4 ms·

It's curious that the current tide of public opinion reckons that we're all going to be in EVs in 10-15 years, when the grid nearly collapses under the weight o

by eckza 6y ago

It's curious that the current tide of public opinion reckons that we're all going to be in EVs in 10-15 years, when the grid nearly collapses under the weight of everybody plugging in a heater and turning on Netflix at the same time.

brundolf 6y ago
It's not that the capacity can't be mustered, it's that it can't be mustered overnight.
chrismcb 6y ago
Not exactly public opinion when places like California are manadating it
toomuchtodo 6y ago
What is the cost to build power grids to support days of weather a geography doesn’t experience for decades at a time (it has been 30 years since Texas was this cold)? Would people pay more versus suffer through some power outages?
rtpg 6y ago
"Netflix" is not even 10% of a heater. Heating is so much more energy-costly than basically anything you do in your home. Granted, seems like if you're driving ~40-60 miles a day, then you're looking at needing 4kW during the evenings. Not insignificant, but it's like... electric heating for one big room, basically.
unethical_ban 6y ago
What's your point? That EV conversion shouldn't be a goal? That because of a freak, instant spike in demand in 2020 means grids and production can't be more robust in 2035? A TV pulls what, 50-100 watts? A space heater pulls 1500W on high. Now think about many people who, for better or worse, are running multiple space heaters in their house. Now imagine millions of households doing that, on two days' notice.
- fogihujy 6y ago
  Not the grandparent, but this is an actual concern. As you say, there is nothing preventing us from aiming for large-scale EV conversion while simultaneously improving the grid. The problem is that many seem to believe the second part will happen automatically, whereas in reality, it'll require large investments in renewing and improving current infrastructure. As a comparison, I live in the Finnish countryside. Cold like the one experienced in Texas is pretty normal here, but the grid situation is similar to what the grandparent suggests; a large-scale EV rollout would simply not be possible during wintertime as the grid's already maxed out due to electric heating. And this is when most people burn wood or wood pellets in order to keep their electricity bills low. This will be easier to remedy in urban areas, but unless we start upgrading the infrastructure soon, there's simply no way we'll be using EV's to the extent we want to in 15 years.
  - Schiendelman 6y ago
    If people start using more electricity, politicians will have to choose between improvements or dealing with mobs with pitchforks. Worst case scenario there are some brown outs as they get their shit together. But it’s relatively easy to solve this with pricing or by subsidizing local solar or a lot of other things. And people will absolutely not tolerate their power going out, so those things will happen.
natch 6y ago
Savvy grid operators are deploying large battery installations to meet demand spikes, mitigating some of the issues around that. Also the amount of solar and wind energy installations is only going to increase going forward, so no worries. Still, plenty to do.
- baq 6y ago
  in this case texas is net short gigawatts. the largest grid scale battery ever built wouldn't last an hour. you'd have to have 20 to get through the night.
  - pfdietz 6y ago
    What batteries could do here is allow the grid to operate closer to maximum, without having to hold as much generating capacity in reserve in case some generator goes offline. The batteries could keep the grid going until some load could be shed.
  - natch 6y ago
    How many gigawatts we talking? The largest grid scale battery ever built will deliver 1.2GW per hour. I'd say 20 of those would certainly do the trick, and then some. Might be able to get by with 10 or so. They would save rate payers a bucket of money as well; the largest grid scale battery ever built that you mention is projected to offer cost savings of $100 million over its 20 year lifespan versus the alternatives; not bad at all. As far as the up front cost, it's pocket change for a state like Texas, and they could use it in the summer as well.
    - baq 6y ago
      my back of the napkin chart-to-eyeball calculations point to a 10-20 GW deficit. i absolutely agree that not buying these batteries is just plain stupid, therefore the chance of them not getting bought is significant.
notatoad 6y ago
imagine if the grid did have the capacity to charge everybody's EV every night, and the only consequence of a sudden intense surge in demand for electricity like this was that you couldn't charge your car, rather than your house losing power completely when the power company has to institute rolling blackouts... A higher overall demand makes the grid healthier, not weaker.
scoopertrooper 6y ago
Perhaps, in 10-15 years electricity output may increase along with demand?

