3 ms·

That's why it says "In another 20 years" and not "today". Because you can bet that it'll be on everybody's minds in 20 years.

by osobo 6y ago

Aerroon 6y ago
But why? Are the effects of climate change within 100 years so bad that we will worry about the survival of humanity? Isn't that just an exaggeration?
- rodonn 6y ago
  The estimates I've seen mostly suggest damages in the range of 0.5-10% of GDP https://www.brookings.edu/research/ten-facts-about-the-economics-of-climate-change-and-climate-policy/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/ten-facts-about-the-econo... Here's a quote from the IPCC consensus report: "For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers (medium evidence, high agreement). Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance, and many other aspects of socioeconomic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is large relative to the impact of climate change." https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap10_FINAL.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap... Another IPCC quote: "Under the no-policy baseline scenario, temperature rises by 3.66°C by 2100, resulting in a global gross domestic product (GDP) loss of 2.6% (5–95% percentile range 0.5–8.2%), compared with 0.3% (0.1–0.5%) by 2100 under the 1.5°C scenario and 0.5% (0.1–1.0%) in the 2°C scenario." https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap10_FINAL.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap...
  - davidhbolton 6y ago
    I call b*llshit on these claims. Where is the extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims? It isn't there. 20 years ago people were saying it'll be all over by 2010. Kyoto did nothing. Computer models don't tell half the story.
- sliken 6y ago
  Dunno. Seems like the oceans are dying. Ever more efficient fishing, acidification, and increasing pollution are taking a heavy toll. The ocean based food web might just collapse. Countries that depend on the ocean for food will get less stable and food prices will rise. Farms are increasingly penned in by developments, and when the weather changes enough for the new ideal areas for farms, will likely to be over developed already. Farms placed poorly will have more crop failures, and spend more energy in attempt to mitigate lack of water, healthy soil, lack of sun, extreme weather events, etc. Bees might well not survive, complicating any farming that depends on them. Rain is becoming more acidic, making it harder on plants. Seems like many scientists are ringing alarm bells, even if we aren't sure what the world will look like in 20 years, seems like a bad idea to roll the dice and hope for the best.

That's why it says "In another 20 years" and not "today". Because you can bet that it'll be on everybody's minds in 20 years.

by osobo 6y ago

That's why it says "In another 20 years" and not "today". Because you can bet that it'll be on everybody's minds in 20 years.

Aerroon 6y ago

But why? Are the effects of climate change within 100 years so bad that we will worry about the survival of humanity? Isn't that just an exaggeration?

rodonn 6y ago
The estimates I've seen mostly suggest damages in the range of 0.5-10% of GDP https://www.brookings.edu/research/ten-facts-about-the-economics-of-climate-change-and-climate-policy/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/ten-facts-about-the-econo... Here's a quote from the IPCC consensus report: "For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers (medium evidence, high agreement). Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance, and many other aspects of socioeconomic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is large relative to the impact of climate change." https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap10_FINAL.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap... Another IPCC quote: "Under the no-policy baseline scenario, temperature rises by 3.66°C by 2100, resulting in a global gross domestic product (GDP) loss of 2.6% (5–95% percentile range 0.5–8.2%), compared with 0.3% (0.1–0.5%) by 2100 under the 1.5°C scenario and 0.5% (0.1–1.0%) in the 2°C scenario." https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap10_FINAL.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap...
- davidhbolton 6y ago
  I call b*llshit on these claims. Where is the extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims? It isn't there. 20 years ago people were saying it'll be all over by 2010. Kyoto did nothing. Computer models don't tell half the story.
sliken 6y ago
Dunno. Seems like the oceans are dying. Ever more efficient fishing, acidification, and increasing pollution are taking a heavy toll. The ocean based food web might just collapse. Countries that depend on the ocean for food will get less stable and food prices will rise. Farms are increasingly penned in by developments, and when the weather changes enough for the new ideal areas for farms, will likely to be over developed already. Farms placed poorly will have more crop failures, and spend more energy in attempt to mitigate lack of water, healthy soil, lack of sun, extreme weather events, etc. Bees might well not survive, complicating any farming that depends on them. Rain is becoming more acidic, making it harder on plants. Seems like many scientists are ringing alarm bells, even if we aren't sure what the world will look like in 20 years, seems like a bad idea to roll the dice and hope for the best.