4 ms·

The AZ data is often considered to be somewhat dodgy, e.g. with dosages mixed up, patient groups selectively joined or split up for p-hacking purposes, etc. I c

by corty 6y ago

The AZ data is often considered to be somewhat dodgy, e.g. with dosages mixed up, patient groups selectively joined or split up for p-hacking purposes, etc. I can understand the US wanting a proper study under their own oversight.

vitriol1983 6y ago
I think dodgy is overstating it a bit. It's clear from the data in multiple trials and post-rollout studies that AZ vaccine is very safe and somewhat to very effective. There is a lack of gold-standard double-blind trial data to nail down answers to specific questions about efficacy, but given current overwhelming evidence of saftey and the raging pandemic it's entirely reasonable for e.g. MHRA to approve rollout. The main question that seems to remain is effectiveness in over 65s. Essentially not enough older people became sick in either arm of the trials (e.g. due to lockdown) to make any conclusion. However there is definitely indirect data (antibody titres) to infer that efficacy is not reduced in older population.
JamesBarney 6y ago
What do you think the chances are that it's unsafe?
- corty 6y ago
  I think the chances that it is unsafe are zero. Someone in the UK would have noticed by now, they vaccinated quite a lot of people. The interesting question that needs to be answered is: to what degree does it work, and for which groups? Of course it would be possible to just widely distribute the vaccine (since I consider it safe) and run the study to answer that question in parallel. In the worst case, you widely distributed an expensive placebo. Don't know if that is a good idea overall however.
  - JamesBarney 6y ago
    In my mind the worst case is we hold off on distributing it for a couple of months. And later find out that it was far more effective at preventing death/hospitalization than symptoms. So we end up 1,000 more dead than we would have if we vaccinated with the AZ vaccine.
    - tim333 6y ago
      I guess the problem with rolling out ineffective vaccines is if you waited a little you might have got a better one. Guess it depends a bit on how long it'll take to crank up the others.

by corty 6y ago

vitriol1983 6y ago

I think dodgy is overstating it a bit. It's clear from the data in multiple trials and post-rollout studies that AZ vaccine is very safe and somewhat to very effective. There is a lack of gold-standard double-blind trial data to nail down answers to specific questions about efficacy, but given current overwhelming evidence of saftey and the raging pandemic it's entirely reasonable for e.g. MHRA to approve rollout. The main question that seems to remain is effectiveness in over 65s. Essentially not enough older people became sick in either arm of the trials (e.g. due to lockdown) to make any conclusion. However there is definitely indirect data (antibody titres) to infer that efficacy is not reduced in older population.

JamesBarney 6y ago

What do you think the chances are that it's unsafe?

corty 6y ago
I think the chances that it is unsafe are zero. Someone in the UK would have noticed by now, they vaccinated quite a lot of people. The interesting question that needs to be answered is: to what degree does it work, and for which groups? Of course it would be possible to just widely distribute the vaccine (since I consider it safe) and run the study to answer that question in parallel. In the worst case, you widely distributed an expensive placebo. Don't know if that is a good idea overall however.
- JamesBarney 6y ago
  In my mind the worst case is we hold off on distributing it for a couple of months. And later find out that it was far more effective at preventing death/hospitalization than symptoms. So we end up 1,000 more dead than we would have if we vaccinated with the AZ vaccine.
  - tim333 6y ago
    I guess the problem with rolling out ineffective vaccines is if you waited a little you might have got a better one. Guess it depends a bit on how long it'll take to crank up the others.