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> Even for younger adults, chances of dying if infected with Covid are much higher than that. For a healthy young adult, chances of dying from Covid are in the

> Even for younger adults, chances of dying if infected with Covid are much higher than that. For a healthy young adult, chances of dying from Covid are in the same ballpark.

maxerickson 6y ago
The above is ~1/100,000. IFR (which is compatible with what I said) for 19 and younger is 3/100,000, but that includes younger people that are even less impacted. So it is sort of the same ballpark for the very youngest adults, but a factor of 3 isn't nothing. It's higher for people in their 20s already. We can be talking about different things though, as it isn't 100% likely a given person will be infected.
- mlyle 6y ago
  It's likely pretty close to the same. 2-4x the rate if infected; about a 1/2-1/4th chance of becoming infected eventually if no vaccine.
monopoledance 6y ago
Thing is, the "not healthy" group is bigger than most people think. Anaphylaxis is a very controllable situation, whereas severe COVID is not. Non of the reacting subjects hasn't had a history of anaphylaxis AFAIK. Nothing in the mRNA vaccines was chosen to enhance immune response, nothing is an adjuvant as with other vaccines. On the contrary, the polymers and co are there to protect the mRNA from immune system clearance (and are used in other non-vaccine medications too). It's worth noting, an allergic reaction is mediated by a completely different branch of the immune system. Non of the "adjuvants" aren't to be found in common household items, food and cosmetics, which is probably why the allergic people reacted in the first place. Very few, very allergic people, seem to react to these. If so, you treat them with an antihistamine and similar.
- mlyle 6y ago
  > Nothing in the mRNA vaccines was chosen to enhance immune response, nothing is an adjuvant as with other vaccines. This isn't -exactly- true. There's no traditional adjuvant added, but... the fact that the formulation caused adjuvant-like effects was seen as a feature, not a bug. Added care to minimize immune response has been used in the development of mRNA drug platforms > Non of the "adjuvants" aren't to be found in common household items, food and cosmetics You can find PEG in lots of things, but PEGylated large molecules aren't exactly common items around the home.
  - monopoledance 6y ago
    > but... the fact that the formulation caused adjuvant-like effects was seen as a feature, not a bug. > Added care to minimize immune response has been used in the development of mRNA drug platforms I don't get it. Either they want the immune response or not. Do you have a link to source your claim, they favored "adjuvant-like effects"?
    - mlyle 6y ago
      > I don't get it. Either they want the immune response or not. When mRNA is used in typical drug platforms-- you don't want the immune response. mRNA vaccine platforms-- you do want the vaccine response. So, e.g. Moderna has an "N1GL" formulation intended, in part, to tamp down reactogenicity that it is using for its drugs in development, and "V1GL" formulation intended for vaccines where they don't care so much. N1GL both more completely envelops the mRNA and consists of components that themselves are less "adjuvant". (And N1GL is probably not quite good enough, yet...) edit: Now it seems there's N2GL where they claim causes much less reactogenicity/toxicity on repeated administration and produces less anti-PEG IgM e.g. https://zerista.s3.amazonaws.com/item_files/f228/attachments/413374/original/83_2803.pdf https://zerista.s3.amazonaws.com/item_files/f228/attachments... slides 19-20
      - monopoledance 6y ago
        But the mRNA vaccine isn't what the immune system is responding to directly, but the spike protein produced by the cells, which got infused with the mRNA. Anything that makes the immune system attack the vaccine, prevents the delivery of the mRNA. Sorry, I don't think your reasoning is sound and very based.

> Even for younger adults, chances of dying if infected with Covid are much higher than that. For a healthy young adult, chances of dying from Covid are in the same ballpark.

maxerickson 6y ago

The above is ~1/100,000. IFR (which is compatible with what I said) for 19 and younger is 3/100,000, but that includes younger people that are even less impacted. So it is sort of the same ballpark for the very youngest adults, but a factor of 3 isn't nothing. It's higher for people in their 20s already. We can be talking about different things though, as it isn't 100% likely a given person will be infected.

mlyle 6y ago
It's likely pretty close to the same. 2-4x the rate if infected; about a 1/2-1/4th chance of becoming infected eventually if no vaccine.

monopoledance 6y ago

Thing is, the "not healthy" group is bigger than most people think. Anaphylaxis is a very controllable situation, whereas severe COVID is not. Non of the reacting subjects hasn't had a history of anaphylaxis AFAIK. Nothing in the mRNA vaccines was chosen to enhance immune response, nothing is an adjuvant as with other vaccines. On the contrary, the polymers and co are there to protect the mRNA from immune system clearance (and are used in other non-vaccine medications too). It's worth noting, an allergic reaction is mediated by a completely different branch of the immune system. Non of the "adjuvants" aren't to be found in common household items, food and cosmetics, which is probably why the allergic people reacted in the first place. Very few, very allergic people, seem to react to these. If so, you treat them with an antihistamine and similar.

mlyle 6y ago
> Nothing in the mRNA vaccines was chosen to enhance immune response, nothing is an adjuvant as with other vaccines. This isn't -exactly- true. There's no traditional adjuvant added, but... the fact that the formulation caused adjuvant-like effects was seen as a feature, not a bug. Added care to minimize immune response has been used in the development of mRNA drug platforms > Non of the "adjuvants" aren't to be found in common household items, food and cosmetics You can find PEG in lots of things, but PEGylated large molecules aren't exactly common items around the home.
- monopoledance 6y ago
  > but... the fact that the formulation caused adjuvant-like effects was seen as a feature, not a bug. > Added care to minimize immune response has been used in the development of mRNA drug platforms I don't get it. Either they want the immune response or not. Do you have a link to source your claim, they favored "adjuvant-like effects"?
  - mlyle 6y ago
    > I don't get it. Either they want the immune response or not. When mRNA is used in typical drug platforms-- you don't want the immune response. mRNA vaccine platforms-- you do want the vaccine response. So, e.g. Moderna has an "N1GL" formulation intended, in part, to tamp down reactogenicity that it is using for its drugs in development, and "V1GL" formulation intended for vaccines where they don't care so much. N1GL both more completely envelops the mRNA and consists of components that themselves are less "adjuvant". (And N1GL is probably not quite good enough, yet...) edit: Now it seems there's N2GL where they claim causes much less reactogenicity/toxicity on repeated administration and produces less anti-PEG IgM e.g. https://zerista.s3.amazonaws.com/item_files/f228/attachments/413374/original/83_2803.pdf https://zerista.s3.amazonaws.com/item_files/f228/attachments... slides 19-20
    - monopoledance 6y ago
      But the mRNA vaccine isn't what the immune system is responding to directly, but the spike protein produced by the cells, which got infused with the mRNA. Anything that makes the immune system attack the vaccine, prevents the delivery of the mRNA. Sorry, I don't think your reasoning is sound and very based.