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Let me preface this by saying that I'm European and that I'd like the EU to be successful (and consequently, for Brexit to have been a mistake). That said, a l

Let me preface this by saying that I'm European and that I'd like the EU to be successful (and consequently, for Brexit to have been a mistake). That said, a lot of the reporting on how Brexit is so obviously a bad economic decision reminds me of what was written in the aftermath of the Swiss referendum not to join the EEC in 1992 (see e.g. this New York Times article from the day after the vote [0]). Similarly to Brexit, voters decided very narrowly (50.3%) against close integration with the EU, seemingly renouncing economic opportunities because of immigration fears and a desire for sovereignty. Now, almost 30 years after that referendum, the data does not support the thesis that the Swiss choice harmed economic development -- quite the contrary. Switzerland has seen a higher absolute and relative GDP per capita growth than any of its neighboring (non-microstate) countries [1]. I do think that the Swiss government was more skillful in negotiating their future relationship with the EU than what we have seen from the British government so far. Still, my takeaway is not to blindly believe the economic "experts" who predict the long-term economic impact of such a decision. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/1992/12/07/world/swiss-reject-tie-to-wider-europe.html https://www.nytimes.com/1992/12/07/world/swiss-reject-tie-to... [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2019&locations=CH-DE-AT-FR-IT-EU-XC&start=1992 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2019...

addicted 6y ago
The first article you have quoted does not support your claim that the reporting was that it was an obviously bad decision to not join. In fact, here’s the first half of the first sentence from that article: > Choosing the security of their traditional isolation and neutrality over the risks and opportunities offered by Europe It mentions both risks and opportunities, which hardly sounds like a claim that there is an obvious economic cost. Most of the article was about how it reflects a growing divide between the industrial/business and rural sides of Switzerland. The closest statement claiming that there would be downsides refers not to joining the EEC specifically, but regional blocs in general. > The country's political and economic establishment argued that the country would lose its competitive edge if it resisted the movement toward regional economic blocs. Some leading business executives and bankers even warned that investment would drop and unemployment would grow. And while Switzerland has not joined the EU, it has definitely greatly integrated with the EU, even adopting EU laws in order to be access the single market.

addicted 6y ago

The first article you have quoted does not support your claim that the reporting was that it was an obviously bad decision to not join. In fact, here’s the first half of the first sentence from that article: > Choosing the security of their traditional isolation and neutrality over the risks and opportunities offered by Europe It mentions both risks and opportunities, which hardly sounds like a claim that there is an obvious economic cost. Most of the article was about how it reflects a growing divide between the industrial/business and rural sides of Switzerland. The closest statement claiming that there would be downsides refers not to joining the EEC specifically, but regional blocs in general. > The country's political and economic establishment argued that the country would lose its competitive edge if it resisted the movement toward regional economic blocs. Some leading business executives and bankers even warned that investment would drop and unemployment would grow. And while Switzerland has not joined the EU, it has definitely greatly integrated with the EU, even adopting EU laws in order to be access the single market.