That "skeptic test" reads to me like "Goal Post Moving: The Game". Your list of achievements variable N is unbound, your time window is floating (2 years, no wa

That "skeptic test" reads to me like "Goal Post Moving: The Game". Your list of achievements variable N is unbound, your time window is floating (2 years, no wait 5 years now), you leave it to the interlocutor to define "some falsifiable prediction of 50% chance of happening". This test is just statistics and bad statistics at that without well defined judgment criteria. Is this an intentionally sarcastic joke of a meta-commentary on the state of ML today? Because it is almost funny.