5 ms·
What's particularly worrying is that all vaccines use the same spike protein (although AZ doesn't have the pre-fusion conformation stabilising mutation which a
by Mvandenbergh 6y ago
What's particularly worrying is that all vaccines use the same spike protein (although AZ doesn't have the pre-fusion conformation stabilising mutation which a number of other vaccines do). So if this substantially lowers efficacy of one vaccine it will have directionally the same effect on all of them. Of course the response of efficacy to antibody titre and other correlates of protection is non-linear so it could be that AZ was just low enough for the mutation to kick them into the "doesn't work" zone.
I expect that come late summer we'll all be getting another booster of some sort against whatever mix of variants is around. The trick will be prediction although we are helped by the fact that both mRNA and vectored vaccines can be changed and produced quite quickly.
I also think that the emergence of this variant may save lives in the end because it forces to the front of everyone's mind the necessity of vaccinating the entire world and may make it politically easier to ship vaccine to the poor countries of the world before the rich countries have finished their vaccination programmes.
- rossdavidh 6y agoI may be a cynic, but I believe you are massively overestimating the rationality of decision-making during this pandemic.
- dk1138 6y agoI think there's enough evidence from 2020 that your views aren't cynical, but instead realistic. The feasibility of world-wide coordination should no longer be expected regardless how high the stakes.
- Triv888 6y ago> I expect that come late summer we'll all be getting another booster of some sort against whatever mix of variants is around. A booster? I don't think I will be able to get my first dose by then...
- rcpt 6y agoThese two comments are giving me two more reasons to try radvac
- zeku 6y agoIf you live in the USA/UK/EU/CA you will probably be vaccinated by the end of the summer as far as I can tell. (I am an amateur not a doctor)
- ghaff 6y agoIt depends on a lot of assumptions. How many shots per day--currently at about 1 million in the US but ramping up. One shot vs. two shot vaccine mix. If/when younger children get added to the pool. What percentage of the population wants a vaccine. A lot of people should be vaccinated by the end of the summer. But that would require accelerating things a fair bit from the current pace--which would put the 90% mark around Thanksgiving.
- zeku 6y agoYou're totally correct. In the USA the Biden admin is setting up mass vax sites that currently aren't running(so i expect they will make an impact) and they're promising they can speed up by 50% more. Also for what it's worth I assumed I was talking to an adult who wants a vax when I made my statement.
- ghaff 6y agoYes, barring any major setbacks, I'm optimistic that by late summer I will be able to get a vaccine without going through major gyrations. (And, in practice, I'll try to get one earlier rather than later even if it's still a bit of a hassle.)
- ghaff 6y agoIn the US, it's been ramping up to about 1.5 million shots a day and a one-shot J&J vaccine will presumably be coming on line. But, yes, depending upon the assumptions you care to make, it'll probably be later in the summer before the majority of people in the general population pool <65 years old get a vaccine.
- rcpt 6y agoalso, if new vaccines are required, you have to assume that 65+ won't go back up the front again.
- database_lost 6y agoWould new shots adapted to novel strains have to pass the same trial process as the first versions of the vaccine? Or are there some provisions for an even faster approval? I don't know how it works for the flu vaccine.
- bluGill 6y agoThe flu vaccine skips the effective part of the trail, but still needs to go through safety tests for a few months. I'm not sure at what point we are comfortable enough with vaccine technology to agree to that. There have been a few vaccine candidates in the past that made things worse, we think we understand the flu well enough to not worry about that. However for the new vaccines we don't have as much information. Although if the virus keeps mutating there will be pressure to bypass the process to approve faster. That pressure is why the flu vaccine bypasses steps, if we did everything "by the book" we wouldn't have a working flu vaccine ever.
- tssva 6y agoThe FDA has announced that boosters to address novel strains will undergo a rapid review process. Full details of what that will involve are expected in 2 to 3 weeks.