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As Tesla Invests $1.5B in Bitcoin, Former Goldman Exec Ditches Tesla Stock

17 points by hippich 6y ago

rawtxapp 6y ago
Yet their stock was up today.
doggosphere 6y ago
TLDR; guy sells Tesla stock, will buy back in if it gets cheaper. "But despite the hesitation, Black isn’t ruling out the possibility of buying more Tesla stock down the line. “I’ve made a lot of money on $TSLA over the past 18 months,” he wrote, “and will look for a lower entry point to get back in.”"
ttul 6y ago
I did a Harvard Business case study of Tesla a few years ago. Any way you looked at Tesla, they were a house of cards, ready to disintegrate should investors lose faith. Elon Musk is constantly finding new ways to engage investors in an even larger dream. He creates a mythology that drags people in with their capital. The result is a great car company that I am so glad exists. But the stock price is a touch detached from reality and will fall the moment people pop out of the Elon Musk dream state. It’s a desperately risky bet on ever-improving prospects that may not arrive.
- jesterson 6y ago
  Respectfully - no need to have a study on Tesla to come to conclusions you've made. Just critical thinking and some math to do P/E and P/L. > the stock price is a touch detached from reality and will fall the moment people pop out of the Elon Musk dream state. Well said. It's typical Ponzi scheme - it grows while the master keeps showing new focuses and attract new followers. Wake up will be painful though.
  - nickik 6y ago
    P/E has been so consistently been horrible indicators for the stock market that it is actually mind blowing that people still use them. Most analyst that relies on them has among the worst rating on Wallstreet. The same logic was applied to amazon for like 10 years. I'm sure all those people who invested in amazon regret it now that we had that massive crash and amazon has finally been reviled as a Ponzi scheme. P.S: Does anybody else hate that the 'Ponzi Scheme' was once a specific thing and now everybody uses it in every situation where people could lose money. Please learn what 'Ponzi scheme' actually means.
  - elisharobinson 6y ago
    I dont think tesla stock is fairly valued . the same way i believe it was undervalued from 2016 - 2019 what happened in my understanding was that long shorts were tired of paying interest for a stock which just wont move down bellow a support so they decided to close the positions and as they did it hit the stop loss of other shorts cascading .into a short squeeze ... but now after the s&p 500 you cant short it cause there isnt much float available with every single fund forced to buy it ........ that is the story of the stock , but i do take offence to the word "ponzi scheme" the cars are real , the solar roof is real , the exponential growth is real ... you are free to draw the line where you want but "ponzi scheme" is a very legal thing and you better have proof.
- nickik 6y ago
  Maybe a few years ago this was true. Now it is certainty not. Tesla cash on hand and free cashflow numbers mean they can be cashflow positive and continue to grow. I didn't invest in Tesla years ago, because of mythology, but because they had the right plan, in the right markets with the right CEO to execute on that plan. That is exactly what happened. There are simply not many markets so large and few companies that ever have shown consistent growth in those markets. All the claims that people made to disagree with the Bull case simply didn't hold up to actual hold up under investigation. Analysing their growth and operational leverage their investment were generating indicated that most analysts were totally missing the story, that a lot of the negatives would flip and that the stock would reflect that reality eventually. I however am surprised how fast and heavy that flip happened. However Tesla strategy continues to be correct, they are only have the freedom/cash to get into some next generation initiatives and I see a clear path to continued growth for years to come. The team around the CEO is only improving, Tesla is building expertise in literally everything, mining, chemical refining, material science, high speed manufacturing, chip design, various battery technologies like silicon anodes, aluminium die casting, deep learning and so on. I sold some shares to cover my position, but the bull case is still much better then many people give Tesla credit for. The stock might flatten out again for a while as it did before but there is a lot of upside here. Maybe Tesla will fail to execute, that is true, but that doesn't make it 'desperately risky'. Any company, specially any growth company, might fail to execute. The question is how likely is that and how large is the upside if they do execute.
  - ttul 6y ago
    Tesla is no doubt executing fantastically well. Their product is incredible and the team is utterly top notch. Their prospects for growth are wonderful. And even with all of those things in mind, I can help but wonder whether investors would give the company quite so much of their capital were it not for Elon Musk’s incredible ability to craft an ever-enlarging dream of the company’s future.
    - nickik 6y ago
      I think that is a fair assessment. Many in the rocket industry, believe Starship could work reasonably well. If any other company even country had announced Starship, nobody would take it seriously. History of success gives credibility for the next stage.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
jdkee 6y ago
Tesla's P/E though.

