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Can't really do this, the economy and weather are chaotic systems, which by definition means you can't make predictions. Too many unknown quantities. In economi
by curt 15y ago
Can't really do this, the economy and weather are chaotic systems, which by definition means you can't make predictions. Too many unknown quantities. In economics though we can go back and isolate variables within multiple datasets, but even then you can't extrapolate a prediction since you can't control for every other variable.
For example in economics/policy economists took all the right to work state vs forced unionization states and found far higher growth in non-forced unionization state. Even with this fact you can't make a prediction due to other uncontrolled factors. But you can make generalizations. Just look at California vs Texas, they are too similar to be economically so different.
- DanI-S 15y agoThe idea isn't to extrapolate predictions; it's to provide a reference to the accuracy of a person's prior assertions. For example, Gordon E. Moore would be rated pretty highly: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law Whereas the (Ex-)Iraqi Information Minister would not: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf It gets interesting when you look at the intersections of predictions. Perhaps Anne and Bob often take incorrect positions, but when they both make the same statement, it is likely to be true.