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> In fact bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to have a better understanding of fiat than the average person, due to the value proposition of cryptocurrencies." is j

> In fact bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to have a better understanding of fiat than the average person, due to the value proposition of cryptocurrencies." is just as dubious due to the lack of data. We have plenty of data, we have the discussions and promotion efforts surrounding bitcoin where the contrast between the hard cap on bitcoins and the continually depreciating fiat currency was a prominent selling point. > It seems presumptive to think that this entire enterprise is being sustained by ideological purity and noble goals, rather than a ton of people interested in trading a valuable (in fiat!) asset, facilitating capital flight from restrictive regimes, attempting to justify Tesla's stock price, Its not really ideological purity to be aware of the fact that one asset is designed to depreciate and another asset is not. Its just basic fundamentals. Why would enthusiasts and bandwagoners sink money into bitcoin in order to support tesla’s stock price? That sounds like a conspiracy theory. > facilitating capital flight from restrictive regimes Thats certainly another value proposition that appears alongside the hard cap on units. > than a ton of people interested in trading a valuable (in fiat!) asset Why would a ton of people be interested in trading an asset? What indication do you have that they are unaware of the implications of the asset trending higher and higher relative to fiat? > Occam's razor would suggest more people are driven by the profit motive from bitcoin than actually realizing a utopian future. Doubtful. The simplest explanation is that they are purchasing based on the stated reasons that people have purchased up until now. Your alternate hypothesis is more complicated, so Occam’s razor does not suggest this.

Apocryphon 6y ago
> we have the discussions and promotion efforts surrounding bitcoin The best promotion for BTC is simply its price, the ease of setting up a Coinbase account, and mooning memes of $100k/coin. > Why would enthusiasts and bandwagoners sink money into bitcoin in order to support tesla’s stock price? Tesla, currently less than 1% of the global auto market, is worth more than several of the largest automakers combined. Musk pushing "to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity" by buying into an asset which is currently in a bull cycle is a good way to attempt to justify that price. > Why would a ton of people be interested in trading an asset? What indication do you have that they are unaware of the implications of the asset trending higher and higher relative to fiat? Simply compare the price of BTC now to where it was a year ago, and take a look at its trajectory on the chart. > Your alternate hypothesis is more complicated, so Occam’s razor does not suggest this. Animal spirits are self-explanatory. https://qz.com/1971100/buying-bitcoin-after-an-elon-musk-tweet-is-a-rational-move/ https://qz.com/1971100/buying-bitcoin-after-an-elon-musk-twe...
- chordalkeyboard 6y ago
  > The best promotion for BTC is simply its price How is the astronomical price a promotion? People want thing when they can get them for less, not pay a record price for them. If you think bitcoin is a good deal at its current price then you must believe there’s some underlying fundamental that makes it worth tens of thousands of dollars. > the ease of setting up a Coinbase account, and mooning memes of $100k/coin. There’s no value proposition to having a coinbase account except acquiring cryptocurrency. One doesn’t even need to hold btc to post or enjoy memes. These have little and nothing to do with the cause of the high price. > Tesla, currently less than 1% of the global auto market, is worth more than several of the largest automakers combined. Musk pushing "to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity" by buying into an asset which is currently in a bull cycle is a good way to attempt to justify that price. That explains why Musk would buy it. That does not explain why anyone else would buy it. > Simply compare the price of BTC now to where it was a year ago, and take a look at its trajectory on the chart. Obviously, if there weren’t fundamentals, now would be a good time to sell. > Animal spirits are self-explanatory. Animal spirits are an unnecessary hypothesis for this event.
  - Apocryphon 6y ago
    > How is the astronomical price a promotion? Because people are expecting it to get to $100k, which means it's a hot commodity in a speculative bubble. Not everyone who buys into a bubble believes that the underlying fundamentals justify the price in the long run- they just believe that there's room to grow, and that there are greater fools to sell to. > These have little and nothing to do with the cause of the high price. Just like the ease and lack of fees of Robinhood spur more stock-buying, Coinbase makes trading crypto easy and facilitates more bandwagoners who further pump up the price. > That explains why Musk would buy it. That does not explain why anyone else would buy it. I brought up that reason with Musk in mind. And Tesla buying it has direct second order effects- it popularizes and legitimizes BTC and cause more to buy into it, whether they're familiar with the underlying intentions of BTC or not. > Obviously, if there weren’t fundamentals, now would be a good time to sell. People buying in now believe there's still room for the price to rise. An asset with solid fundamentals (Tesla stock, GameStop call options) can also be wildly overvalued. I'm sure similar conversations were happening in 2018. > Animal spirits are an unnecessary hypothesis for this event. Look at the market. Look at the economy. Everything is animal spirits now in search of yield. https://themargins.substack.com/p/zirp-explains-the-world https://themargins.substack.com/p/zirp-explains-the-world

