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Nuclear Fusion has made significant progress, and generally speaking the joke has been "its 20 years away and always will be". Only starting 2020 did people sta

Nuclear Fusion has made significant progress, and generally speaking the joke has been "its 20 years away and always will be". Only starting 2020 did people start to estimate shorter timelines, with ITER expecting to have net positive energy between 2025 and 2035. There are several fusion startups/projects looking to beat ITER, including SPARC and Commonwealth. In 2020 a detailed peer review of the system could find no major obvious flaws. SPARC is hoping to be done by 2025 with net postiive energy probably a few years after that. Neither ITER nor SPARC require any materials breakthroughs, but do rely on breakthroughs made over the last 30 years. People's expectations about a faster fusion timeline were always based on funding that never manifested. See https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png We are in the ballpark of 1976 timeline expectations given the amount of spending we committed to fusion.

nl 6y ago
ITER was supposed to achieve fusion in 2016, but that has now been delayed until 2026: When ITER first received formal approval in 2006, it was slated to first achieve fusion in 2016, a date which has since been pushed back at least 10 years. Issues with component construction and design disagreements have been blamed for the delays.[1] > People's expectations about a faster fusion timeline were always based on funding that never manifested. ITER was initially budgeted €5 billion which was provided, then jumped to €15 billion, which was also provided: The project was officially begun in 2006 with an estimated cost of €5 billion and date for the beginning of operations—or first plasma—in 2016. Those figures quickly changed to €15 billion and 2019, but confidence in those numbers has eroded over the years.[2] And yet the timeline just for ITER to do an experimental run is still 10 years, and then: If everything goes to plan, ITER will pave the way for another reactor, called DEMO, which will expand the technologies perfected by ITER to an industrial scale, and hopefully prove that nuclear fusion is a viable source of energy.[2] > See https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png Very unclear where these predictions and budget numbers come from. Apart from the 1976 budget, the rest just seem to be made up, and the end dates seem arbitrary. [1] https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/why-nuclear-fusion-is-always-30-years-away https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/why-nuclear-fusi... [2] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/11/iter-fusion-project-take-least-6-years-longer-planned https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/11/iter-fusion-project-...

nl 6y ago

ITER was supposed to achieve fusion in 2016, but that has now been delayed until 2026: When ITER first received formal approval in 2006, it was slated to first achieve fusion in 2016, a date which has since been pushed back at least 10 years. Issues with component construction and design disagreements have been blamed for the delays.[1] > People's expectations about a faster fusion timeline were always based on funding that never manifested. ITER was initially budgeted €5 billion which was provided, then jumped to €15 billion, which was also provided: The project was officially begun in 2006 with an estimated cost of €5 billion and date for the beginning of operations—or first plasma—in 2016. Those figures quickly changed to €15 billion and 2019, but confidence in those numbers has eroded over the years.[2] And yet the timeline just for ITER to do an experimental run is still 10 years, and then: If everything goes to plan, ITER will pave the way for another reactor, called DEMO, which will expand the technologies perfected by ITER to an industrial scale, and hopefully prove that nuclear fusion is a viable source of energy.[2] > See https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png Very unclear where these predictions and budget numbers come from. Apart from the 1976 budget, the rest just seem to be made up, and the end dates seem arbitrary. [1] https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/why-nuclear-fusion-is-always-30-years-away https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/why-nuclear-fusi... [2] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/11/iter-fusion-project-take-least-6-years-longer-planned https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/11/iter-fusion-project-...