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ERCOT is the only energy market not to have a capacity market. Combine this with a large dependency on wind(unreliable) and you see problems. This is not the f

by jweir 6y ago

ERCOT is the only energy market not to have a capacity market. Combine this with a large dependency on wind(unreliable) and you see problems. This is not the first time has happened. Summer of 2019 saw a heat wave with no wind that lasted a week. Energy prices were way up. https://cpowerenergymanagement.com/why-doesnt-texas-have-a-capacity-market/ https://cpowerenergymanagement.com/why-doesnt-texas-have-a-c... Ps - I just checked the prices for northern Hub - day ahead was over $6,500 and real time around $4,500 per MW for 8pm. Last Sunday both prices were around $25.

hourislate 6y ago
From what I understand, it's not that there is no wind. 50% of the Turbines have been shut down do to icing. The also have some NatGas suppliers that suffered freezing damage. So it's a combination of things that are adding up. I'm in North Texas and I can't remember temps this low in the last 30 years. It's about 13 degrees (- 10 C) at the moment and it looks like it is going to get a lot colder in the coming days.
- jweir 6y ago
  Correct. The summer of 2019 was no wind. Today’s problem is ice.
  - grendelt 6y ago
    I'm guessing ice is such a rare problem the turbines in Texas aren't equipped to handle it. Not that turbines can't de-ice themselves, right? Surely if they can operate in the North Sea, they can operate in West and South Texas, yeah?
    - jweir 6y ago
      I am not familiar with turbine technology. But I do know wind farms is ISO-NE (New England) have shutdown from ice. Just a quick bit of reading describes the challenges - historically the solutions have been expensive and not very good. One article said there is some promising new technology. Here is that article (or press release - I know nothing of the source) https://www.windpowerengineering.com/the-cold-hard-truth-about-ice-on-turbine-blades/ https://www.windpowerengineering.com/the-cold-hard-truth-abo...
    - galangalalgol 6y ago
      Perhaps there is an unhappy middle temperature where ice forms more easily? I know some people from the northern US that moved to Texas and were mocking how slowly they drove in the snow. Until they had a close call and realized the barely freezing weather makes for worse ice sheets.
      - txlpo78 6y ago
        Central Texas has been getting a lot of freezing rain this weekend, as opposed to outright snow or sleet. I know this has caused a lot of power line and tree damage (because it causes water to cling to trees and freeze into ice, whereas snow doesn’t accumulate as much on trees). I would imagine freezing rain would have similar effects on wind turbines.
        brundolf 6y ago
        Austin TX here, it's the most bizarre thing I've seen. All trees, all objects, have a thin (couple mms) shell of clear ice. Evenly distributed all the way around, and then icicles on the bottom. It all appeared that first day (Thursday?) when we first had freezing temperatures and there was moderate rain at the same time. All of the trees are sagging, several branches have fallen just within the view of my house.
        heurist 6y ago
        Walking around my yard this evening and the green vegetation that froze over crunched like potato chips. I'm from the Midwest so familiar with the cold, but I had never experienced that sensation before.
      - chipsa 6y ago
        Freezing rain usually occurs when you have an inversion aloft, resulting in above freezing temperatures over sub freezing temps, along with precipitation. The snow that falls melts, then chills down as it goes through the cold near surface layer. So when it hits an object, it freezes on contact. For this to occur, you need temps to be pretty close to freezing, as if it's too warm, or won't refreeze, and too cold, it never melts to rain.
    - Element_ 6y ago
      According to this article[1] you can equip them with cold weather packages that will allow them to operate down to -30C. I am guessing they wouldn't install those packages on turbines in Texas [1] https://energynews.us/2019/02/27/midwest/wind-turbine-shutdowns-during-polar-vortex-stoke-midwest-debate/ https://energynews.us/2019/02/27/midwest/wind-turbine-shutdo...
- tnorthcutt 6y ago
  The forecast looks to be warmer after Monday, no?
  - milofeynman 6y ago
    Tuesday 2am is the lowest we'll see around North Dallas. 2°F is current prediction
- foxhop 6y ago
  Look up grand solar minimum.
jabl 6y ago
> ERCOT is the only energy market not to have a capacity market. Plenty of energy-only markets around, at least internationally. ERCOT also has an ORDC. Surely they can tweak that if they want to have better insurance against black swan type events without going to a capacity market, with attendant problems.

