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One fair non-structural criticism, a weak, temporary criticism and two things billed as criticisms that aren't. Actually, all of Adam's criticisms deal with th
by achompas 15y ago
One fair non-structural criticism, a weak, temporary criticism and two things billed as criticisms that aren't.
Actually, all of Adam's criticisms deal with the supply and demand of currencies, and they are pretty strong and damning as a result. In sum, the supply of Bitcoins is finite (despite a growing population) and the demand for Bitcoins depends on (a) confidence in Bitcoins as a currency and (b) consumers' ability to convert between Bitcoins and fiat money with little friction.
(1) Adam's point is not the unfairness of early adoption, but that early adopters control all the rents. Today's miners will control currency as it appreciates, but after a point (say, the supply of mine-able Bitcoins is exhausted) there is zero reason to demand Bitcoins unless they supplant paper money (very, very unlikely).
(2) I'm weak on my deflation theory, but I don't think the computer-purchasing analogy is 100% right. Instead of buying the computer with paper money, consider buying the computer with gold bullions during the commodity boom. Why buy that Macbook Pro with x bullions today if you can buy it with x-y bullions tomorrow? Adam isn't arguing that "deflation is bad," but rather that the supply of Bitcoins as currency will dry up as their value appreciates.
(4) You can't hand-wave this away. Consumers have confidence in US dollars because the Federal Reserve and U.S. government can step in during a crisis and back people's assets. There is no similar guarantee for Bitcoins once something goes wrong.
(3) Why is convertibility not a systemic problem? Lack of convertibility falls out of all the previous points! Why accept bitcoins for cash if (a) they're not backed by a central authority, (b) almost no one else accepts them as money, or (c) they will be obscenely expensive once the supply dries up?
I can't believe Bitcoins have gotten this far. They're a currency accepted by almost no one as payment, guaranteed by no governing body, and artificially supplied as precious commodities without the benefits of said commodities (Bitcoin engagement ring? 24K Bitcoin watch?). They're a great theoretical exercise, but their real-world value will trend to $0 in the long run.
EDIT: barrkel gets to the point when he/she says "the value of money is a product of supply and demand, no matter whether fiat or specie." The fundamentals of Bitcoins are such that (a) supply will artificially dry up and (b) unlike precious metals/commodities, there will be little demand for Bitcoins aside from use as a currency (or a Ponzi scheme).
- svv 15y agoInstead of buying the computer with paper money, consider buying the computer with gold bullions during the commodity boom. Why buy that Macbook Pro with x bullions today if you can buy it with x-y bullions tomorrow? People have different time preferences. Some value Macbook today high enough to pay y more bullions than they would if they waited till tomorrow. There're many currencies that depreciate faster than the dollar, but it does not stop people stuck with those currencies from buying Macbooks -- even though they could theoretically change their money to dollars (or invest in gold) and wait. Adam isn't arguing that "deflation is bad," but rather that the supply of Bitcoins as currency will dry up as their value appreciates. There actually is a possible problem with Bitcoins "drying up" connected with its deflationary nature, but it is not the one mentioned by Adam. AFAIK there's a limitation on the minimal amount of Bitcoin transaction. That means that as Bitcoins appreciate in value at some point it may be impossible to set and pay small enough prices -- and such transactions will require alternative payment methods. This is a pretty much technical problem with the current Bitcoin implementation. It might be perfectly possible to design a deflationary crypto money system without this flaw.
- Dove 15y agoThey're a currency accepted by almost no one as payment Just a point of interest -- the list of sites that accept Bitcoin (http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade) is actually pretty long. I read it as a pretty good coverage of everyday commodities, actually. You can't pay for food, rent, or doctor bills with it, but you can buy a lot of other stuff. I guess you could characterize that as almost no one, but you'd have to mean an insignificant fraction of the larger economy. If you mean useless for buying actual stuff with--and you seem to--you're demonstrably wrong.
- achompas 15y agoNo, I definitely meant "an insignificant fraction." Thanks for the link.