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Exactly. I don't understand why it is so unpopular to ask this obvious question? The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the polic

Exactly. I don't understand why it is so unpopular to ask this obvious question? The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the policy response is largely same and maybe also because the virus' natural cycle is at the same stage. Given how much further Israel is, one would have expected it to stick much more out in the statistics. But it does not?

giantDinosaur 6y ago
It's not that hard to think of reasons why, even as effective vaccinations go up, deaths/cases may not decline in perfect symmetry. For example, certain groups may start caring less once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, restrictions may be eased as more people are vaccinated, certain groups may be less likely to want vaccinations so a local epidemic occurs... etc.
amitport 6y ago
I live in Israel. There a three big points to make: 1 - There is a delay. While now we have more and more vaccinated people, much of the current cases in the hospital got infected before that. 2 - It changes from community to community but in general we have many people that are really not "disciplined". Either they believe coronovirus does not exist or it won't get them or that god will save them or the herd immunity is high enough (when it isn't)... excuses all over 3 - The vaccinations are not evenly distributed in the population (for lack of demand, supply is there). While in some places you have 70% in other communities you have 2%. (and those with 2% act like there's no coronavirus, see point 2)
- helge9210 6y ago
  > Either they believe coronovirus does not exist or it won't get them or that god will save them You can take case of yeshivas (religious schools): some have 80% of infected and recovered students. So when authorities come to the head of the school with a story about deadly virus, they don't understand each other. And examples of 90 years old elders dying from COVID-19 are meet with question "What you expected them to do instead at this age?"
- aphextron 6y ago
  > While in some places you have 70% in other communities you have 2%. (and those with 2% act like there's no coronavirus, see point 2) I've come to notice this over the last year. We now effectively live in two completely diverged realities. In one, coronavirus is a serious danger that affects our behavior and dominates every aspect of life, where we follow the news of new vaccines and declining case numbers with gratitude and relief, hoping to god that life can return to normal some day. In the other reality, COVID is just a flu. Maybe you might get it but it's not a big deal. Life goes on as normal and you are happily taking advantage of deals on travel, low crowds, and you get annoyed at being reminded to wear your mask. Meeting with friends, going to church, eating at restaurants. All of this is fine because you've convinced yourself it's no big deal. It's bizarre, and it has torn many of my personal relationships apart. I'm not sure how we ever fix this.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - helge9210 6y ago
    Which reality, in your opinion, is the real one according to measurements?
    - ars 6y ago
      Both are real, to different people, in different communities.
      - aphextron 6y ago
        Exactly my point. I don't know enough to make a value judgement one way or the other, simply pointing out how shocking it is when you come into contact with someone from an alternate reality to your own.
        ars 6y ago
        And I don't mean real as in "belief", I mean real as in actual factual reality. So it's not an "alternate" reality (that's usually used as pejorative), it's a different situation to your own.
thu2111 6y ago
The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the policy response is largely same and maybe also because the virus' natural cycle is at the same stage. Probably the latter. Mortality doesn't seem to be affected by (covid specific) policy: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27719/w27719.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27719/w277... https://ideas.repec.org/p/wai/econwp/20-06.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/wai/econwp/20-06.html https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5... (there are lots of studies like these, I just picked three more or less at random)
- oblio 6y ago
  Interesting. In Luxembourg at least you can see the clear seasonal variation and also the enforcement of stricter lockdowns pretty much 1:1 in death rates and infection rates, accounting for the ~2-3 week delay in infection intervals.
  - StavrosK 6y ago
    Same in Greece: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/ Lockdown started in November, and relaxed on Jan 15 or so.
  - infinitysky 6y ago
    Well, as I saw in Luxembourg you surely can’t experience any of the vaccination effects yet. Is there a government there or what is going on?
    - oblio 6y ago
      For vaccinations? Nope, too few people have been vaccinated. But the claim above was for <<lockdowns>>, for which we do have data.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    When do you consider Luxembourg's lockdowns to have started and ended? Looking here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=~LUX&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS... ... the curves look pretty similar to that of many other countries. There was apparently (according to Wikipedia) one between Nov 23rd and Dec 15th but that appears to have made no real difference, in fact, numbers per million were stable during those dates when they had previously been falling.
strulovich 6y ago
There an extra consideration to add here perhaps: the US experienced a post Christmas and New Year spike. That would be less pronounced in Israel where the vast majority does not celebrate Christmas and takes the New Year less seriously. (Hanukkah, the Jewish holiday of the similar time was earlier this year. And although some Arabs celebrate Christmas, many others are Muslim and do not)
- ars 6y ago
  Also Hanukkah is not a major holiday in Judaism. It gets inflated importance in the US because of proximity to major Christian holidays. The major holidays in Judaism were 5 months ago, just when the lockdowns started.

