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Not really. It's the same as any Ponzi scheme. A promise to early adopters that they'll get rich; initial returns seem to prove out the promise; a giant wave

Not really. It's the same as any Ponzi scheme. A promise to early adopters that they'll get rich; initial returns seem to prove out the promise; a giant wave of hype drives a steady stream of suckers into the deal; the existence of the hype is sufficient justification for further hyping stories, providing secondary waves of publicity; the creators quietly cash out their positions and retire to small Caribbean islands; eventually others start trying to cash out; this creates a reverse hype wave ("sell your bitcoins now before they are worthless!"); and wooosh, in a week bitcoins will indeed be worthless. If it were a real currency the creator might face jail time but in this case the creator may well get away with it. The creator can plausibly (notice I did not say truthfully) disclaim any knowledge of how the scheme would unfold. It is interesting from a technical perspective but from a societal/historical point of view, not at all. This same cycle has played out infinite times in human history and will play out infinite times in the future. People always manage to convince themselves that "this time it's different".

narrator 15y ago
The limited inflation and eventual deflation aspects make it more interesting then tradictional alternate currencies. The world is not going to get flooded with an unlimited supply of bitcoins just because there's more demand. How is gold not a ponzi scheme BTW? Ponzi schemes don't run for 3000 years.
swaits 15y ago
I don't think you exactly understand the definition of a Ponzi scheme. It might well be a bubble. But Ponzi? No.
- hugh3 15y ago
  Not quite ponzi. Somewhere between a Ponzi and a bubble -- economically it's a bubble, practically it's a Ponzi. Most bubbles start by accident -- this one was carefully engineered. How do you engineer a bubble? First you invent an asset. But if it's an asset that only you own then nobody will want to believe it's valuable. So you make it possible for the first round of early adopters to get it for free, by "mining. The first adopters talk the second adopters into trying it too (they can still get significant amounts by mining) and... well, you know the story. You also wrap it in some political anti-fiat-currency anti-bank anti-Fed anti-government anti-whatever pro-cryptography political wrapping to make it appealing to a certain constituency. But the key thing is to give out the "asset" for free at first, and to a lesser extent as time goes on, to incentivise early adopters without requiring 'em to actually put their hands in their own pockets. It's quite brilliant, the best memetically-engineered scam since Scientology. And now I'm really getting tired of discussing bitcoin. I think I'll write a big long blog post in the form of a FAQ, submit it, and never mention bitcoin ever again.
  - kiba 15y ago
    The amount of people who said Bitcoin is a bubble is so great and so constant that I commissioned a comic about Bitcoin Bubble just so I can gain traffic by linking to that comic when somebody made that sort of statement. http://bitcoinweekly.com/articles/comic-reaction-after-dramatic-rise-of-bitcoin-s-value http://bitcoinweekly.com/articles/comic-reaction-after-drama... The ROI is fantastic.
    - hugh3 15y ago
      Your comic seems to be missing a last panel -- y'know, the one with the punchline. Did you commission it from the writer of Marmaduke? Is it possible that the number of people saying that bitcoin is a bubble is so high because bitcoin is a bubble? I mean, I'm not sure how anyone could even deny that bitcoin is a bubble -- the best you can hope for is that like gold it's a bubble that never ends. There's only been one of those in human history, though (two if you count silver as well), and it has at least a seven thousand year head start on bitcoin. Anyway, my response to your comic is this: http://projectomniscience.blogspot.com/2011/05/aardvarks.html http://projectomniscience.blogspot.com/2011/05/aardvarks.htm...
      - kiba 15y ago
        Your comic seems to be missing a last panel -- y'know, the one with the punchline. Did you commission it from the writer of Marmaduke? I wrote the strip, or at least the concept. I commissioned it from an artist called Joey Dangerous and pay the guy in bitcoin.
        antiscam 15y ago
        I think you may have missed the point of the comment to which you were replying. What's the humor of the comic, in your view? I can't discern it myself. It does seem to need a punchline. Perhaps a zoom out to a larger group of people saying "Bitcoin Rally!" sitting on piles of Bitcoins that they're compulsively counting.
      - kiba 15y ago
epscylonb 15y ago
so you are predicting the price against the dollar will fall? it has risen and fallen many times already a huge crash is inevitable and unavoidable because the market is thinly traded and very psychological at the moment but when all is said and done, the bitcoin network will still be there, people will still have their bitcoins and will be able to transfer them across the globe is a short amount of time i don't have a crystal ball, i can't tell you if bitcoin will become a successful currency, but you should realise that what is going on at the moment is a sideshow and doesn't reflect bitcoins true potential a more constructive comment from you might have proposed a "fairer" system of minting than rewarding early adopters...
- mattmanser 15y ago
  risen and fallen? Look at bitcoin to dollar over the last few years. A very worrying graph for anyone still holding bitcoins.

