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> Or to put it another way, tit-for-tat only works in iterated prisoner's dilemma. If an encounter with aliens is more like a single-round prisoner's dilemma, w
by webmaven 6y ago
> Or to put it another way, tit-for-tat only works in iterated prisoner's dilemma. If an encounter with aliens is more like a single-round prisoner's dilemma, we're in a bit of a bind.
The only way the dark forest scenario is not an iterated prisoner's dilemma (albeit an odd one) is if no information about the encounter can leak to subsequent first encounters.
In other words, if you're going to eliminate anyone you encounter with a preemptive first strike, you had better hope that you have the means to prevent your victims from sending distress calls and warnings so no one ever hears about your actions before they encounter you.
- DennisP 6y agoThat's only a problem if your own location is revealed. In the dark forest, everyone is hidden and attacks are anonymous.
- webmaven 6y agoYeah, the anonymity aspect seemed a bit unrealistic, it only works in the book because of huge gulfs between the technology levels of civilizations (like literally unraveling subatomic particles and spacetime) that allow the use of weapons that cannot be mitigated by any means available. I'm not sure that given such a disparity, the first-strike strategy makes sense. Once you're experiencing an exponentially acceleration of technological progress, why bother wiping out anyone just starting out? They can't catch up. And if you're worried about civilizations more advanced than yours, why give them a potential clue to your location by attacking anyone else? Clearly, only civilizations that are quite close to your own capabilities can be a credible threat, and those are ones you don't have such an overwhelming advantage over.