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Great comment! Def made me think alot. Seems you can replace your entire argument with crypto. Money printer goes brrr, money gets locked in crypto, does nothi

Great comment! Def made me think alot. Seems you can replace your entire argument with crypto. Money printer goes brrr, money gets locked in crypto, does nothing for the economy, leading to massive inequality. Crypto can be though of as "Savings" in your analogy. BTC might cause a economic meltdown if $10T gets locked in'Savings'.

BenoitEssiambre 6y ago
I've been wondering about that. I'm not sure if crypto coins without being stabilized by central banks are a powerful enough force to cause the type of havoc that gold did during the great depression. Then again, the potentially stronger network/memetic effects of cryptocoins, along with the amplification factor from markets being synchronized through instant all-encompassing global communications nowadays might make them dangerous to the economy without government involvement. We saw how much people can get hypnotized by these things during the Gamestop episode. I don't think unsophisticated investors' hoarding is enough to cause big problems but it is a bit unsettling that Tesla jumped on the cryptocoin train. If enough businesses follow suit, you get into scary territory. Last time it lead to Hitler and WWII. It makes me second guess my cybertruck reservation. I was on board partly because of Musk's audacious and epic attempts to bring humanity forward. This is a non negligible risk of going in the opposite direction of creating economic carnage that leads to new Hitlers (but with nukes).
- RhodoGSA 6y ago
  I was kinda following you and then the hitler thing came out of nowhere. Why exactly will bitcoin lead to the next hitler? Asking for a friend.
  - BenoitEssiambre 6y ago
    I understand that I kinda Godwin'd myself but if you read the wikipedia page on the Weimar Republic: "The Great Depression, exacerbated by Brüning's policy of deflation, led to a surge in unemployment.[8] On 30 January 1933, Hindenburg appointed Adolf Hitler as Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. " or "In 1933, the American economist Irving Fisher developed the theory of debt deflation. He explained that a deflation causes a decline of profits, asset prices and a still greater decline in the net worth of businesses. Even healthy companies, therefore, may appear over-indebted and facing bankruptcy.[59] The consensus today is that Brüning's policies exacerbated the German economic crisis and the population's growing frustration with democracy, contributing enormously to the increase in support for Hitler's NSDAP." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Br%C3%BCning's_policy_of_deflation_(1930%E2%80%931932) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Br%C3%BCning's... Now the above paragraph puts emphasis on businesses with debt but even non-indebted businesses can get caught in these currents if they are put in a position where it's more advantageous to hoard currency than to invest in maintaining or growing production. It's a fairly low probability that cryptocoins could create this kind of disastrous Nash equilibrium without the involvement of a powerful central bank. However, when I see the fervor in parts of the cryptocurrency movement and the fact that businesses are starting to hoard large amounts, I wonder...
Rury 6y ago
Even without a money printer and everyone mass adopted bitcoin, massive inequality would still ensue. This is because Bitcoin is inherently deflationary. Both inflation and deflation are natural drivers of inequality... they just work in different directions.
- thedudeabides5 6y ago
  Bitcoin is inherently deflationary...if the entire world moves to bitcoin, and somehow we prevented the extension of credit based on bitcoin collateral by financial intermediaries... Which is already happening. Financial institutions are already extending credit (aka 'printing money') based on bitcoin and other cryptocoin collateral. Bitcoin is not necessarily deflationary.
  - Rury 6y ago
    I'm sorry but you seemingly contradict yourself: >we prevented the extension of credit based on bitcoin collateral... >Which is already happening. Is in direct contradiction to: >Financial institutions are already extending credit... Regardless, the amount of bitcoin is set to be capped and finite - therefore unless this changes it is inherently deflationary. Aside from mining out the remaining unmined bitcoin, no institution is "extending credit" (aka 'printing') bitcoin, they're extending credit via (as you mentioned): other collateral.
    - thedudeabides5 6y ago
      That's my point. You can't make more bitcoin, but if you extend credit to someone based on the bitcoin they have, that's CREATING NEW MONEY. In that sense, bitcoin is like gold. In the gold standard, the supply of gold was fixes, but the supply of dollars was not. Because bank's create money when they allow you to borrow. For bitcoin to be truly deflationary, you would have to prevent all financial institutions from extending credit
  - RhodoGSA 6y ago
    this is a common misconception. Bitcoin is EVENTUALLY deflationary. Right now, about 900 coins are created every day leading to inflation of ~$45M a day that buying pressure needs to eat up. Every four years that inflation is cut in half, but it's still inflationary.

