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Yes, of course it's going to happen. The point is that it there is a significant difference between the players. Here are some stats on this (collected by othe

Yes, of course it's going to happen. The point is that it there is a significant difference between the players. Here are some stats on this (collected by other people): https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/habvu8/big_3_matches_lost_after_having_match_points/ https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/habvu8/big_3_matche... https://www.quora.com/How-often-has-Nadal-lost-after-holding-match-points-This-seems-to-happen-often-to-Federer-Does-Nadal-have-the-best-record-in-this-category-or-Djokovic https://www.quora.com/How-often-has-Nadal-lost-after-holding... https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads%2Fmatch-points-saved-and-squandered-by-the-big-four.580186%2F https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads%2Fmatch-po... According the most recent of these threads Federer's lose-after-match-point percentage is 1.4%. Djokovic's is 0.2%. Djokovic also has a much higher win-after-facing-match-point percentage. It's hard to claim that this is purely due to randomness.

throwaway2245 6y ago
I don't find this super convincing. If you want to convince yourself that choking is a thing, then this is a stat you might look at. But, this stat is just as likely to be more influenced by how close your opponent's skill was on that day (how often you play opponents at a similar skill level), your and your opponent's relative stamina, whether those match points appeared in a regular service game or a tiebreak (how often your style of play goes to a tiebreak), and perhaps even pure luck - out of thousands of tour players, some are going to have incredible luck.