Apocryphon 6y ago

> we have the discussions and promotion efforts surrounding bitcoin The best promotion for BTC is simply its price, the ease of setting up a Coinbase account, and mooning memes of $100k/coin. > Why would enthusiasts and bandwagoners sink money into bitcoin in order to support tesla’s stock price? Tesla, currently less than 1% of the global auto market, is worth more than several of the largest automakers combined. Musk pushing "to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity" by buying into an asset which is currently in a bull cycle is a good way to attempt to justify that price. > Why would a ton of people be interested in trading an asset? What indication do you have that they are unaware of the implications of the asset trending higher and higher relative to fiat? Simply compare the price of BTC now to where it was a year ago, and take a look at its trajectory on the chart. > Your alternate hypothesis is more complicated, so Occam’s razor does not suggest this. Animal spirits are self-explanatory. https://qz.com/1971100/buying-bitcoin-after-an-elon-musk-tweet-is-a-rational-move/ https://qz.com/1971100/buying-bitcoin-after-an-elon-musk-twe...

chordalkeyboard 6y ago
> The best promotion for BTC is simply its price How is the astronomical price a promotion? People want thing when they can get them for less, not pay a record price for them. If you think bitcoin is a good deal at its current price then you must believe there’s some underlying fundamental that makes it worth tens of thousands of dollars. > the ease of setting up a Coinbase account, and mooning memes of $100k/coin. There’s no value proposition to having a coinbase account except acquiring cryptocurrency. One doesn’t even need to hold btc to post or enjoy memes. These have little and nothing to do with the cause of the high price. > Tesla, currently less than 1% of the global auto market, is worth more than several of the largest automakers combined. Musk pushing "to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity" by buying into an asset which is currently in a bull cycle is a good way to attempt to justify that price. That explains why Musk would buy it. That does not explain why anyone else would buy it. > Simply compare the price of BTC now to where it was a year ago, and take a look at its trajectory on the chart. Obviously, if there weren’t fundamentals, now would be a good time to sell. > Animal spirits are self-explanatory. Animal spirits are an unnecessary hypothesis for this event.
- Apocryphon 6y ago
  > How is the astronomical price a promotion? Because people are expecting it to get to $100k, which means it's a hot commodity in a speculative bubble. Not everyone who buys into a bubble believes that the underlying fundamentals justify the price in the long run- they just believe that there's room to grow, and that there are greater fools to sell to. > These have little and nothing to do with the cause of the high price. Just like the ease and lack of fees of Robinhood spur more stock-buying, Coinbase makes trading crypto easy and facilitates more bandwagoners who further pump up the price. > That explains why Musk would buy it. That does not explain why anyone else would buy it. I brought up that reason with Musk in mind. And Tesla buying it has direct second order effects- it popularizes and legitimizes BTC and cause more to buy into it, whether they're familiar with the underlying intentions of BTC or not. > Obviously, if there weren’t fundamentals, now would be a good time to sell. People buying in now believe there's still room for the price to rise. An asset with solid fundamentals (Tesla stock, GameStop call options) can also be wildly overvalued. I'm sure similar conversations were happening in 2018. > Animal spirits are an unnecessary hypothesis for this event. Look at the market. Look at the economy. Everything is animal spirits now in search of yield. https://themargins.substack.com/p/zirp-explains-the-world https://themargins.substack.com/p/zirp-explains-the-world