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Completely agree, would not want to live in China either. My comment was a response to parent, who feels betrayed by science, because lockdowns were supposed t

Completely agree, would not want to live in China either. My comment was a response to parent, who feels betrayed by science, because lockdowns were supposed to work. What I will say though is that there is no win scenario. It's lose-lose, either way. A non-Covid world does not exist anymore. Lockdowns come with exactly the downsides you describe. No lockdowns come with an overload of the health care system and high death tolls. Light lockdowns are a combination of both. Both proponents and opponents share the same motivations by the way - to be able to see relatives, meet other people etc.

collyw 6y ago
> Lockdowns come with exactly the downsides you describe. No lockdowns come with an overload of the health care system and high death tolls. Please stop pushing the unproven narrative that lockdowns stop the healthcare system being overloaded. It's morally wrong to push for such a destructive policy without good supporting evidence. Sweden, Japan, Uraguay, South Korea. No lockdown. No problem for any of those healthcare systems. It can be easily shown that curves were flattening before lockdown had a chance to take effect. This is about as close as we will get to a controlled trail on lockdowns. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936v...
- Pyramus 6y ago
  You are absolutely right, lockdowns are just a proxy, the real factor is behaviour. If everybody behaves lockdown-like, lockdown can be avoided. You don't need lockdowns to stop the healthcare system from being overloaded, if everybody wears masks, socially distances, agrees to track, trace and isolate programmes, there is mass testing, no incentives for people to come to work sick, etc. One year on we have a pretty good estimate how each behaviour/measure influences the reproduction rate of Covid-19. > Please stop pushing the unproven narrative that lockdowns stop the healthcare system being overloaded. I don't understand what exactly is unproven. Lockdowns correlate with behaviour. The Chinese healthcare system was completely overwhelmed, even with CCP spin on things. In Bergamo, Italy, the dead were carried away in army trucks. Look at fatality rates for both countries at the time.
  - collyw 6y ago
    > If everybody behaves lockdown-like, lockdown can be avoided. Speculation without evidence. Lockdowns are apolitical decision, not a scientific one. Lockdowns can be avoided if governments choose not to implement them. But most seem to be relishing in the emergency powers given to them.

collyw 6y ago

> Lockdowns come with exactly the downsides you describe. No lockdowns come with an overload of the health care system and high death tolls. Please stop pushing the unproven narrative that lockdowns stop the healthcare system being overloaded. It's morally wrong to push for such a destructive policy without good supporting evidence. Sweden, Japan, Uraguay, South Korea. No lockdown. No problem for any of those healthcare systems. It can be easily shown that curves were flattening before lockdown had a chance to take effect. This is about as close as we will get to a controlled trail on lockdowns. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936v...

Pyramus 6y ago
You are absolutely right, lockdowns are just a proxy, the real factor is behaviour. If everybody behaves lockdown-like, lockdown can be avoided. You don't need lockdowns to stop the healthcare system from being overloaded, if everybody wears masks, socially distances, agrees to track, trace and isolate programmes, there is mass testing, no incentives for people to come to work sick, etc. One year on we have a pretty good estimate how each behaviour/measure influences the reproduction rate of Covid-19. > Please stop pushing the unproven narrative that lockdowns stop the healthcare system being overloaded. I don't understand what exactly is unproven. Lockdowns correlate with behaviour. The Chinese healthcare system was completely overwhelmed, even with CCP spin on things. In Bergamo, Italy, the dead were carried away in army trucks. Look at fatality rates for both countries at the time.
- collyw 6y ago
  > If everybody behaves lockdown-like, lockdown can be avoided. Speculation without evidence. Lockdowns are apolitical decision, not a scientific one. Lockdowns can be avoided if governments choose not to implement them. But most seem to be relishing in the emergency powers given to them.