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The Crime of Lead Exposure

16 points by cwan 15y ago

JacobAldridge 15y ago
Interesting that the article makes no reference to the Abortion argument put forward in Freakanomics (and defended in its sequel) which argued that making abortions more available in the mid-1970s led to fewer crimes from the 1990s on as those criminals weren't born (that's a bad summary of their detailed argument; don't attack my straw man). In many ways this is why economics is the dismal science, as are its offshoots in the social sciences. There's excellent data to support the lead claim. Excellent data to support the abortion claim. It could be either, both, or neither in varying degrees, since we're backloading outcomes rather than making predictions.
bugsy 15y ago
Thanks for posting that, it's good to see some other explanations for reduced crime. Crime in a society is a very complex phenomenon and not easily explained. I remember a few years ago when Freakanomics popularized the theory that crime went down because of Roe vs Wade increased abortions, in particular abortions of troublesome minorities who cause crime, implying that criminality was correlated to race. This idea is now a widely held belief even though there are lots of things that have changed over the years that you could just as easily also correlate but are not necessarily causal. At least with this one (lead) there is actual known scientific data showing that lead exposure does increase violent behavior and there is a causal link (lead poisoning leading to a specific sort of brain damage). edit: ah and having just pressed post I see that someone else here was thinking of the same comparison.
c0nsilience 15y ago
I'm surprised people keep bringing up the Freakonomics issue. First of all, it was poorly argued in the book. Secondly, Lehrer mentions in the VERY BEGINNING that "the causes are plural." What's most surprising is that he did not once cite Steven Pinker, who has written and argued at great length about the decline of violence in the past few decades.
srbloom 15y ago
What is the modern lead? BPA?

16 points by cwan 15y ago

Interesting that the article makes no reference to the Abortion argument put forward in Freakanomics (and defended in its sequel) which argued that making abortions more available in the mid-1970s led to fewer crimes from the 1990s on as those criminals weren't born (that's a bad summary of their detailed argument; don't attack my straw man). In many ways this is why economics is the dismal science, as are its offshoots in the social sciences. There's excellent data to support the lead claim. Excellent data to support the abortion claim. It could be either, both, or neither in varying degrees, since we're backloading outcomes rather than making predictions.

bugsy 15y ago

Thanks for posting that, it's good to see some other explanations for reduced crime. Crime in a society is a very complex phenomenon and not easily explained. I remember a few years ago when Freakanomics popularized the theory that crime went down because of Roe vs Wade increased abortions, in particular abortions of troublesome minorities who cause crime, implying that criminality was correlated to race. This idea is now a widely held belief even though there are lots of things that have changed over the years that you could just as easily also correlate but are not necessarily causal. At least with this one (lead) there is actual known scientific data showing that lead exposure does increase violent behavior and there is a causal link (lead poisoning leading to a specific sort of brain damage). edit: ah and having just pressed post I see that someone else here was thinking of the same comparison.

c0nsilience 15y ago

I'm surprised people keep bringing up the Freakonomics issue. First of all, it was poorly argued in the book. Secondly, Lehrer mentions in the VERY BEGINNING that "the causes are plural." What's most surprising is that he did not once cite Steven Pinker, who has written and argued at great length about the decline of violence in the past few decades.

srbloom 15y ago

What is the modern lead? BPA?