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So, you think there will be another bubble, before Bitcoin goes out of fashion for climate reasons? I think there is definitely a future for crypto, but surely

So, you think there will be another bubble, before Bitcoin goes out of fashion for climate reasons? I think there is definitely a future for crypto, but surely there isn't for Bitcoin.

kinghajj 6y ago
I don't think Bitcoin will "go out of fashion." In the long run, I believe it will "flip" the market cap of gold and become the new standard hedge against inflation. I've read reports that Bitcoin mining is already being used to subsidize green energy infrastructure. If this trend continues, then its role in making the transition from fossil fuels more economical will outweigh any temporary setbacks it has caused via increased energy consumption. I'm still not really up-to-date on Lightning Network and its potential. But even without that, I think that Bitcoin will remain dominant in the cryptocurrency space due to network effects. It has the best name recognition, the most secure PoW blockchain, and the highest capitalization. Ethereum will likely stay quite relevant, but between its migration to the less-secure PoS system, and its constant inflation rate without any cap (vs. Bitcoin's decreasing one with the 21 million cap), I think that Bitcoin will continue to be prized as a store of value.
- ivanche 6y ago
  Anything claimed to be a hedge against inflation must have positive correlation with inflation. There are 200+ countries in the world and inflation in them is happening at different times and different rates. There's no way that gold knows which country you live at and if there's an inflation there currently.
  - monopoledance 6y ago
    Isn't that because all thing generally become cheaper with technological/economical progression (ecological debt)?
  - kinghajj 6y ago
    Well, sure, no asset will track inflation in any particular country with a perfect correlation, but the markets are pretty good at minimizing arbitrage. I'm sure Venezuelan holders of gold or cryptocurrencies appreciate its use as a hedge. https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/ves https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/ves
- monopoledance 6y ago
  > subsidize green energy infrastructure. That doesn't matter really. It's just energy "wasted" with artificial challenges. The only purpose of digging for hashes is to blow energy... Bitcoin apologists ignore the fact that there are alternatives. There is just no future in that. No energy source is carbon neutral, much less resource-neutral. Western life is too wasteful, we all need to cut back. Bitcoin doesn't fit humanity's future.
vmception 6y ago
Well it is terrawatts of environmentally sustainable energy, so no, as it is an ESG solution thats immediately profitable, filling a void of any economical ESG solution since those haven't existed or had too many other compromises. ex. https://oilmanmagazine.com/how-and-why-natural-gas-flaring-is-being-used-to-mine-bitcoin/ https://oilmanmagazine.com/how-and-why-natural-gas-flaring-i... find a similar source that you recognize and choose to respect same is happening at hydro and wind plants. no energy that would have been sent to another purpose is being used for mining on these sites everything else is a much smaller mining operation for anyone passing by: make sure to post a reason when you disagree. A lot of people have spent a long time not considering the source of energy, and validating their existing negative thoughts on bitcoin, and this hurts their world view.
- T-A 6y ago
  > Well it is terrawatts of environmentally sustainable energy, so no, as it is an ESG solution https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/tesla-s-bitcoin-binge-spells-overtime-for-xinjiang-coal-miners https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/tesla-s-b...
  - vmception 6y ago
    I estimate about 70% of bitcoin mining is ESG (clean or preventing hydrocarbons), that article suggests up to a quarter is coal. Fits.
- monopoledance 6y ago
  > Well it is terrawatts of environmentally sustainable energy No wasting of energy is environmentally sustainable. We exhausted earth's capacity for hydroelectric dams and their "free" energy of the past will be gone, when they operate for their intended purpose of powering new settlements. And do you think bitcoin will thrive when it's all mined with iceland's geothermal monopoly? Nuclear, solar and wind are resource intense "not carbon-based" / "sustainable" technologies, but blowing away their production in unnecessary heat generation is not environmentally sustainable. 1 TW would be 71,000 upcoming SGRE 14MW(!) offshore wind turbines running at max capacity (which of course is completely unrealistic). If you line them up, that would be a wind park of about 16,000 km length, or about twice the distance between Europe and the US. Apart from all the material wasted, maintenance efforts and lives lost, I am sure earth's capacity for wind energy is limited too, as obviously winds don't produce free energy either and over exploitation may, or may not be catastrophic for earth's local climates. E.g. there are ideas to kill American hurricanes with offshore windparks, afaik. And really, the question is never, if your could operate bitcoin with "sustainable" energy production, but what else you could invest the energy in instead. Bitcoin has nothing to offer which justifies its energy demand, as there are (possible) alternatives which cost us less. Bitcoin has no future, if humanity has one.
cwkoss 6y ago
We are already in the midst of the most recent Bitcoin bubble.
- monopoledance 6y ago
  No, I know. I just wonder, if this one is the last. I am following bitcoin for 11 years now. The hype seems to have vanished, it's still not useful much apart from speculation and pump and dump... But now, we also really, really need to think about climate change and wasting energy no matter the source, doesn't appear sensible to me. I think this bubble may go still a lot higher, but I am skeptical, if it will ever recover after the next crash. This is important, because it has implications for those buying in high(-ish). I think this crash could be very different. Different psychology, different positions exiting.

