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Devil's advocste: why can't the US do that via Taiwan as it does currently? They're an ally, they're totally reliant on the US and afraid of the PRC. Won't we

Devil's advocste: why can't the US do that via Taiwan as it does currently? They're an ally, they're totally reliant on the US and afraid of the PRC. Won't we also need "rare" earth metal supplies to of it is a vital industry we can't cope with being overseas? And then there is the fact the fab machines all come from Belgium.

wcarss 6y ago
No horse in the race on either side here but just to answer the devil's advocate: it's pretty easy to imagine a future where China could establish a trade blockade of Taiwan, putting the US in the position of "potentially start a war, or go without Taiwanese goods" -- that's like the diplomatic equivalent of a Fork[1]. If you depend on it, and you can do it at home, you should. And "but what about ______, then?" (e.g. rare earths, fab machines) does not mean that all other "______" (e.g. chips) should follow suit. You control what you can. 1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fork_(chess) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fork_(chess)
dragontamer 6y ago
Taiwan is a great ally. But if a war breaks out between US and China, Taiwan will likely be the first casualty. Nothing against Taiwan or anything. Its just the bloody obvious "first strike" move. China will almost certainly attack Taiwan as part of an offensive-strategy vs the USA. Having fabs on this side of the Pacific Ocean is important for strategic defense reasons. Of course, the US should move to defend Taiwan in that situation, but if worst-comes-to-worst, we'll need a way to produce chips under such a scenario. ------- This story is about Samsung however, which is South Korean. North Korea now has nuclear weapons, as well as tons of artillery pointing at South Korea. For the Samsung-side of things: same thing. South Korea are great allies, but if the North Korean war ever gets started again, Samsung's production inside the US-proper would be a strategic advantage.
- hanklazard 6y ago
  True. It's also important to remember that Taiwan is located in a seismically active region ...
- baybal2 6y ago
  > Taiwan is a great ally. Should I remind of the fact that Taiwan was very glad to sell any amount of semiconductors to mainland China. If anybody had an option to strangle them economically, it would've been Taiwanese themselves. China is world's biggest semiconductor market. If the tap will close on their semiconductor imports, so would've their economy at large. Now, it's them, and not US who has to regret their prior indecisiveness the most. Now of course attitudes have changed in Taipei, but only now. I bet, in the next 5-10 years, Japan, and Korea will have their own time regretting being soft with Beijing just like that.
  - dragontamer 6y ago
    > Should I remind of the fact that Taiwan was very glad to sell any amount of semiconductors to mainland China. And US companies moved production to China. Apple, TSLA, etc. etc. Yeah, we're in peacetime. These things happen. We're not planning to go to war with China, but we need to be realistic about potential threats in the future. There's something to be said about the ability for trade to reduce tensions. I don't think trade with China is necessarily bad.
  - nl 6y ago
    > Should I remind of the fact that Taiwan was very glad to sell any amount of semiconductors to mainland China. > If anybody had an option to strangle them economically, it would've been Taiwanese themselves > China is world's biggest semiconductor market. If the tap will close on their semiconductor imports, so would've their economy at large. Why would anyone (least of all Taiwan) want this? Trade isn't a zero-sum game, and both parties benefit from it. Trade wars are very unpredictable, as the way the US lost the Trump-era trade war with China shows. It's true that some in the US see China as a rival that must be "strangled". Views outside the US are much more nuanced - China isn't going to disappear and is way too big to just strangle. There are major issues dealing with China, though.
    - free_rms 6y ago
      US politics have had a "big bad" for 80 straight years now, it's basically a reflex.
genericone 6y ago
Which fab machines are you referencing? Atmospheric modules? Vacuum modules? Or maybe not talking about the process tools at all, and more along the lines of inter-fab equipment?
- LatteLazy 6y ago
  I won't pretend I know, fabrication seems very technical and I get the vague idea but I'm also an idiot. I was referring to ASML Holdings. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
- BostonEnginerd 6y ago
  The equipment industry is global. US, European and Japanese companies make up most of the largest equipment suppliers. Regardless of where they’re headquartered, most of those companies also have global R&D footprints.
nexthash 6y ago
A couple of strategic reasons: Taiwan's proximity to the PRC would knock out fab production should a war occur between the two. Also, the same proximity could lead to unwanted IP transfer, which could compromise US national security if China gets its hands on any new chip tech the US develops. Taiwan is a great ally to the US and having it manufacture chips is good for both economies, but if the US wants to lower risk and keep control of its technological edge it is in its interests to keep manufacturing domestic.
pkaye 6y ago
> Devil's advocste: why can't the US do that via Taiwan as it does currently? I think TSMC was working on a similar deal. > Won't we also need "rare" earth metal supplies to of it is a vital industry we can't cope with being overseas? Rare earth materials are available in the US but due to cost competitiveness, all the mining happens overseas. Also the mining process has environmental impacts some countries choose to ignore. > And then there is the fact the fab machines all come from Belgium. Which company in Belgium make the fab machines. The biggest manufacturer of semiconductor fabrication equipment are Applied Materials and Lam Research, both in the bay area. ASML from Netherlands make the critical Photolithography equipment however. Beyond this, there are hundred of mid and smaller companies involved all over the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_equipment_sales_leaders_by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_equipment_sales_...
philipkglass 6y ago
There are also rare earth separation plants being built in Texas. "DOD Awards $30.4 Million for Rare Earth Minerals Facility in Texas" The Department of Defense and Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. will each contribute $30 million to establish a rare earths processing facility in Texas. https://thetexan.news/dod-awards-30-4-million-for-rare-earth-minerals-facility-in-texas/ https://thetexan.news/dod-awards-30-4-million-for-rare-earth... But that doesn't actually have much to do with advanced microprocessor fabs. The "tech" uses for rare earth elements are primarily in making magnets, lasers, and phosphors.
totalZero 6y ago
Geography puts us into a perpetual contortionist act. Taiwan is very close to China so our looming presence is perpetually necessary to ward off the dragon, so to speak. For example, what happens if China decides to take one of the Matsu Islands? The US is obligated to respond with aggression, and Europe too. Not out of alliance, but out of strategic and economic necessity to keep the second domino from falling. It's foolish to leave that kind of pressure point exposed to an adversary. Sooner or later, each side will feel it is defending itself against an aggressor and both will engage in what they see as a righteous war. We can make Taiwan more secure by making it less of a pressure point and freeing our hands strategically. If we are going to react to Chinese aggression with American aggression to protect an ally, it should be decisive not reflexive.

