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Or Amazon.com Amazon lost $3 billion over 8 years before they started turning a profit. [1] It's HARD to tell the difference between Iridium and Amazon. That'

by portman 15y ago

Or Amazon.com Amazon lost $3 billion over 8 years before they started turning a profit. [1] It's HARD to tell the difference between Iridium and Amazon. That's why some investors make money and some lose money. [1] http://www.slideshare.net/faberNovel/amazoncom-the-hidden-empire http://www.slideshare.net/faberNovel/amazoncom-the-hidden-em...

VladRussian 15y ago
>It's HARD to tell the difference between Iridium and Amazon yep. And it was hard to pick Amazon among the well funded overhyped dot-com crowd. Nothing indicates so far that Groupon is Amazon, not Webvan for example. >That's why some investors make money and some lose money. Ones who picked AMZN would like to think that they were smart, not just lucky. Ones who picked some dot-com loser instead of AMZN would like to think that they were unlucky, not "unsmart" :)
- freshfunk 15y ago
  I think that very early on, picking AMZN as a winner is luck. But the difference between them and their competitors (even in the early days) was constant innovation both in technology and business. For example, one-click purchasing, free shipping on orders over $25, users also viewed, reviews etc. Much of what they did is par for the course today but, at the time, it was innovative. Amazon didn't win because they were lucky. They won because they were smart. Investors who recognized this were betting intelligently, not just lucky. The other thing to notice is that that culture still exists today. They take big chances in areas seem tangential to their business (eg. AWS, Kindle) or use business innovation to drive sales (eg. Amazon Mom).
- Goladus 15y ago
  The only thing I notice is that people like and use groupon. Just this past Wednesday there was a status update in my news feed: "I ♥ Groupons!" from a recent college graduate who teaches English as a second language (ie not a hacker or startup nerd). That's one obvious difference between Iridium and Amazon. 10 years ago, when Amazon was still losing money, I had already made purchases from them. It was the first place I checked if I wanted to buy books online. I had never heard of Iridium. I don't think groupon will be as successful as Amazon, but having real fans among consumers is a big deal.
zyfo 15y ago
That's why the spectator sport hindsight-investing is so popular. It's funny how many people are so sure of the soundness/lack of soundness of a business model, yet surprisingly few put their money where their mouth is.
po 15y ago
It's HARD to tell the difference between Iridium and Amazon. I agree, which is why it is important to also look at the behavior of the founders who have intimate knowledge and secret desires. I won't begrudge anyone taking some money off the table but the amount they are funneling out seems completely out of line with the idea that they expect this business to keep growing.

by portman 15y ago

VladRussian 15y ago

>It's HARD to tell the difference between Iridium and Amazon yep. And it was hard to pick Amazon among the well funded overhyped dot-com crowd. Nothing indicates so far that Groupon is Amazon, not Webvan for example. >That's why some investors make money and some lose money. Ones who picked AMZN would like to think that they were smart, not just lucky. Ones who picked some dot-com loser instead of AMZN would like to think that they were unlucky, not "unsmart" :)

freshfunk 15y ago
I think that very early on, picking AMZN as a winner is luck. But the difference between them and their competitors (even in the early days) was constant innovation both in technology and business. For example, one-click purchasing, free shipping on orders over $25, users also viewed, reviews etc. Much of what they did is par for the course today but, at the time, it was innovative. Amazon didn't win because they were lucky. They won because they were smart. Investors who recognized this were betting intelligently, not just lucky. The other thing to notice is that that culture still exists today. They take big chances in areas seem tangential to their business (eg. AWS, Kindle) or use business innovation to drive sales (eg. Amazon Mom).
Goladus 15y ago
The only thing I notice is that people like and use groupon. Just this past Wednesday there was a status update in my news feed: "I ♥ Groupons!" from a recent college graduate who teaches English as a second language (ie not a hacker or startup nerd). That's one obvious difference between Iridium and Amazon. 10 years ago, when Amazon was still losing money, I had already made purchases from them. It was the first place I checked if I wanted to buy books online. I had never heard of Iridium. I don't think groupon will be as successful as Amazon, but having real fans among consumers is a big deal.

zyfo 15y ago

That's why the spectator sport hindsight-investing is so popular. It's funny how many people are so sure of the soundness/lack of soundness of a business model, yet surprisingly few put their money where their mouth is.

po 15y ago

It's HARD to tell the difference between Iridium and Amazon. I agree, which is why it is important to also look at the behavior of the founders who have intimate knowledge and secret desires. I won't begrudge anyone taking some money off the table but the amount they are funneling out seems completely out of line with the idea that they expect this business to keep growing.