.3) and OpenPilot on Toyota RAV4 was giving me a much better experience in both lane keeping and as a product (driver monitoring, communication with the driver, overall UI and UX). BMW, VW score by having maps data integrated, that allows them to adjust speed for curves and traffic signs. However, it is not directly related to what comma is doing right now, so I am taking it out of the equation. Moreover, I think adding map data is just a matter of time for Comma.ai and I can imagine that adjusting speed in before entering a steep curve will be much better solved with vision, which seems also to be on Comma's roadmap.

lini 6y ago

Perhaps they are waiting for someone to buy them. Even though most of their software is open source, the crucial parts are still closed IP. If it is really better than the current LKA systems and has the potential to handle even more driving scenarios in the future, it will be an easy decision for a big auto company that needs to quickly catch up.