The idea isn't to extrapolate predictions; it's to provide a reference to the accuracy of a person's prior assertions. For example, Gordon E. Moore would be ra

The idea isn't to extrapolate predictions; it's to provide a reference to the accuracy of a person's prior assertions. For example, Gordon E. Moore would be rated pretty highly: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law Whereas the (Ex-)Iraqi Information Minister would not: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf It gets interesting when you look at the intersections of predictions. Perhaps Anne and Bob often take incorrect positions, but when they both make the same statement, it is likely to be true.