by eckza 6y ago

brundolf 6y ago

It's not that the capacity can't be mustered, it's that it can't be mustered overnight.

chrismcb 6y ago

Not exactly public opinion when places like California are manadating it

toomuchtodo 6y ago

What is the cost to build power grids to support days of weather a geography doesn’t experience for decades at a time (it has been 30 years since Texas was this cold)? Would people pay more versus suffer through some power outages?

rtpg 6y ago

"Netflix" is not even 10% of a heater. Heating is so much more energy-costly than basically anything you do in your home. Granted, seems like if you're driving ~40-60 miles a day, then you're looking at needing 4kW during the evenings. Not insignificant, but it's like... electric heating for one big room, basically.

unethical_ban 6y ago

What's your point? That EV conversion shouldn't be a goal? That because of a freak, instant spike in demand in 2020 means grids and production can't be more robust in 2035? A TV pulls what, 50-100 watts? A space heater pulls 1500W on high. Now think about many people who, for better or worse, are running multiple space heaters in their house. Now imagine millions of households doing that, on two days' notice.

fogihujy 6y ago
Not the grandparent, but this is an actual concern. As you say, there is nothing preventing us from aiming for large-scale EV conversion while simultaneously improving the grid. The problem is that many seem to believe the second part will happen automatically, whereas in reality, it'll require large investments in renewing and improving current infrastructure. As a comparison, I live in the Finnish countryside. Cold like the one experienced in Texas is pretty normal here, but the grid situation is similar to what the grandparent suggests; a large-scale EV rollout would simply not be possible during wintertime as the grid's already maxed out due to electric heating. And this is when most people burn wood or wood pellets in order to keep their electricity bills low. This will be easier to remedy in urban areas, but unless we start upgrading the infrastructure soon, there's simply no way we'll be using EV's to the extent we want to in 15 years.
- Schiendelman 6y ago
  If people start using more electricity, politicians will have to choose between improvements or dealing with mobs with pitchforks. Worst case scenario there are some brown outs as they get their shit together. But it’s relatively easy to solve this with pricing or by subsidizing local solar or a lot of other things. And people will absolutely not tolerate their power going out, so those things will happen.

natch 6y ago

Savvy grid operators are deploying large battery installations to meet demand spikes, mitigating some of the issues around that. Also the amount of solar and wind energy installations is only going to increase going forward, so no worries. Still, plenty to do.

baq 6y ago
in this case texas is net short gigawatts. the largest grid scale battery ever built wouldn't last an hour. you'd have to have 20 to get through the night.
- pfdietz 6y ago
  What batteries could do here is allow the grid to operate closer to maximum, without having to hold as much generating capacity in reserve in case some generator goes offline. The batteries could keep the grid going until some load could be shed.
- natch 6y ago
  How many gigawatts we talking? The largest grid scale battery ever built will deliver 1.2GW per hour. I'd say 20 of those would certainly do the trick, and then some. Might be able to get by with 10 or so. They would save rate payers a bucket of money as well; the largest grid scale battery ever built that you mention is projected to offer cost savings of $100 million over its 20 year lifespan versus the alternatives; not bad at all. As far as the up front cost, it's pocket change for a state like Texas, and they could use it in the summer as well.
  - baq 6y ago
    my back of the napkin chart-to-eyeball calculations point to a 10-20 GW deficit. i absolutely agree that not buying these batteries is just plain stupid, therefore the chance of them not getting bought is significant.

notatoad 6y ago

imagine if the grid did have the capacity to charge everybody's EV every night, and the only consequence of a sudden intense surge in demand for electricity like this was that you couldn't charge your car, rather than your house losing power completely when the power company has to institute rolling blackouts... A higher overall demand makes the grid healthier, not weaker.

scoopertrooper 6y ago

Perhaps, in 10-15 years electricity output may increase along with demand?