So, you think there will be another bubble, before Bitcoin goes out of fashion for climate reasons? I think there is definitely a future for crypto, but surely there isn't for Bitcoin.

kinghajj 6y ago

I don't think Bitcoin will "go out of fashion." In the long run, I believe it will "flip" the market cap of gold and become the new standard hedge against inflation. I've read reports that Bitcoin mining is already being used to subsidize green energy infrastructure. If this trend continues, then its role in making the transition from fossil fuels more economical will outweigh any temporary setbacks it has caused via increased energy consumption. I'm still not really up-to-date on Lightning Network and its potential. But even without that, I think that Bitcoin will remain dominant in the cryptocurrency space due to network effects. It has the best name recognition, the most secure PoW blockchain, and the highest capitalization. Ethereum will likely stay quite relevant, but between its migration to the less-secure PoS system, and its constant inflation rate without any cap (vs. Bitcoin's decreasing one with the 21 million cap), I think that Bitcoin will continue to be prized as a store of value.

ivanche 6y ago
Anything claimed to be a hedge against inflation must have positive correlation with inflation. There are 200+ countries in the world and inflation in them is happening at different times and different rates. There's no way that gold knows which country you live at and if there's an inflation there currently.
- monopoledance 6y ago
  Isn't that because all thing generally become cheaper with technological/economical progression (ecological debt)?
- kinghajj 6y ago
  Well, sure, no asset will track inflation in any particular country with a perfect correlation, but the markets are pretty good at minimizing arbitrage. I'm sure Venezuelan holders of gold or cryptocurrencies appreciate its use as a hedge. https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/ves https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/ves
monopoledance 6y ago
> subsidize green energy infrastructure. That doesn't matter really. It's just energy "wasted" with artificial challenges. The only purpose of digging for hashes is to blow energy... Bitcoin apologists ignore the fact that there are alternatives. There is just no future in that. No energy source is carbon neutral, much less resource-neutral. Western life is too wasteful, we all need to cut back. Bitcoin doesn't fit humanity's future.

vmception 6y ago

Well it is terrawatts of environmentally sustainable energy, so no, as it is an ESG solution thats immediately profitable, filling a void of any economical ESG solution since those haven't existed or had too many other compromises. ex. https://oilmanmagazine.com/how-and-why-natural-gas-flaring-is-being-used-to-mine-bitcoin/ https://oilmanmagazine.com/how-and-why-natural-gas-flaring-i... find a similar source that you recognize and choose to respect same is happening at hydro and wind plants. no energy that would have been sent to another purpose is being used for mining on these sites everything else is a much smaller mining operation for anyone passing by: make sure to post a reason when you disagree. A lot of people have spent a long time not considering the source of energy, and validating their existing negative thoughts on bitcoin, and this hurts their world view.

T-A 6y ago
> Well it is terrawatts of environmentally sustainable energy, so no, as it is an ESG solution https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/tesla-s-bitcoin-binge-spells-overtime-for-xinjiang-coal-miners https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/tesla-s-b...
- vmception 6y ago
  I estimate about 70% of bitcoin mining is ESG (clean or preventing hydrocarbons), that article suggests up to a quarter is coal. Fits.
monopoledance 6y ago
> Well it is terrawatts of environmentally sustainable energy No wasting of energy is environmentally sustainable. We exhausted earth's capacity for hydroelectric dams and their "free" energy of the past will be gone, when they operate for their intended purpose of powering new settlements. And do you think bitcoin will thrive when it's all mined with iceland's geothermal monopoly? Nuclear, solar and wind are resource intense "not carbon-based" / "sustainable" technologies, but blowing away their production in unnecessary heat generation is not environmentally sustainable. 1 TW would be 71,000 upcoming SGRE 14MW(!) offshore wind turbines running at max capacity (which of course is completely unrealistic). If you line them up, that would be a wind park of about 16,000 km length, or about twice the distance between Europe and the US. Apart from all the material wasted, maintenance efforts and lives lost, I am sure earth's capacity for wind energy is limited too, as obviously winds don't produce free energy either and over exploitation may, or may not be catastrophic for earth's local climates. E.g. there are ideas to kill American hurricanes with offshore windparks, afaik. And really, the question is never, if your could operate bitcoin with "sustainable" energy production, but what else you could invest the energy in instead. Bitcoin has nothing to offer which justifies its energy demand, as there are (possible) alternatives which cost us less. Bitcoin has no future, if humanity has one.

cwkoss 6y ago

We are already in the midst of the most recent Bitcoin bubble.

monopoledance 6y ago
No, I know. I just wonder, if this one is the last. I am following bitcoin for 11 years now. The hype seems to have vanished, it's still not useful much apart from speculation and pump and dump... But now, we also really, really need to think about climate change and wasting energy no matter the source, doesn't appear sensible to me. I think this bubble may go still a lot higher, but I am skeptical, if it will ever recover after the next crash. This is important, because it has implications for those buying in high(-ish). I think this crash could be very different. Different psychology, different positions exiting.