narrator 15y ago

The limited inflation and eventual deflation aspects make it more interesting then tradictional alternate currencies. The world is not going to get flooded with an unlimited supply of bitcoins just because there's more demand. How is gold not a ponzi scheme BTW? Ponzi schemes don't run for 3000 years.

swaits 15y ago

I don't think you exactly understand the definition of a Ponzi scheme. It might well be a bubble. But Ponzi? No.

hugh3 15y ago
Not quite ponzi. Somewhere between a Ponzi and a bubble -- economically it's a bubble, practically it's a Ponzi. Most bubbles start by accident -- this one was carefully engineered. How do you engineer a bubble? First you invent an asset. But if it's an asset that only you own then nobody will want to believe it's valuable. So you make it possible for the first round of early adopters to get it for free, by "mining. The first adopters talk the second adopters into trying it too (they can still get significant amounts by mining) and... well, you know the story. You also wrap it in some political anti-fiat-currency anti-bank anti-Fed anti-government anti-whatever pro-cryptography political wrapping to make it appealing to a certain constituency. But the key thing is to give out the "asset" for free at first, and to a lesser extent as time goes on, to incentivise early adopters without requiring 'em to actually put their hands in their own pockets. It's quite brilliant, the best memetically-engineered scam since Scientology. And now I'm really getting tired of discussing bitcoin. I think I'll write a big long blog post in the form of a FAQ, submit it, and never mention bitcoin ever again.
- kiba 15y ago
  The amount of people who said Bitcoin is a bubble is so great and so constant that I commissioned a comic about Bitcoin Bubble just so I can gain traffic by linking to that comic when somebody made that sort of statement. http://bitcoinweekly.com/articles/comic-reaction-after-dramatic-rise-of-bitcoin-s-value http://bitcoinweekly.com/articles/comic-reaction-after-drama... The ROI is fantastic.
  - hugh3 15y ago
    Your comic seems to be missing a last panel -- y'know, the one with the punchline. Did you commission it from the writer of Marmaduke? Is it possible that the number of people saying that bitcoin is a bubble is so high because bitcoin is a bubble? I mean, I'm not sure how anyone could even deny that bitcoin is a bubble -- the best you can hope for is that like gold it's a bubble that never ends. There's only been one of those in human history, though (two if you count silver as well), and it has at least a seven thousand year head start on bitcoin. Anyway, my response to your comic is this: http://projectomniscience.blogspot.com/2011/05/aardvarks.html http://projectomniscience.blogspot.com/2011/05/aardvarks.htm...
    - kiba 15y ago
      Your comic seems to be missing a last panel -- y'know, the one with the punchline. Did you commission it from the writer of Marmaduke? I wrote the strip, or at least the concept. I commissioned it from an artist called Joey Dangerous and pay the guy in bitcoin.
      - antiscam 15y ago
        I think you may have missed the point of the comment to which you were replying. What's the humor of the comic, in your view? I can't discern it myself. It does seem to need a punchline. Perhaps a zoom out to a larger group of people saying "Bitcoin Rally!" sitting on piles of Bitcoins that they're compulsively counting.
    - kiba 15y ago

epscylonb 15y ago

so you are predicting the price against the dollar will fall? it has risen and fallen many times already a huge crash is inevitable and unavoidable because the market is thinly traded and very psychological at the moment but when all is said and done, the bitcoin network will still be there, people will still have their bitcoins and will be able to transfer them across the globe is a short amount of time i don't have a crystal ball, i can't tell you if bitcoin will become a successful currency, but you should realise that what is going on at the moment is a sideshow and doesn't reflect bitcoins true potential a more constructive comment from you might have proposed a "fairer" system of minting than rewarding early adopters...

mattmanser 15y ago
risen and fallen? Look at bitcoin to dollar over the last few years. A very worrying graph for anyone still holding bitcoins.