17 points by hippich 6y ago

Yet their stock was up today.

TLDR; guy sells Tesla stock, will buy back in if it gets cheaper. "But despite the hesitation, Black isn’t ruling out the possibility of buying more Tesla stock down the line. “I’ve made a lot of money on $TSLA over the past 18 months,” he wrote, “and will look for a lower entry point to get back in.”"

ttul 6y ago

I did a Harvard Business case study of Tesla a few years ago. Any way you looked at Tesla, they were a house of cards, ready to disintegrate should investors lose faith. Elon Musk is constantly finding new ways to engage investors in an even larger dream. He creates a mythology that drags people in with their capital. The result is a great car company that I am so glad exists. But the stock price is a touch detached from reality and will fall the moment people pop out of the Elon Musk dream state. It’s a desperately risky bet on ever-improving prospects that may not arrive.

jesterson 6y ago
Respectfully - no need to have a study on Tesla to come to conclusions you've made. Just critical thinking and some math to do P/E and P/L. > the stock price is a touch detached from reality and will fall the moment people pop out of the Elon Musk dream state. Well said. It's typical Ponzi scheme - it grows while the master keeps showing new focuses and attract new followers. Wake up will be painful though.
- nickik 6y ago
  P/E has been so consistently been horrible indicators for the stock market that it is actually mind blowing that people still use them. Most analyst that relies on them has among the worst rating on Wallstreet. The same logic was applied to amazon for like 10 years. I'm sure all those people who invested in amazon regret it now that we had that massive crash and amazon has finally been reviled as a Ponzi scheme. P.S: Does anybody else hate that the 'Ponzi Scheme' was once a specific thing and now everybody uses it in every situation where people could lose money. Please learn what 'Ponzi scheme' actually means.
- elisharobinson 6y ago
  I dont think tesla stock is fairly valued . the same way i believe it was undervalued from 2016 - 2019 what happened in my understanding was that long shorts were tired of paying interest for a stock which just wont move down bellow a support so they decided to close the positions and as they did it hit the stop loss of other shorts cascading .into a short squeeze ... but now after the s&p 500 you cant short it cause there isnt much float available with every single fund forced to buy it ........ that is the story of the stock , but i do take offence to the word "ponzi scheme" the cars are real , the solar roof is real , the exponential growth is real ... you are free to draw the line where you want but "ponzi scheme" is a very legal thing and you better have proof.
nickik 6y ago
Maybe a few years ago this was true. Now it is certainty not. Tesla cash on hand and free cashflow numbers mean they can be cashflow positive and continue to grow. I didn't invest in Tesla years ago, because of mythology, but because they had the right plan, in the right markets with the right CEO to execute on that plan. That is exactly what happened. There are simply not many markets so large and few companies that ever have shown consistent growth in those markets. All the claims that people made to disagree with the Bull case simply didn't hold up to actual hold up under investigation. Analysing their growth and operational leverage their investment were generating indicated that most analysts were totally missing the story, that a lot of the negatives would flip and that the stock would reflect that reality eventually. I however am surprised how fast and heavy that flip happened. However Tesla strategy continues to be correct, they are only have the freedom/cash to get into some next generation initiatives and I see a clear path to continued growth for years to come. The team around the CEO is only improving, Tesla is building expertise in literally everything, mining, chemical refining, material science, high speed manufacturing, chip design, various battery technologies like silicon anodes, aluminium die casting, deep learning and so on. I sold some shares to cover my position, but the bull case is still much better then many people give Tesla credit for. The stock might flatten out again for a while as it did before but there is a lot of upside here. Maybe Tesla will fail to execute, that is true, but that doesn't make it 'desperately risky'. Any company, specially any growth company, might fail to execute. The question is how likely is that and how large is the upside if they do execute.
- ttul 6y ago
  Tesla is no doubt executing fantastically well. Their product is incredible and the team is utterly top notch. Their prospects for growth are wonderful. And even with all of those things in mind, I can help but wonder whether investors would give the company quite so much of their capital were it not for Elon Musk’s incredible ability to craft an ever-enlarging dream of the company’s future.
  - nickik 6y ago
    I think that is a fair assessment. Many in the rocket industry, believe Starship could work reasonably well. If any other company even country had announced Starship, nobody would take it seriously. History of success gives credibility for the next stage.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

jdkee 6y ago

Tesla's P/E though.