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> Most bitcoin enthusiasts at this point are more likely to be speculators who enjoy amassing (currently) rapidly appreciating assets that can be converted back

> Most bitcoin enthusiasts at this point are more likely to be speculators who enjoy amassing (currently) rapidly appreciating assets that can be converted back to fiat currency, than deeply-committed ideologues who are familiar with the economic implications of the project. I think you may be conflating recent bandwagoners with enthusiasts. “There’s a limit to the number of bitcoin but the government can print as many dollars as they want” is a value proposition that bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to be familiar with.

Apocryphon 6y ago
I would assume bandwagoners have outnumbered the "enthusiasts" at this point. And the bandwagoners are just as enthusiastic about bitcoin as the true believers, as they have skin in the game. It just happens to be monetary instead of ideological.
- chordalkeyboard 6y ago
  Without any source of data, there’s no way to know. There’s just no reason to believe that bitcoiners would have a worse understanding of fiat currency than non-bitcoiners. That would be like saying people who watch nascar don’t seem to understand how tires contribute to traction.
  - Apocryphon 6y ago
    But on the flip side, your original statement of "In fact bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to have a better understanding of fiat than the average person, due to the value proposition of cryptocurrencies." is just as dubious due to the lack of data. It seems presumptive to think that this entire enterprise is being sustained by ideological purity and noble goals, rather than a ton of people interested in trading a valuable (in fiat!) asset, facilitating capital flight from restrictive regimes, attempting to justify Tesla's stock price, etc. Occam's razor would suggest more people are driven by the profit motive from bitcoin than actually realizing a utopian future.
    - chordalkeyboard 6y ago
      > In fact bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to have a better understanding of fiat than the average person, due to the value proposition of cryptocurrencies." is just as dubious due to the lack of data. We have plenty of data, we have the discussions and promotion efforts surrounding bitcoin where the contrast between the hard cap on bitcoins and the continually depreciating fiat currency was a prominent selling point. > It seems presumptive to think that this entire enterprise is being sustained by ideological purity and noble goals, rather than a ton of people interested in trading a valuable (in fiat!) asset, facilitating capital flight from restrictive regimes, attempting to justify Tesla's stock price, Its not really ideological purity to be aware of the fact that one asset is designed to depreciate and another asset is not. Its just basic fundamentals. Why would enthusiasts and bandwagoners sink money into bitcoin in order to support tesla’s stock price? That sounds like a conspiracy theory. > facilitating capital flight from restrictive regimes Thats certainly another value proposition that appears alongside the hard cap on units. > than a ton of people interested in trading a valuable (in fiat!) asset Why would a ton of people be interested in trading an asset? What indication do you have that they are unaware of the implications of the asset trending higher and higher relative to fiat? > Occam's razor would suggest more people are driven by the profit motive from bitcoin than actually realizing a utopian future. Doubtful. The simplest explanation is that they are purchasing based on the stated reasons that people have purchased up until now. Your alternate hypothesis is more complicated, so Occam’s razor does not suggest this.
      - Apocryphon 6y ago
        > we have the discussions and promotion efforts surrounding bitcoin The best promotion for BTC is simply its price, the ease of setting up a Coinbase account, and mooning memes of $100k/coin. > Why would enthusiasts and bandwagoners sink money into bitcoin in order to support tesla’s stock price? Tesla, currently less than 1% of the global auto market, is worth more than several of the largest automakers combined. Musk pushing "to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity" by buying into an asset which is currently in a bull cycle is a good way to attempt to justify that price. > Why would a ton of people be interested in trading an asset? What indication do you have that they are unaware of the implications of the asset trending higher and higher relative to fiat? Simply compare the price of BTC now to where it was a year ago, and take a look at its trajectory on the chart. > Your alternate hypothesis is more complicated, so Occam’s razor does not suggest this. Animal spirits are self-explanatory. https://qz.com/1971100/buying-bitcoin-after-an-elon-musk-tweet-is-a-rational-move/ https://qz.com/1971100/buying-bitcoin-after-an-elon-musk-twe...

Apocryphon 6y ago

I would assume bandwagoners have outnumbered the "enthusiasts" at this point. And the bandwagoners are just as enthusiastic about bitcoin as the true believers, as they have skin in the game. It just happens to be monetary instead of ideological.

chordalkeyboard 6y ago
Without any source of data, there’s no way to know. There’s just no reason to believe that bitcoiners would have a worse understanding of fiat currency than non-bitcoiners. That would be like saying people who watch nascar don’t seem to understand how tires contribute to traction.
- Apocryphon 6y ago
  But on the flip side, your original statement of "In fact bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to have a better understanding of fiat than the average person, due to the value proposition of cryptocurrencies." is just as dubious due to the lack of data. It seems presumptive to think that this entire enterprise is being sustained by ideological purity and noble goals, rather than a ton of people interested in trading a valuable (in fiat!) asset, facilitating capital flight from restrictive regimes, attempting to justify Tesla's stock price, etc. Occam's razor would suggest more people are driven by the profit motive from bitcoin than actually realizing a utopian future.
  - chordalkeyboard 6y ago
    > In fact bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to have a better understanding of fiat than the average person, due to the value proposition of cryptocurrencies." is just as dubious due to the lack of data. We have plenty of data, we have the discussions and promotion efforts surrounding bitcoin where the contrast between the hard cap on bitcoins and the continually depreciating fiat currency was a prominent selling point. > It seems presumptive to think that this entire enterprise is being sustained by ideological purity and noble goals, rather than a ton of people interested in trading a valuable (in fiat!) asset, facilitating capital flight from restrictive regimes, attempting to justify Tesla's stock price, Its not really ideological purity to be aware of the fact that one asset is designed to depreciate and another asset is not. Its just basic fundamentals. Why would enthusiasts and bandwagoners sink money into bitcoin in order to support tesla’s stock price? That sounds like a conspiracy theory. > facilitating capital flight from restrictive regimes Thats certainly another value proposition that appears alongside the hard cap on units. > than a ton of people interested in trading a valuable (in fiat!) asset Why would a ton of people be interested in trading an asset? What indication do you have that they are unaware of the implications of the asset trending higher and higher relative to fiat? > Occam's razor would suggest more people are driven by the profit motive from bitcoin than actually realizing a utopian future. Doubtful. The simplest explanation is that they are purchasing based on the stated reasons that people have purchased up until now. Your alternate hypothesis is more complicated, so Occam’s razor does not suggest this.
    - Apocryphon 6y ago
      > we have the discussions and promotion efforts surrounding bitcoin The best promotion for BTC is simply its price, the ease of setting up a Coinbase account, and mooning memes of $100k/coin. > Why would enthusiasts and bandwagoners sink money into bitcoin in order to support tesla’s stock price? Tesla, currently less than 1% of the global auto market, is worth more than several of the largest automakers combined. Musk pushing "to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity" by buying into an asset which is currently in a bull cycle is a good way to attempt to justify that price. > Why would a ton of people be interested in trading an asset? What indication do you have that they are unaware of the implications of the asset trending higher and higher relative to fiat? Simply compare the price of BTC now to where it was a year ago, and take a look at its trajectory on the chart. > Your alternate hypothesis is more complicated, so Occam’s razor does not suggest this. Animal spirits are self-explanatory. https://qz.com/1971100/buying-bitcoin-after-an-elon-musk-tweet-is-a-rational-move/ https://qz.com/1971100/buying-bitcoin-after-an-elon-musk-twe...