BenoitEssiambre 6y ago

I've been wondering about that. I'm not sure if crypto coins without being stabilized by central banks are a powerful enough force to cause the type of havoc that gold did during the great depression. Then again, the potentially stronger network/memetic effects of cryptocoins, along with the amplification factor from markets being synchronized through instant all-encompassing global communications nowadays might make them dangerous to the economy without government involvement. We saw how much people can get hypnotized by these things during the Gamestop episode. I don't think unsophisticated investors' hoarding is enough to cause big problems but it is a bit unsettling that Tesla jumped on the cryptocoin train. If enough businesses follow suit, you get into scary territory. Last time it lead to Hitler and WWII. It makes me second guess my cybertruck reservation. I was on board partly because of Musk's audacious and epic attempts to bring humanity forward. This is a non negligible risk of going in the opposite direction of creating economic carnage that leads to new Hitlers (but with nukes).

RhodoGSA 6y ago
I was kinda following you and then the hitler thing came out of nowhere. Why exactly will bitcoin lead to the next hitler? Asking for a friend.
- BenoitEssiambre 6y ago
  I understand that I kinda Godwin'd myself but if you read the wikipedia page on the Weimar Republic: "The Great Depression, exacerbated by Brüning's policy of deflation, led to a surge in unemployment.[8] On 30 January 1933, Hindenburg appointed Adolf Hitler as Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. " or "In 1933, the American economist Irving Fisher developed the theory of debt deflation. He explained that a deflation causes a decline of profits, asset prices and a still greater decline in the net worth of businesses. Even healthy companies, therefore, may appear over-indebted and facing bankruptcy.[59] The consensus today is that Brüning's policies exacerbated the German economic crisis and the population's growing frustration with democracy, contributing enormously to the increase in support for Hitler's NSDAP." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Br%C3%BCning's_policy_of_deflation_(1930%E2%80%931932) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Br%C3%BCning's... Now the above paragraph puts emphasis on businesses with debt but even non-indebted businesses can get caught in these currents if they are put in a position where it's more advantageous to hoard currency than to invest in maintaining or growing production. It's a fairly low probability that cryptocoins could create this kind of disastrous Nash equilibrium without the involvement of a powerful central bank. However, when I see the fervor in parts of the cryptocurrency movement and the fact that businesses are starting to hoard large amounts, I wonder...

Rury 6y ago

Even without a money printer and everyone mass adopted bitcoin, massive inequality would still ensue. This is because Bitcoin is inherently deflationary. Both inflation and deflation are natural drivers of inequality... they just work in different directions.

thedudeabides5 6y ago
Bitcoin is inherently deflationary...if the entire world moves to bitcoin, and somehow we prevented the extension of credit based on bitcoin collateral by financial intermediaries... Which is already happening. Financial institutions are already extending credit (aka 'printing money') based on bitcoin and other cryptocoin collateral. Bitcoin is not necessarily deflationary.
- Rury 6y ago
  I'm sorry but you seemingly contradict yourself: >we prevented the extension of credit based on bitcoin collateral... >Which is already happening. Is in direct contradiction to: >Financial institutions are already extending credit... Regardless, the amount of bitcoin is set to be capped and finite - therefore unless this changes it is inherently deflationary. Aside from mining out the remaining unmined bitcoin, no institution is "extending credit" (aka 'printing') bitcoin, they're extending credit via (as you mentioned): other collateral.
  - thedudeabides5 6y ago
    That's my point. You can't make more bitcoin, but if you extend credit to someone based on the bitcoin they have, that's CREATING NEW MONEY. In that sense, bitcoin is like gold. In the gold standard, the supply of gold was fixes, but the supply of dollars was not. Because bank's create money when they allow you to borrow. For bitcoin to be truly deflationary, you would have to prevent all financial institutions from extending credit
- RhodoGSA 6y ago
  this is a common misconception. Bitcoin is EVENTUALLY deflationary. Right now, about 900 coins are created every day leading to inflation of ~$45M a day that buying pressure needs to eat up. Every four years that inflation is cut in half, but it's still inflationary.