4 ms·

The cost structure of computing product manufacturers is changing, there is no longer a dire need for manufacturers to sacrifice margin to Wintel. Windows/offic

The cost structure of computing product manufacturers is changing, there is no longer a dire need for manufacturers to sacrifice margin to Wintel. Windows/office lock-In is dissolving. Any network-effect of being a Windows user is dissipating. As software capability moves to the cloud, and open-standards are adopted there simply isn't room for a bloated/expensive OS. Decades ago I would not have bet against Windows, but today you can sense a perfect storm of competition approaching their gates. If in 5 years Windows is still a dominant piece of software I will be surprised. However, I won't be surprised if Microsoft is still a main technology player in 5 years.

pragmatic 15y ago
Windows will dominate business for at least 10 years. Office isn't the lock in. It's all those Line of Business (LOB) Apps that run on Windows. Ironically many require internet explorer and are built in...Java, oddly enough. Marketing departments could switch tomorrow. Operations (depending on industry) are locked in for years. Some are lucky enough to web based options, some are stuck on what they have.
- bgruber 15y ago
  But those applications locked in to Windows are frequently locked in to old versions, so they won't move to Windows 8.
- MatthewPhillips 15y ago
  Java on the west coast, .NET on the east coast.
georgieporgie 15y ago
Windows/office lock-In is dissolving It is? I'm genuinely curious to know what leads you to believe that.
- jamesmcintyre 15y ago
  A combination of the ever-lower barriers-to-entry for software development and increasing adoption of open standards. Nearly all my friends (many non-techie) have switched to mac without a hitch. Some use Office for Mac, some use iWork. The only users that are tied to Windows/Office are probably corporate/business users and that's certainly Microsoft's last stronghold. The I.T. workforce has been programmed into the Microsoft ecosystem with a technical education of proprietary standards BUT what happens when it's developers who run the show? As the cloud decreases the need for much of the I.T. staff of your average company the leverage is shifted to web technology companies (and there developer ecosystems). As we speak, somewhere in the world, an I.T. guy who used to maintain the email servers looses his job and in place Google offers the company hosted Google apps for a fraction of the cost. Google develops it's suite of office apps to be adequate MS office replacements within 3 years and easily convinces the company not to renew it's Microsoft Office licensing. Google Apps marketplace offers web-based alternatives to many legacy Windows software like the tightly integrated Salesforce Suite (with it's own web developer ecosystem). Without the need for Windows applications the company switches to a managed enterprise linux OS. All the ducks are lined up, now hundreds of capable tech companies are beginning to execute their to-market strategies. I'm not saying there is no Windows lock-in, what i am saying is that the Windows/Office lock-in strategy is becoming ever less defensible in a highly competitive market with lower barriers to entry. When you realize that more and more VC capital is going into non-consumer web technologies, once you see that pool of dispersed rapid research and development you begin to see the force Microsoft is up against.
  - georgieporgie 15y ago
    I pretty much disagree with you entirely. I think you're looking at it from your own technical perspective, which doesn't accurately reflect the average.
    - jamesmcintyre 15y ago
      Your version of reality is incompatible with this one: http://onforb.es/iCBqdj http://onforb.es/iCBqdj I'm asserting that if Microsoft's software lock-in strategy were effective Apple could not possibly make such gains into the enterprise/pc market.

pragmatic 15y ago

Windows will dominate business for at least 10 years. Office isn't the lock in. It's all those Line of Business (LOB) Apps that run on Windows. Ironically many require internet explorer and are built in...Java, oddly enough. Marketing departments could switch tomorrow. Operations (depending on industry) are locked in for years. Some are lucky enough to web based options, some are stuck on what they have.

bgruber 15y ago
But those applications locked in to Windows are frequently locked in to old versions, so they won't move to Windows 8.
MatthewPhillips 15y ago
Java on the west coast, .NET on the east coast.

georgieporgie 15y ago

Windows/office lock-In is dissolving It is? I'm genuinely curious to know what leads you to believe that.

jamesmcintyre 15y ago
A combination of the ever-lower barriers-to-entry for software development and increasing adoption of open standards. Nearly all my friends (many non-techie) have switched to mac without a hitch. Some use Office for Mac, some use iWork. The only users that are tied to Windows/Office are probably corporate/business users and that's certainly Microsoft's last stronghold. The I.T. workforce has been programmed into the Microsoft ecosystem with a technical education of proprietary standards BUT what happens when it's developers who run the show? As the cloud decreases the need for much of the I.T. staff of your average company the leverage is shifted to web technology companies (and there developer ecosystems). As we speak, somewhere in the world, an I.T. guy who used to maintain the email servers looses his job and in place Google offers the company hosted Google apps for a fraction of the cost. Google develops it's suite of office apps to be adequate MS office replacements within 3 years and easily convinces the company not to renew it's Microsoft Office licensing. Google Apps marketplace offers web-based alternatives to many legacy Windows software like the tightly integrated Salesforce Suite (with it's own web developer ecosystem). Without the need for Windows applications the company switches to a managed enterprise linux OS. All the ducks are lined up, now hundreds of capable tech companies are beginning to execute their to-market strategies. I'm not saying there is no Windows lock-in, what i am saying is that the Windows/Office lock-in strategy is becoming ever less defensible in a highly competitive market with lower barriers to entry. When you realize that more and more VC capital is going into non-consumer web technologies, once you see that pool of dispersed rapid research and development you begin to see the force Microsoft is up against.
- georgieporgie 15y ago
  I pretty much disagree with you entirely. I think you're looking at it from your own technical perspective, which doesn't accurately reflect the average.
  - jamesmcintyre 15y ago
    Your version of reality is incompatible with this one: http://onforb.es/iCBqdj http://onforb.es/iCBqdj I'm asserting that if Microsoft's software lock-in strategy were effective Apple could not possibly make such gains into the enterprise/pc market.