6 ms·

Someone's comment raising fear about unmitigated transmission risk got flagged to death, so here's the comment I originally wrote in response to it: https://ww

Someone's comment raising fear about unmitigated transmission risk got flagged to death, so here's the comment I originally wrote in response to it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251283v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251283v... The most recent un-reviewed publication looking into viral load, which is likely associated with the risk of transmission. Lay reading: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/feb/09/pfizerbiontech-covid-vaccine-reducing-viral-load-data-israel-suggests https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/feb/09/pfizerbionte...

throwaway4good 6y ago
I am just a layperson. But given the scale of these vaccination programs; I think the question of how vaccination can affect the natural evolution of the virus is one that at least should be allowed to ask.
- ImaCake 6y ago
  I am a biologist, and not a virologist. I would suspect we are never getting rid of COVID. But vaccination could turn it into something not much worse than a cold or at least the flu. The virus will mutate and change in ways that make it more infectious, but probably not more virulent.
  - throwaway4good 6y ago
    The comment that got flag-killed linked to the wikipedia of Marek's disease. A disease that resides amongst chickens for which there exists a vaccine that prevents the disease but not the spread of the virus. And is an example of a scary story (told by antivaxxers I assume) where the introduction of a vaccine allowed the virus flourish and turn itself into a much deadlier form it otherwise would not have had.
    - ImaCake 6y ago
      Well COVID is already a near-worst case scenario for human civilization. Anything much more nasty would not leave any room for denialism (and presumably would burn itself out fast), anything much less nasty would have meant double the Flu hospitalisation burden and no lockdowns. It is hard to see an outcome where the vaccines make things worse, but I admit biology is full of surprises.
      - nindalf 6y ago
        I hate to be the “it could be worse guy” but it’s possible for it to evolve to a strain that has a higher death rate. Perhaps one that kills younger people as well as older people. Things could always be worse. Sorry for being a Debbie downer.
      - jMyles 6y ago
        Wait 'til you hear about antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
      - ssully 6y ago
        If I have learned anything over the last few years it's that things could always be worse, and that denialism will exist in any scenario or condition.

throwaway4good 6y ago

I am just a layperson. But given the scale of these vaccination programs; I think the question of how vaccination can affect the natural evolution of the virus is one that at least should be allowed to ask.

ImaCake 6y ago
I am a biologist, and not a virologist. I would suspect we are never getting rid of COVID. But vaccination could turn it into something not much worse than a cold or at least the flu. The virus will mutate and change in ways that make it more infectious, but probably not more virulent.
- throwaway4good 6y ago
  The comment that got flag-killed linked to the wikipedia of Marek's disease. A disease that resides amongst chickens for which there exists a vaccine that prevents the disease but not the spread of the virus. And is an example of a scary story (told by antivaxxers I assume) where the introduction of a vaccine allowed the virus flourish and turn itself into a much deadlier form it otherwise would not have had.
  - ImaCake 6y ago
    Well COVID is already a near-worst case scenario for human civilization. Anything much more nasty would not leave any room for denialism (and presumably would burn itself out fast), anything much less nasty would have meant double the Flu hospitalisation burden and no lockdowns. It is hard to see an outcome where the vaccines make things worse, but I admit biology is full of surprises.
    - nindalf 6y ago
      I hate to be the “it could be worse guy” but it’s possible for it to evolve to a strain that has a higher death rate. Perhaps one that kills younger people as well as older people. Things could always be worse. Sorry for being a Debbie downer.
    - jMyles 6y ago
      Wait 'til you hear about antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
    - ssully 6y ago
      If I have learned anything over the last few years it's that things could always be worse, and that denialism will exist in any scenario or condition.