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I've read many good arguments against cryptos here. If 80% drop happens within the next month, nobody really would be surprised. Cryptos can still easily fail.

I've read many good arguments against cryptos here. If 80% drop happens within the next month, nobody really would be surprised. Cryptos can still easily fail. I hold Ether (just it) because what they are doing is really extraordinary but gazillion things might go wrong with it, Bitcoin, and others.

lifty 6y ago
Do you think the code will fail, the consensus model, or there are no uses cases? If you have concerns about this I would love to hear them. But if you are only afraid that the price can fall 90%, then who cares? Let it fall, there is too much hype anyway, to the point it has created great division between coiners and no-coiners. For example, the 2001 stock market crash, it cleared out projects based on fluff and the rest continued to build. I would reckon we would see a similar dynamic now, but probably with faster market cycles.
- whitepaint 6y ago
  2 most likely possibilities imo: some huge vulnerability that has not yet been found, and something much much better coming out.
  - lifty 6y ago
    Sure, vulnerabilities and bugs can happen. They get fixed and people move on. Something much better coming out is not an existential risk for the cryptocurrency/blockchain space, quite the opposite, it's very positive.
    - whitepaint 6y ago
      Is it positive for Bitcoin if Ethereum proves that POS is way way superior? And if people actually start using Ether as a currency in shops, start using it with many dapps etc.? What if something much better than that comes up? Are you absolutely sure Bitcoin survives in the long-term?
      - hanniabu 6y ago
        I do believe one day Ethereum will overtake Bitcoin, but I think we may be a few years away from that (possibly next cycle). Reason being is that everyone's first exposure to crypto is Bitcoin. It's hard enough for them to understand that. After that they have a better foundation to start understanding Ethereum. Once you understand Ethereum and see the network effects it has and that all innovation is happening there it's pretty easy to see how it has more growth potential. The ability to stake is what I think will really steal from Bitcoin's "store of value" narrative though as it offers people interest and will also lock up circulation which will help with price stability.
- PragmaticPulp 6y ago
  Ask yourself: What drives the price increase? Are people buying because they expect to use Bitcoin? Or because they expect the price will go up? If it's the latter, it's a self-reinforcing cycle: The price goes up because people buy. People buy because the price goes up. So what happens when the popular narrative switches? What happens when the price goes down for years at a time and people watch their money dwindle? Will people wait around for the price to skyrocket again? Or will they see their friends getting rich in altcoins or meme stocks or NFT trading cards and sell their BTC to get in on the next hot trend?
  - nemo44x 6y ago
    The price did go down for about a couple years and here we are today. I think if anything people are more likely to buy the dips and see it as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to. So what drives the increase in price? Many reasons. Because it's going up? Sure, that's accounts for some. It's a store of value against a government that printed 22% of all dollars ever created last year? Yeah. In a world that seems increasingly chaotic and unpredictable in places that always seemed stable it is attractive because it's a global store of value that can be tapped if you ever have to flee? Sure. I think these are just a few reasons why it's going up in value. It's quite scarce and everyone knows the rules and no one controls it. Not a government, a corporation, or a person. So yeah, it can and probably will take hits but I think in the long run it's just a thing that makes a lot of sense to more and more people as part of a well diversified portfolio.
    - PragmaticPulp 6y ago
      > It's a store of value against a government that printed 22% of all dollars ever created last year? What asset isn't a store of value? Inflation, by definition, is when the price of something inflates. Bitcoin's price is inflating in dollar terms. Someone invested in stocks and real estate is protected from US dollar inflation. The idea that Bitcoin is the only way to protect against inflation, or even that it's a good way to protect against inflation, is largely a narrative pressed by people who want you to buy more Bitcoin. That is, they want you to inflate Bitcoin via demand-pull inflation. Ironic, isn't it? > is attractive because it's a global store of value that can be tapped if you ever have to flee? You really think all those people buying and holding Bitcoin in their Coinbase and Robinhood accounts are doing so because they might flee the country? Again, the narrative that Bitcoin is a mechanism for fleeing oppressive governments is largely a myth. If someone wanted to get their money out of a country, they don't need to invest in Bitcoin long-term. They just need to transfer in, cross the border, and transfer out. Let's be honest: Most people are speculating. > It's quite scarce It was literally invented out of thin air by programming. The maximum number is finite, but it's ironic to declare a resource scarce when there are thousands of altcoins online, and even multiple forks of Bitcoin. > I think in the long run it's just a thing that makes a lot of sense to more and more people as part of a well diversified portfolio. Price goes up because other people buy it because price goes up...

