There's a lot of parallels between this Harvard dude's theory, and some risk management material I've been studying lately. It goes something like this... yes,

There's a lot of parallels between this Harvard dude's theory, and some risk management material I've been studying lately. It goes something like this... yes, anything is possible. It's possible an alien launched a giant dildo-esque probe from 20 billion light years away as a means of wooing the citizens of Earth. But it's likely improbable to the point that it's near meaningless to even consider it. So what is the meaningful math behind this that provides a reasonable level of confidence behind the alien probe theory?