3 ms·

The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the policy response is largely same and maybe also because the virus' natural cycle is at t

The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the policy response is largely same and maybe also because the virus' natural cycle is at the same stage. Probably the latter. Mortality doesn't seem to be affected by (covid specific) policy: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27719/w27719.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27719/w277... https://ideas.repec.org/p/wai/econwp/20-06.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/wai/econwp/20-06.html https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5... (there are lots of studies like these, I just picked three more or less at random)

oblio 6y ago
Interesting. In Luxembourg at least you can see the clear seasonal variation and also the enforcement of stricter lockdowns pretty much 1:1 in death rates and infection rates, accounting for the ~2-3 week delay in infection intervals.
- StavrosK 6y ago
  Same in Greece: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/ Lockdown started in November, and relaxed on Jan 15 or so.
- infinitysky 6y ago
  Well, as I saw in Luxembourg you surely can’t experience any of the vaccination effects yet. Is there a government there or what is going on?
  - oblio 6y ago
    For vaccinations? Nope, too few people have been vaccinated. But the claim above was for <<lockdowns>>, for which we do have data.
- thu2111 6y ago
  When do you consider Luxembourg's lockdowns to have started and ended? Looking here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=~LUX&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS... ... the curves look pretty similar to that of many other countries. There was apparently (according to Wikipedia) one between Nov 23rd and Dec 15th but that appears to have made no real difference, in fact, numbers per million were stable during those dates when they had previously been falling.

oblio 6y ago

Interesting. In Luxembourg at least you can see the clear seasonal variation and also the enforcement of stricter lockdowns pretty much 1:1 in death rates and infection rates, accounting for the ~2-3 week delay in infection intervals.

StavrosK 6y ago
Same in Greece: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/ Lockdown started in November, and relaxed on Jan 15 or so.
infinitysky 6y ago
Well, as I saw in Luxembourg you surely can’t experience any of the vaccination effects yet. Is there a government there or what is going on?
- oblio 6y ago
  For vaccinations? Nope, too few people have been vaccinated. But the claim above was for <<lockdowns>>, for which we do have data.
thu2111 6y ago
When do you consider Luxembourg's lockdowns to have started and ended? Looking here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=~LUX&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS... ... the curves look pretty similar to that of many other countries. There was apparently (according to Wikipedia) one between Nov 23rd and Dec 15th but that appears to have made no real difference, in fact, numbers per million were stable during those dates when they had previously been falling.