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For clarification: You're saying that because your wife got mugged you felt that Seattle was "less orderly" (I'm assuming this means "higher crime") than Baltim

by moate 6y ago

For clarification: You're saying that because your wife got mugged you felt that Seattle was "less orderly" (I'm assuming this means "higher crime") than Baltimore (which has one of the highest crime rates in the country)? I get that personal connections can be a thing (my sister hated Paris because some creep spit on her after she didn't want to flirt with him) but you realize that statistically that data doesn't support your statement right?

burnthrow 6y ago
I've not yet found a reliable way to experience statistics.
- moate 6y ago
  Of course not. But "this city is unsafe because something bad happened to me" is useless data to anyone other than you 5 minutes prior to when that thing happened. I mean if someone said "would you rather move to a city with a 1% violent crime rate where you know someone who's part of that 1% or a different city with a 7% violent crime rate but nobody you know has been affected", you can do whatever you want but I'll take the first option. (inb4 "different neighborhoods", "crime rates aren't the same across all demographics", etc)
  - burnthrow 6y ago
    You have a lot to say!
rayiner 6y ago
> For clarification: You're saying that because your wife got mugged you felt that Seattle was "less orderly" (I'm assuming this means "higher crime") than Baltimore (which has one of the highest crime rates in the country)? No, I mean "less orderly." The "mugger" was more of a drunk opportunist than a serious criminal. This sort of low-level disorder seemed quite tolerated in Seattle, even compared to Baltimore. Of course, part of the reason for the move was going somewhere safer than downtown Baltimore. But fun fact, Seattle's property crime rate, at 46 per 1,000, is higher than Baltimore's, at 43 per 1,000. The property crime rate in New York City is a third as high, at 16 per 100,000.
- moate 6y ago
  I still don’t get what “order” vs “disorder” means here. Maybe the crime stats are confusing the issue.
  - dionidium 6y ago
    I'm from St. Louis, which has a much higher crime rate than Seattle, and I think I can understand the distinction. A lot of west coast cities have a sort of chaotic street feel -- lots of homelessness, open-air drug dealing and use, people yelling things in the street, and so on. Yes, St. Louis has many more homicides, but most homicides aren't random, so it's not like the baseline homicide rate affects the typical resident while walking down the street on a Tuesday. (Also: most of those homicides take place in a handful of neighborhoods you're very unlikely to be walking through, in the first place.) But lots of homelessness and open-air drug-dealing (and so on) can make a pretty big impact on what walking down the street on a Tuesday feels like. (I'm not making an argument that one is more desirable than the other. I'm just noting that I think I understand the distinction.)
    - rayiner 6y ago
      Yes that’s what I mean.

by moate 6y ago

burnthrow 6y ago

I've not yet found a reliable way to experience statistics.

moate 6y ago
Of course not. But "this city is unsafe because something bad happened to me" is useless data to anyone other than you 5 minutes prior to when that thing happened. I mean if someone said "would you rather move to a city with a 1% violent crime rate where you know someone who's part of that 1% or a different city with a 7% violent crime rate but nobody you know has been affected", you can do whatever you want but I'll take the first option. (inb4 "different neighborhoods", "crime rates aren't the same across all demographics", etc)
- burnthrow 6y ago
  You have a lot to say!

rayiner 6y ago

> For clarification: You're saying that because your wife got mugged you felt that Seattle was "less orderly" (I'm assuming this means "higher crime") than Baltimore (which has one of the highest crime rates in the country)? No, I mean "less orderly." The "mugger" was more of a drunk opportunist than a serious criminal. This sort of low-level disorder seemed quite tolerated in Seattle, even compared to Baltimore. Of course, part of the reason for the move was going somewhere safer than downtown Baltimore. But fun fact, Seattle's property crime rate, at 46 per 1,000, is higher than Baltimore's, at 43 per 1,000. The property crime rate in New York City is a third as high, at 16 per 100,000.

moate 6y ago
I still don’t get what “order” vs “disorder” means here. Maybe the crime stats are confusing the issue.
- dionidium 6y ago
  I'm from St. Louis, which has a much higher crime rate than Seattle, and I think I can understand the distinction. A lot of west coast cities have a sort of chaotic street feel -- lots of homelessness, open-air drug dealing and use, people yelling things in the street, and so on. Yes, St. Louis has many more homicides, but most homicides aren't random, so it's not like the baseline homicide rate affects the typical resident while walking down the street on a Tuesday. (Also: most of those homicides take place in a handful of neighborhoods you're very unlikely to be walking through, in the first place.) But lots of homelessness and open-air drug-dealing (and so on) can make a pretty big impact on what walking down the street on a Tuesday feels like. (I'm not making an argument that one is more desirable than the other. I'm just noting that I think I understand the distinction.)
  - rayiner 6y ago
    Yes that’s what I mean.