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He has been consistently wrong for 15 years, if he was right, it was a half truth by accident. Let’s look harder at his theses since 2007 or so: 1. US Equity
by parasubvert 6y ago
He has been consistently wrong for 15 years, if he was right, it was a half truth by accident. Let’s look harder at his theses since 2007 or so:
1. US Equity Markets Crash.
Okay, that happened in 2008. But, did it he get the reason why?
He claims it is all about Debt and easy money. That interest rates should be up and ultimately we should be tethered to hard currency. That’s a really, really simplistic and ahistorical take. It’s like saying, let’s cause issues with the financial economy to completely wipe out the real economy because it is “healthier that way”. Seems to be a big price to pay for a very nebulous benefit. Thoughts like that led to World War 1. (I highly suggest “Lords of Finance” from Liaquat Ahmad and “The Great Transformation” by Polanyi).
As opposed to what we ARE doing loosening the liquidity strings to allow the real economy to continue to function, albeit damaged by the lack of regulations + greed in the financial economy causing it to make terrible risk exposure decisions.
Yes there was plenty of bad behaviour in the housing market and in the whole Lon trading and mortgage trading market (which I was a part of in the past, as a wall st software dev). The interaction of mortgage backed securities and collatorized debt obligations propped up too many balance sheets and weren’t properly valued for systemic risk, and amassing credit default swaps as a hedge quickly unravelled the institutional insurers like AIG .... requiring a massive liquidity injection by the Fed and Congress so that everyone from Wall St to Main St didn’t wind up completely broke. Ultimately it was the only practical solution available given the political will.
2. US Dollar will crash (Hyperinflation)
Completely false and made him and his investors lose their shirts
3. Decoupling of foreign economies from the US slowdown
Also false, the US rebounded far quicker due to a variety of Obama era policies, the world still is not really decoupled as Eurozone troubles and Trump’s trade wars showed.
4. Foreign equities and commodities (gold) will grow and are where you should invest.
Except foreign equities crashed worse than US equities back in 2008! And austerity policies prolonged their suffering.
My criticism isn’t “overboard”, this is public record. If you are an investor and listened to Peter Schiff, you’ve lost a lot of money.
- unishark 6y agoYou mean because his reasoning is Austrian and not Keynesian it is wrong even when the crash happens which he predicted would happen? That's convenient. Gold has also done pretty well hasn't it? You can list wrong predictions all day, but if the guy is occasionally right you need to give credit.
- deathlight 6y agoThere's still no reason for anyone to carry around a broken watch and no reason to listen to wolf criers who are more wrong than not. Pete Schiff as an anachronistic goldbug is a curious oddity to point out every now and then for amusement. He isn't someone worth listening to though.
- parasubvert 6y agoThere’s an old saying that Austrians claim a lot of things, but ultimately become Keynesians in a foxhole. There is no “there” in Austrian economic reasoning or modeling: the fundamental premise is to reject empirical evidence in favour of Praxeology. This is useless for forming economic policy.