wcarss 6y ago

No horse in the race on either side here but just to answer the devil's advocate: it's pretty easy to imagine a future where China could establish a trade blockade of Taiwan, putting the US in the position of "potentially start a war, or go without Taiwanese goods" -- that's like the diplomatic equivalent of a Fork[1]. If you depend on it, and you can do it at home, you should. And "but what about ______, then?" (e.g. rare earths, fab machines) does not mean that all other "______" (e.g. chips) should follow suit. You control what you can. 1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fork_(chess) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fork_(chess)

dragontamer 6y ago

Taiwan is a great ally. But if a war breaks out between US and China, Taiwan will likely be the first casualty. Nothing against Taiwan or anything. Its just the bloody obvious "first strike" move. China will almost certainly attack Taiwan as part of an offensive-strategy vs the USA. Having fabs on this side of the Pacific Ocean is important for strategic defense reasons. Of course, the US should move to defend Taiwan in that situation, but if worst-comes-to-worst, we'll need a way to produce chips under such a scenario. ------- This story is about Samsung however, which is South Korean. North Korea now has nuclear weapons, as well as tons of artillery pointing at South Korea. For the Samsung-side of things: same thing. South Korea are great allies, but if the North Korean war ever gets started again, Samsung's production inside the US-proper would be a strategic advantage.

