5 ms·

No one in any tweet said "it's just the cold" so you were misreading or misrepresenting — which is it? From my "No lockdown in 2017-2018 cold season!" tweet yo

No one in any tweet said "it's just the cold" so you were misreading or misrepresenting — which is it? From my "No lockdown in 2017-2018 cold season!" tweet you linked, straight up the thread two tweets, everyone can see the quoted tweet: https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1330594561635315724 https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1330594561635315724 where Mark Changizi wrote: "Overwhelmed hospitals everywhere! ...in 2017/18 cold season. US: https://nytimes.com/2018/02/02/health/flu-symptoms-virus-hospital.html https://nytimes.com/2018/02/02/health/flu-symptoms-virus-hos... UK: https://nytimes.com/2018/01/03/world/europe/uk-national-health-service.html https://nytimes.com/2018/01/03/world/europe/uk-national-heal... Italy: https://thelocal.it/20180119/italy-worst-flu-season-in-14-years https://thelocal.it/20180119/italy-worst-flu-season-in-14-ye... Japan: https://japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/22/national/science-health/japanese-hospitals-sick-requests-flu-recovery-certificates/ https://japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/22/national/science-he..." Obviously the point is that we had overwhelmed hospitals in 2017-2018 (almost every year, the Guardian runs an "NHS overwhelmed" story in the UK) but no lockdowns. This was not to make light of that (bad) flu season, or to say "it's just the cold". Rather, the link pointed out that we didn't lock down over elevated mortality in bad flu years. That is relevant because WHO and CDC long-term policy guidance was and is against lockdowns: CDC 2007: https://cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/community_mitigation-sm.pdf https://cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/community_mitigat... p. 25: “... the effectiveness of pandemic mitigation strategies will erode rapidly as the cumulative illness rate prior to implementation climbs above 1 percent of the population....” WHO 2006: http://upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2006/2006-09-15-diseasemitigationcontrolpandemicflu.html http://upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2... argues against lockdowns. If you can't follow this context without misreading as "just the cold", I say it's time to stop reading Twitter and HN right now. (BTW, Alex Petrescu in that thread ended with a gracious concession about overreacting by using troll-form rhetoric: https://twitter.com/SeyelentEco/status/1336043936238845953?s=20 https://twitter.com/SeyelentEco/status/1336043936238845953?s....)

invisible 6y ago
What does the word “suggesting” mean to you (in the sentence as I used it)? I’m guessing “some leading the reader to believe that it is the same as a cold” would have been more clear.
- BrendanEich 6y ago
  No, "suggesting" doesn't help, you are still misreading. The argument was about no lockdown in 2017-2018 in spite of bad cold season. It was an argument against lockdowns, not a claim that Covid-19 is just the cold. Perhaps you are assuming lockdowns are good policy and help. Or you think Covid mortality is much worse than the worst post-1918 flu pandemics. Neither is true.
  - invisible 6y ago
    The argument against lockdowns was based on it being comparable to a cold/flu season. The number hospitalized so for COVID-19 in the US exceeds the 2017-2018 season. Additionally, the mortality rate is an order of magnitude higher (61k in 2017-2018 flus vs ~500k+ for COVID-19 so far, US). Dealing with dying patients is harder on hospital staff. Treating a new illness was challenging for hospitals. That result is with the extraordinary measures that we, as a society, have taken. >Neither is true. I’ll admit, it’s tough to say what the lockdowns did to/for us. I’m not prepared to assert the truth as willingly as you are. I’m going to have to defer to the only study I could find on this: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8
    - BrendanEich 6y ago
      > The argument against lockdowns was based on it being comparable to a cold/flu season. No: CDC 2007: https://cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/community_mitigation-sm.pdf https://cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/community_mitigat... p. 25: “... the effectiveness of pandemic mitigation strategies will erode rapidly as the cumulative illness rate prior to implementation climbs above 1 percent of the population....” WHO 2006: http://upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2006/2006-09-15-diseasemitigationcontrolpandemicflu.html http://upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2... argues against lockdowns. The argument against lockdown as ineffective above 1% spread is based on models, see the references. Whether these are good models or not, that's what CDC policy guidance was. Western lockdowns with many essential workers spreading the virus, especially nosocomially, are even less justifiable. Wrecking the economy, including health care sector employment and facilities, while leaving people worse off on all other health fronts (deferred checkups and treatments), plus the psychological toll culminating in elevated suicides, is not worth hard-to-measure reduction in spread. Lockdowns actually focus spread into shared housing, notably nursing homes. They also select adversely in the face of mutated variants. Lockdown policy guidance was not based on cold vs. flu or severity of either. I have no idea why you thought this.

invisible 6y ago

What does the word “suggesting” mean to you (in the sentence as I used it)? I’m guessing “some leading the reader to believe that it is the same as a cold” would have been more clear.

BrendanEich 6y ago
No, "suggesting" doesn't help, you are still misreading. The argument was about no lockdown in 2017-2018 in spite of bad cold season. It was an argument against lockdowns, not a claim that Covid-19 is just the cold. Perhaps you are assuming lockdowns are good policy and help. Or you think Covid mortality is much worse than the worst post-1918 flu pandemics. Neither is true.
- invisible 6y ago
  The argument against lockdowns was based on it being comparable to a cold/flu season. The number hospitalized so for COVID-19 in the US exceeds the 2017-2018 season. Additionally, the mortality rate is an order of magnitude higher (61k in 2017-2018 flus vs ~500k+ for COVID-19 so far, US). Dealing with dying patients is harder on hospital staff. Treating a new illness was challenging for hospitals. That result is with the extraordinary measures that we, as a society, have taken. >Neither is true. I’ll admit, it’s tough to say what the lockdowns did to/for us. I’m not prepared to assert the truth as willingly as you are. I’m going to have to defer to the only study I could find on this: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8
  - BrendanEich 6y ago
    > The argument against lockdowns was based on it being comparable to a cold/flu season. No: CDC 2007: https://cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/community_mitigation-sm.pdf https://cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/community_mitigat... p. 25: “... the effectiveness of pandemic mitigation strategies will erode rapidly as the cumulative illness rate prior to implementation climbs above 1 percent of the population....” WHO 2006: http://upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2006/2006-09-15-diseasemitigationcontrolpandemicflu.html http://upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2... argues against lockdowns. The argument against lockdown as ineffective above 1% spread is based on models, see the references. Whether these are good models or not, that's what CDC policy guidance was. Western lockdowns with many essential workers spreading the virus, especially nosocomially, are even less justifiable. Wrecking the economy, including health care sector employment and facilities, while leaving people worse off on all other health fronts (deferred checkups and treatments), plus the psychological toll culminating in elevated suicides, is not worth hard-to-measure reduction in spread. Lockdowns actually focus spread into shared housing, notably nursing homes. They also select adversely in the face of mutated variants. Lockdown policy guidance was not based on cold vs. flu or severity of either. I have no idea why you thought this.