by jweir 6y ago

hourislate 6y ago

From what I understand, it's not that there is no wind. 50% of the Turbines have been shut down do to icing. The also have some NatGas suppliers that suffered freezing damage. So it's a combination of things that are adding up. I'm in North Texas and I can't remember temps this low in the last 30 years. It's about 13 degrees (- 10 C) at the moment and it looks like it is going to get a lot colder in the coming days.

jweir 6y ago
Correct. The summer of 2019 was no wind. Today’s problem is ice.
- grendelt 6y ago
  I'm guessing ice is such a rare problem the turbines in Texas aren't equipped to handle it. Not that turbines can't de-ice themselves, right? Surely if they can operate in the North Sea, they can operate in West and South Texas, yeah?
  - jweir 6y ago
    I am not familiar with turbine technology. But I do know wind farms is ISO-NE (New England) have shutdown from ice. Just a quick bit of reading describes the challenges - historically the solutions have been expensive and not very good. One article said there is some promising new technology. Here is that article (or press release - I know nothing of the source) https://www.windpowerengineering.com/the-cold-hard-truth-about-ice-on-turbine-blades/ https://www.windpowerengineering.com/the-cold-hard-truth-abo...
  - galangalalgol 6y ago
    Perhaps there is an unhappy middle temperature where ice forms more easily? I know some people from the northern US that moved to Texas and were mocking how slowly they drove in the snow. Until they had a close call and realized the barely freezing weather makes for worse ice sheets.
    - txlpo78 6y ago
      Central Texas has been getting a lot of freezing rain this weekend, as opposed to outright snow or sleet. I know this has caused a lot of power line and tree damage (because it causes water to cling to trees and freeze into ice, whereas snow doesn’t accumulate as much on trees). I would imagine freezing rain would have similar effects on wind turbines.
      - brundolf 6y ago
        Austin TX here, it's the most bizarre thing I've seen. All trees, all objects, have a thin (couple mms) shell of clear ice. Evenly distributed all the way around, and then icicles on the bottom. It all appeared that first day (Thursday?) when we first had freezing temperatures and there was moderate rain at the same time. All of the trees are sagging, several branches have fallen just within the view of my house.
        heurist 6y ago
        Walking around my yard this evening and the green vegetation that froze over crunched like potato chips. I'm from the Midwest so familiar with the cold, but I had never experienced that sensation before.
    - chipsa 6y ago
      Freezing rain usually occurs when you have an inversion aloft, resulting in above freezing temperatures over sub freezing temps, along with precipitation. The snow that falls melts, then chills down as it goes through the cold near surface layer. So when it hits an object, it freezes on contact. For this to occur, you need temps to be pretty close to freezing, as if it's too warm, or won't refreeze, and too cold, it never melts to rain.
  - Element_ 6y ago
    According to this article[1] you can equip them with cold weather packages that will allow them to operate down to -30C. I am guessing they wouldn't install those packages on turbines in Texas [1] https://energynews.us/2019/02/27/midwest/wind-turbine-shutdowns-during-polar-vortex-stoke-midwest-debate/ https://energynews.us/2019/02/27/midwest/wind-turbine-shutdo...
tnorthcutt 6y ago
The forecast looks to be warmer after Monday, no?
- milofeynman 6y ago
  Tuesday 2am is the lowest we'll see around North Dallas. 2°F is current prediction
foxhop 6y ago
Look up grand solar minimum.

jabl 6y ago

> ERCOT is the only energy market not to have a capacity market. Plenty of energy-only markets around, at least internationally. ERCOT also has an ORDC. Surely they can tweak that if they want to have better insurance against black swan type events without going to a capacity market, with attendant problems.