hanklazard 6y ago
True. It's also important to remember that Taiwan is located in a seismically active region ...
baybal2 6y ago
> Taiwan is a great ally. Should I remind of the fact that Taiwan was very glad to sell any amount of semiconductors to mainland China. If anybody had an option to strangle them economically, it would've been Taiwanese themselves. China is world's biggest semiconductor market. If the tap will close on their semiconductor imports, so would've their economy at large. Now, it's them, and not US who has to regret their prior indecisiveness the most. Now of course attitudes have changed in Taipei, but only now. I bet, in the next 5-10 years, Japan, and Korea will have their own time regretting being soft with Beijing just like that.
- dragontamer 6y ago
  > Should I remind of the fact that Taiwan was very glad to sell any amount of semiconductors to mainland China. And US companies moved production to China. Apple, TSLA, etc. etc. Yeah, we're in peacetime. These things happen. We're not planning to go to war with China, but we need to be realistic about potential threats in the future. There's something to be said about the ability for trade to reduce tensions. I don't think trade with China is necessarily bad.
- nl 6y ago
  > Should I remind of the fact that Taiwan was very glad to sell any amount of semiconductors to mainland China. > If anybody had an option to strangle them economically, it would've been Taiwanese themselves > China is world's biggest semiconductor market. If the tap will close on their semiconductor imports, so would've their economy at large. Why would anyone (least of all Taiwan) want this? Trade isn't a zero-sum game, and both parties benefit from it. Trade wars are very unpredictable, as the way the US lost the Trump-era trade war with China shows. It's true that some in the US see China as a rival that must be "strangled". Views outside the US are much more nuanced - China isn't going to disappear and is way too big to just strangle. There are major issues dealing with China, though.
  - free_rms 6y ago
    US politics have had a "big bad" for 80 straight years now, it's basically a reflex.

genericone 6y ago

Which fab machines are you referencing? Atmospheric modules? Vacuum modules? Or maybe not talking about the process tools at all, and more along the lines of inter-fab equipment?

LatteLazy 6y ago
I won't pretend I know, fabrication seems very technical and I get the vague idea but I'm also an idiot. I was referring to ASML Holdings. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
BostonEnginerd 6y ago
The equipment industry is global. US, European and Japanese companies make up most of the largest equipment suppliers. Regardless of where they’re headquartered, most of those companies also have global R&D footprints.

nexthash 6y ago

A couple of strategic reasons: Taiwan's proximity to the PRC would knock out fab production should a war occur between the two. Also, the same proximity could lead to unwanted IP transfer, which could compromise US national security if China gets its hands on any new chip tech the US develops. Taiwan is a great ally to the US and having it manufacture chips is good for both economies, but if the US wants to lower risk and keep control of its technological edge it is in its interests to keep manufacturing domestic.

pkaye 6y ago

> Devil's advocste: why can't the US do that via Taiwan as it does currently? I think TSMC was working on a similar deal. > Won't we also need "rare" earth metal supplies to of it is a vital industry we can't cope with being overseas? Rare earth materials are available in the US but due to cost competitiveness, all the mining happens overseas. Also the mining process has environmental impacts some countries choose to ignore. > And then there is the fact the fab machines all come from Belgium. Which company in Belgium make the fab machines. The biggest manufacturer of semiconductor fabrication equipment are Applied Materials and Lam Research, both in the bay area. ASML from Netherlands make the critical Photolithography equipment however. Beyond this, there are hundred of mid and smaller companies involved all over the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_equipment_sales_leaders_by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_equipment_sales_...

philipkglass 6y ago

There are also rare earth separation plants being built in Texas. "DOD Awards $30.4 Million for Rare Earth Minerals Facility in Texas" The Department of Defense and Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. will each contribute $30 million to establish a rare earths processing facility in Texas. https://thetexan.news/dod-awards-30-4-million-for-rare-earth-minerals-facility-in-texas/ https://thetexan.news/dod-awards-30-4-million-for-rare-earth... But that doesn't actually have much to do with advanced microprocessor fabs. The "tech" uses for rare earth elements are primarily in making magnets, lasers, and phosphors.

totalZero 6y ago

Geography puts us into a perpetual contortionist act. Taiwan is very close to China so our looming presence is perpetually necessary to ward off the dragon, so to speak. For example, what happens if China decides to take one of the Matsu Islands? The US is obligated to respond with aggression, and Europe too. Not out of alliance, but out of strategic and economic necessity to keep the second domino from falling. It's foolish to leave that kind of pressure point exposed to an adversary. Sooner or later, each side will feel it is defending itself against an aggressor and both will engage in what they see as a righteous war. We can make Taiwan more secure by making it less of a pressure point and freeing our hands strategically. If we are going to react to Chinese aggression with American aggression to protect an ally, it should be decisive not reflexive.