lifty 6y ago

Do you think the code will fail, the consensus model, or there are no uses cases? If you have concerns about this I would love to hear them. But if you are only afraid that the price can fall 90%, then who cares? Let it fall, there is too much hype anyway, to the point it has created great division between coiners and no-coiners. For example, the 2001 stock market crash, it cleared out projects based on fluff and the rest continued to build. I would reckon we would see a similar dynamic now, but probably with faster market cycles.

whitepaint 6y ago
2 most likely possibilities imo: some huge vulnerability that has not yet been found, and something much much better coming out.
- lifty 6y ago
  Sure, vulnerabilities and bugs can happen. They get fixed and people move on. Something much better coming out is not an existential risk for the cryptocurrency/blockchain space, quite the opposite, it's very positive.
  - whitepaint 6y ago
    Is it positive for Bitcoin if Ethereum proves that POS is way way superior? And if people actually start using Ether as a currency in shops, start using it with many dapps etc.? What if something much better than that comes up? Are you absolutely sure Bitcoin survives in the long-term?
    - hanniabu 6y ago
      I do believe one day Ethereum will overtake Bitcoin, but I think we may be a few years away from that (possibly next cycle). Reason being is that everyone's first exposure to crypto is Bitcoin. It's hard enough for them to understand that. After that they have a better foundation to start understanding Ethereum. Once you understand Ethereum and see the network effects it has and that all innovation is happening there it's pretty easy to see how it has more growth potential. The ability to stake is what I think will really steal from Bitcoin's "store of value" narrative though as it offers people interest and will also lock up circulation which will help with price stability.
PragmaticPulp 6y ago
Ask yourself: What drives the price increase? Are people buying because they expect to use Bitcoin? Or because they expect the price will go up? If it's the latter, it's a self-reinforcing cycle: The price goes up because people buy. People buy because the price goes up. So what happens when the popular narrative switches? What happens when the price goes down for years at a time and people watch their money dwindle? Will people wait around for the price to skyrocket again? Or will they see their friends getting rich in altcoins or meme stocks or NFT trading cards and sell their BTC to get in on the next hot trend?
- nemo44x 6y ago
  The price did go down for about a couple years and here we are today. I think if anything people are more likely to buy the dips and see it as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to. So what drives the increase in price? Many reasons. Because it's going up? Sure, that's accounts for some. It's a store of value against a government that printed 22% of all dollars ever created last year? Yeah. In a world that seems increasingly chaotic and unpredictable in places that always seemed stable it is attractive because it's a global store of value that can be tapped if you ever have to flee? Sure. I think these are just a few reasons why it's going up in value. It's quite scarce and everyone knows the rules and no one controls it. Not a government, a corporation, or a person. So yeah, it can and probably will take hits but I think in the long run it's just a thing that makes a lot of sense to more and more people as part of a well diversified portfolio.
  - PragmaticPulp 6y ago
    > It's a store of value against a government that printed 22% of all dollars ever created last year? What asset isn't a store of value? Inflation, by definition, is when the price of something inflates. Bitcoin's price is inflating in dollar terms. Someone invested in stocks and real estate is protected from US dollar inflation. The idea that Bitcoin is the only way to protect against inflation, or even that it's a good way to protect against inflation, is largely a narrative pressed by people who want you to buy more Bitcoin. That is, they want you to inflate Bitcoin via demand-pull inflation. Ironic, isn't it? > is attractive because it's a global store of value that can be tapped if you ever have to flee? You really think all those people buying and holding Bitcoin in their Coinbase and Robinhood accounts are doing so because they might flee the country? Again, the narrative that Bitcoin is a mechanism for fleeing oppressive governments is largely a myth. If someone wanted to get their money out of a country, they don't need to invest in Bitcoin long-term. They just need to transfer in, cross the border, and transfer out. Let's be honest: Most people are speculating. > It's quite scarce It was literally invented out of thin air by programming. The maximum number is finite, but it's ironic to declare a resource scarce when there are thousands of altcoins online, and even multiple forks of Bitcoin. > I think in the long run it's just a thing that makes a lot of sense to more and more people as part of a well diversified portfolio. Price goes up because other people buy it because price goes up...