11 ms·

Compared to winning the jackpot in a standard state's lottery, how unlikely is it that Earth is the only planet containing life?

steve_adams_86 6y ago
Honest question: Is it possible to answer this without knowing how life occurs?
jandrese 6y ago
IMHO anybody who says we are alone hasn't comprehended the scale of the universe. It's unthinkable that there isn't life elsewhere on the almost uncountable other star systems. Unfortunately I think we may have also proven that interstellar travel is effectively impossible thanks to the Fermi paradox.
- captainclam 6y ago
  Or the great filter. :/
- indrax 6y ago
  If the info we have is proof that no species in history could do any of the things that would let us notice them, then it can't also be strong evidence that they must exist.
aardvark179 6y ago
That’s a hard question to answer. The Drake equation breaks the problem down by expressing it as the product of other probabilities that might be easier to quantify, but even pinning down some of those is still really hard.
lwansbrough 6y ago
Not sure it's possible to answer this question accurately with a sample size of 1. :)
Sohcahtoa82 6y ago
Three topics you might enjoy: Drake's Equation [0], the Fermi Paradox [1], and the Great Filter [2]. Drake's Equation basically tries to guess the number of civilizations in our galaxy by multiplying the rate of star formation, the fraction of stars with planets, the average number of planets that could support life, the fraction that actually DO develop intelligent life, the fraction that develop a method of communication that sends signals into space (such as radio), and the length of time those civilizations exist. Obviously, a lot of unknowns here, but if you take some guesses, you can create estimates. The Fermi Paradox is the contradiction that the galaxy is so vast that it's incredibly improbable that we're the only intelligent civilization in existence, so how come we haven't found any evidence of other civilizations? Considering how relatively young the Earth and our Sun are, some other intelligent life should have expanded into a multi-star species by now, and we should have seen evidence for it. The Great Filter is basically an answer to the Fermi Paradox. Basically, there are several steps to go from "a star system that might support life" to "interstellar colonization". Life likely needs to start from reproductive molecules, eventually evolving to complex multi-cellular life, to tool-using intelligence, to technology advancement, and eventually towards space exploration and an explosion of space colonies. The question is which step is hardest, least likely to be achieved? Which step is the Great Filter that has led to the apparent lack of evidence of other civilizations? If the filter is, say, the development of complex multicellular life, then it's very possible that Earth really is the only planet with intelligent civilization. If the filter is the final step, then we haven't reached it, and our outlook is bleak, as it would indicate that other intelligent civilizations have gone extinct despite their intelligence. Obviously, these are very very abridged descriptions. Each of them has entire books dedicated to them. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

steve_adams_86 6y ago

Honest question: Is it possible to answer this without knowing how life occurs?

jandrese 6y ago

IMHO anybody who says we are alone hasn't comprehended the scale of the universe. It's unthinkable that there isn't life elsewhere on the almost uncountable other star systems. Unfortunately I think we may have also proven that interstellar travel is effectively impossible thanks to the Fermi paradox.

captainclam 6y ago
Or the great filter. :/
indrax 6y ago
If the info we have is proof that no species in history could do any of the things that would let us notice them, then it can't also be strong evidence that they must exist.

aardvark179 6y ago

That’s a hard question to answer. The Drake equation breaks the problem down by expressing it as the product of other probabilities that might be easier to quantify, but even pinning down some of those is still really hard.

lwansbrough 6y ago

Not sure it's possible to answer this question accurately with a sample size of 1. :)

Sohcahtoa82 6y ago

Three topics you might enjoy: Drake's Equation [0], the Fermi Paradox [1], and the Great Filter [2]. Drake's Equation basically tries to guess the number of civilizations in our galaxy by multiplying the rate of star formation, the fraction of stars with planets, the average number of planets that could support life, the fraction that actually DO develop intelligent life, the fraction that develop a method of communication that sends signals into space (such as radio), and the length of time those civilizations exist. Obviously, a lot of unknowns here, but if you take some guesses, you can create estimates. The Fermi Paradox is the contradiction that the galaxy is so vast that it's incredibly improbable that we're the only intelligent civilization in existence, so how come we haven't found any evidence of other civilizations? Considering how relatively young the Earth and our Sun are, some other intelligent life should have expanded into a multi-star species by now, and we should have seen evidence for it. The Great Filter is basically an answer to the Fermi Paradox. Basically, there are several steps to go from "a star system that might support life" to "interstellar colonization". Life likely needs to start from reproductive molecules, eventually evolving to complex multi-cellular life, to tool-using intelligence, to technology advancement, and eventually towards space exploration and an explosion of space colonies. The question is which step is hardest, least likely to be achieved? Which step is the Great Filter that has led to the apparent lack of evidence of other civilizations? If the filter is, say, the development of complex multicellular life, then it's very possible that Earth really is the only planet with intelligent civilization. If the filter is the final step, then we haven't reached it, and our outlook is bleak, as it would indicate that other intelligent civilizations have gone extinct despite their intelligence. Obviously, these are very very abridged descriptions. Each of them has entire books dedicated to them. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter