5 ms·

How do you know what the correct rates of incarceration in the US should be? I've struggled with this question and I'm curious as to how others have arrived on

How do you know what the correct rates of incarceration in the US should be? I've struggled with this question and I'm curious as to how others have arrived on a number. Saying "less" or "more" seems like a way to justify policies with no accountability (i.e, asking to be abused), so I do not use those answers.

solosoyokaze 6y ago
Of course it should be less. Why would it ever be more? We can start by ending the war on drugs, which has imprisoned millions.
- rajin444 6y ago
  Sorry! I was trying to be neutral in my wording - personally I want it to be less. And I like you response - stopping specific instances of discrimination are how I believe we should approach this problem. However, in your other post you pointed to a single statistic that hides an enormous amount of complexity. I assume since you presented that statistic as evidence of a problem, you know what the correct statistic should be. How are you able to tell there's a problem if you don't know what the correct answer is? (this is the part I'm currently struggling with myself)
  - solosoyokaze 6y ago
    I don't know that there's a "correct" number, but it's highly inflated to all other countries and even US historical standards. That it's applied extremely unevenly by race is even more of a problem, especially given the history of policing in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rate#/media/File:US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_ra...
    - rajin444 6y ago
      Focusing on instances of discrimination makes perfect sense - there's a lot of those throughout history. I can't say incarceration rates are applied unevenly because I don't know what the correct answer is, but I see people saying "x% discrepancy in outcome is evidence of discrimination", but I don't know what the correct %'s are, so I don't know how they arrived at that conclusion. How do you know that US rates are highly inflated compared to other countries? And, what is the correct breakdown of incarceration rates by race?
      - solosoyokaze 6y ago
        > How do you know that US rates are highly inflated compared to other countries? You can see for yourself both in terms of rate per population and total(!) prison population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarcera... > And, what is the correct breakdown of incarceration rates by race? Even, otherwise it suggests something is wrong with society that needs to be fixed.
        rajin444 6y ago
        > You can see for yourself both in terms of rate per population and total(!) prison population: Right, but the US has many differences that could factor in to those numbers being different. How do you determine the signals from the noise? > Even, otherwise it suggests something is wrong with society that needs to be fixed. I agree with the idea that large discrepancies require investigation, but I don't see how you could expect extremely large, different groups (defining those groups being a massive challenge alone) of people to have the exact same outcomes. That seems statistically nearly impossible.
        solosoyokaze 6y ago
        > I agree with the idea that large discrepancies require investigation, but I don't see how you could expect extremely large, different groups (defining those groups being a massive challenge alone) of people to have the exact same outcomes. Putting 2M people in prison is not an acceptable outcome to me. Hence my argument to proactively try to support groups that are currently most at risk.

solosoyokaze 6y ago

Of course it should be less. Why would it ever be more? We can start by ending the war on drugs, which has imprisoned millions.

rajin444 6y ago
Sorry! I was trying to be neutral in my wording - personally I want it to be less. And I like you response - stopping specific instances of discrimination are how I believe we should approach this problem. However, in your other post you pointed to a single statistic that hides an enormous amount of complexity. I assume since you presented that statistic as evidence of a problem, you know what the correct statistic should be. How are you able to tell there's a problem if you don't know what the correct answer is? (this is the part I'm currently struggling with myself)
- solosoyokaze 6y ago
  I don't know that there's a "correct" number, but it's highly inflated to all other countries and even US historical standards. That it's applied extremely unevenly by race is even more of a problem, especially given the history of policing in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rate#/media/File:US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_ra...
  - rajin444 6y ago
    Focusing on instances of discrimination makes perfect sense - there's a lot of those throughout history. I can't say incarceration rates are applied unevenly because I don't know what the correct answer is, but I see people saying "x% discrepancy in outcome is evidence of discrimination", but I don't know what the correct %'s are, so I don't know how they arrived at that conclusion. How do you know that US rates are highly inflated compared to other countries? And, what is the correct breakdown of incarceration rates by race?
    - solosoyokaze 6y ago
      > How do you know that US rates are highly inflated compared to other countries? You can see for yourself both in terms of rate per population and total(!) prison population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarcera... > And, what is the correct breakdown of incarceration rates by race? Even, otherwise it suggests something is wrong with society that needs to be fixed.
      - rajin444 6y ago
        > You can see for yourself both in terms of rate per population and total(!) prison population: Right, but the US has many differences that could factor in to those numbers being different. How do you determine the signals from the noise? > Even, otherwise it suggests something is wrong with society that needs to be fixed. I agree with the idea that large discrepancies require investigation, but I don't see how you could expect extremely large, different groups (defining those groups being a massive challenge alone) of people to have the exact same outcomes. That seems statistically nearly impossible.
        solosoyokaze 6y ago
        > I agree with the idea that large discrepancies require investigation, but I don't see how you could expect extremely large, different groups (defining those groups being a massive challenge alone) of people to have the exact same outcomes. Putting 2M people in prison is not an acceptable outcome to me. Hence my argument to proactively try to support groups that are currently most at risk.