giantDinosaur 6y ago

It's not that hard to think of reasons why, even as effective vaccinations go up, deaths/cases may not decline in perfect symmetry. For example, certain groups may start caring less once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, restrictions may be eased as more people are vaccinated, certain groups may be less likely to want vaccinations so a local epidemic occurs... etc.

amitport 6y ago

I live in Israel. There a three big points to make: 1 - There is a delay. While now we have more and more vaccinated people, much of the current cases in the hospital got infected before that. 2 - It changes from community to community but in general we have many people that are really not "disciplined". Either they believe coronovirus does not exist or it won't get them or that god will save them or the herd immunity is high enough (when it isn't)... excuses all over 3 - The vaccinations are not evenly distributed in the population (for lack of demand, supply is there). While in some places you have 70% in other communities you have 2%. (and those with 2% act like there's no coronavirus, see point 2)

helge9210 6y ago
> Either they believe coronovirus does not exist or it won't get them or that god will save them You can take case of yeshivas (religious schools): some have 80% of infected and recovered students. So when authorities come to the head of the school with a story about deadly virus, they don't understand each other. And examples of 90 years old elders dying from COVID-19 are meet with question "What you expected them to do instead at this age?"
aphextron 6y ago
> While in some places you have 70% in other communities you have 2%. (and those with 2% act like there's no coronavirus, see point 2) I've come to notice this over the last year. We now effectively live in two completely diverged realities. In one, coronavirus is a serious danger that affects our behavior and dominates every aspect of life, where we follow the news of new vaccines and declining case numbers with gratitude and relief, hoping to god that life can return to normal some day. In the other reality, COVID is just a flu. Maybe you might get it but it's not a big deal. Life goes on as normal and you are happily taking advantage of deals on travel, low crowds, and you get annoyed at being reminded to wear your mask. Meeting with friends, going to church, eating at restaurants. All of this is fine because you've convinced yourself it's no big deal. It's bizarre, and it has torn many of my personal relationships apart. I'm not sure how we ever fix this.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- helge9210 6y ago
  Which reality, in your opinion, is the real one according to measurements?
  - ars 6y ago
    Both are real, to different people, in different communities.
    - aphextron 6y ago
      Exactly my point. I don't know enough to make a value judgement one way or the other, simply pointing out how shocking it is when you come into contact with someone from an alternate reality to your own.
      - ars 6y ago
        And I don't mean real as in "belief", I mean real as in actual factual reality. So it's not an "alternate" reality (that's usually used as pejorative), it's a different situation to your own.

thu2111 6y ago

The numbers are falling all over the western world; probably because the policy response is largely same and maybe also because the virus' natural cycle is at the same stage. Probably the latter. Mortality doesn't seem to be affected by (covid specific) policy: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27719/w27719.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27719/w277... https://ideas.repec.org/p/wai/econwp/20-06.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/wai/econwp/20-06.html https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5... (there are lots of studies like these, I just picked three more or less at random)

oblio 6y ago
Interesting. In Luxembourg at least you can see the clear seasonal variation and also the enforcement of stricter lockdowns pretty much 1:1 in death rates and infection rates, accounting for the ~2-3 week delay in infection intervals.
- StavrosK 6y ago
  Same in Greece: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/ Lockdown started in November, and relaxed on Jan 15 or so.
- infinitysky 6y ago
  Well, as I saw in Luxembourg you surely can’t experience any of the vaccination effects yet. Is there a government there or what is going on?
  - oblio 6y ago
    For vaccinations? Nope, too few people have been vaccinated. But the claim above was for <<lockdowns>>, for which we do have data.
- thu2111 6y ago
  When do you consider Luxembourg's lockdowns to have started and ended? Looking here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=~LUX&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS... ... the curves look pretty similar to that of many other countries. There was apparently (according to Wikipedia) one between Nov 23rd and Dec 15th but that appears to have made no real difference, in fact, numbers per million were stable during those dates when they had previously been falling.

strulovich 6y ago

There an extra consideration to add here perhaps: the US experienced a post Christmas and New Year spike. That would be less pronounced in Israel where the vast majority does not celebrate Christmas and takes the New Year less seriously. (Hanukkah, the Jewish holiday of the similar time was earlier this year. And although some Arabs celebrate Christmas, many others are Muslim and do not)

ars 6y ago
Also Hanukkah is not a major holiday in Judaism. It gets inflated importance in the US because of proximity to major Christian holidays. The major holidays in Judaism were 5 months ago, just when the lockdowns started.