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> The large company discontinues the vehicle lineup, citing overrun cost issues and market disinterest for EVs save for a few Tesla fanboy diehards. We're at t

> The large company discontinues the vehicle lineup, citing overrun cost issues and market disinterest for EVs save for a few Tesla fanboy diehards. We're at the bottom of the hockey stick here. There is no "discontinued lineup", in 10 years if you don't have a viable EV platform, you are closing your doors. It might be sooner than that. By the time Ford even starts to see return on their $29B it's likely to be a whole new game. I wouldn't be surprised if they were acquired for the brand name or to assemble someone else's technology. Apple seems to be interested in outsourcing assembly, maybe Ford can get in on that.

radium3d 6y ago
Lucky for ford they heavily invested in Rivian early on and are likely learning a lot from their cooperation together
rad_gruchalski 6y ago
> in 10 years if you don't have a viable EV platform, you are closing your doors I for once hope that the bragging from EU about the H2 infrastructure is not usual hot air. It is really good to see major manufacturers coming up with H2 power plant ideas. In 10 years, I’m looking to drive a fuel cell powered car. It’s not going to be a popular opinion here but IMO, battery powered cars are a dead end. The range will always be limited by physics. Batteries are manufactured from resources dug out of the ground. It’s really dumb to carry a ton of empty batteries when running low on load, it only contributes to wearing tires faster. 10 ton hauling tractors? Who’s going to build the road infrastructure to support that. The grid has its capacity too. Today? Sure - as an alternative to ICE, an EV makes some people feel better. 10 years from now? I’m not sure.
- kungito 6y ago
  Only recently (I guess 10 years) have we started seeing serious billions poured into this research. The battery tech is improving so fast we might see some serious breakthroughs in the next 10 years regarding materials used and energy density. It's really too soon to say something isn't possible in this landscape
  - Hypx 6y ago
    The breakthrough might just be hydrogen fuel cells getting efficient enough that it's no longer an issue.
- nickik 6y ago
  I think you are completely wrong, let me make the argument. As a whole, H2 cars are also quite heavy. You literally require everything that is in an EV plus multiple extra subsystems that are incredibly complex and not light by any means. The manufacturing and materials are very both complex and expensive. You need the fuel cell itself, and that is not just some thin layer, but a whole complex subsystem that requires all kind of system around it. Then you need a very heavy high pressure tank and a high pressure fuel system. Looking at H2 cars and the amount of parts these system adds is illuminating. Next up, you can make a battery completely structural, meaning the battery actually serves the function that the steel frame used to serve in a car. Integrated like that, the battery weight is almost negative. Battery technology is improving fast, with both cost going down and energy and power density going up year over year. H2 cars can not compete in the current environment and there are no projection that they ever can. Pretty much everybody has now given up on H2 cars ever being remotely viable. Some people are still holding on to the hope for H2 in trucking, but some large truck companies have already dropped it, and with Tesla Semi going into mass production, people will realize that H2 trucking has no future as they have realized it with cars. You also seem to ignore all the negatives of H2. Fuel station that are about 100-1000x more expensive per station, and you need more of them. You can't charge over night at home with energy that is largely already available. Even if EU government funded H2 is successful, that would still not be enough for all of transportation, not even close. The majority of hydrogen for the foreseeable future will by methane based and when the grid will already be almost totally carbon free, much of hydrogen on the planet will still not be carbon free. And if you are talking 'in 10 years' you need to also look forward to what batteries will be like in 10 years. In 10 years its possible that we could have lithium sulphur batteries. Such batteries would be incredibly cheap and have crazy high energy density. Battery that cost a few 100$ and fits in a glove box could give multiple 100 miles to a small car. That is just one possible battery tech that might be viable in 10 years. Last, let me address your point about mining. While of course the extra subsystems for H2 also need materials, a much bigger issue you have ignored. A FCEV is inherently significantly less efficient, this means that even if you are producing all the H2 with solar and win, the total amount of solar and wind required would mean you would need a significant amount more solar and wind. Guess what that requires, significantly more mining, more solar panels covering more nature, more wind turbines everywhere (that people already hate). I really don't understand people love for these hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  Electric cars are going to slaughter hydrogen for one simple reason. Once people get used to the convenience of their car getting filled up every night when they are at home, they will never go back. There may be a parallel H2 network for industrial vehicles of some kinds. But the vast majority of personal use is going to be electric.
  - Hypx 6y ago
    You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate.
    - ogre_codes 6y ago
      > You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate. First. No, we're not going to have home electrolysis. It would be expensive and inefficient. And that inefficiency is what will make hydro cars also ran. While EVs are heavier, they are less expensive to operate because there is energy loss in every phase of getting power to the wheels. Extracting hydrogen, compressing it, delivering it to the end point, and extracting power from it, each phase is an efficiency loss. I already have what I need to charge an EV. It will take all night, but I rarely drive more than 300 miles in a day so that's just fine with me. And it's cheaper than hydro will ever be. Particularly if I put up my own solar to charge it.
      - Hypx 6y ago
        Why not? A company called Lavo is selling such a thing right now. You should realize that weight steals from your efficiency. A fuel cell can be less efficiency, but still gets you a similar distance on the same amount of energy. If you can accept that a fuel cell car can match a battery powered one on efficiency, then it’s conceivable that it can be as cheap to drive too.
        scsilver 6y ago

radium3d 6y ago

Lucky for ford they heavily invested in Rivian early on and are likely learning a lot from their cooperation together

rad_gruchalski 6y ago

> in 10 years if you don't have a viable EV platform, you are closing your doors I for once hope that the bragging from EU about the H2 infrastructure is not usual hot air. It is really good to see major manufacturers coming up with H2 power plant ideas. In 10 years, I’m looking to drive a fuel cell powered car. It’s not going to be a popular opinion here but IMO, battery powered cars are a dead end. The range will always be limited by physics. Batteries are manufactured from resources dug out of the ground. It’s really dumb to carry a ton of empty batteries when running low on load, it only contributes to wearing tires faster. 10 ton hauling tractors? Who’s going to build the road infrastructure to support that. The grid has its capacity too. Today? Sure - as an alternative to ICE, an EV makes some people feel better. 10 years from now? I’m not sure.

kungito 6y ago
Only recently (I guess 10 years) have we started seeing serious billions poured into this research. The battery tech is improving so fast we might see some serious breakthroughs in the next 10 years regarding materials used and energy density. It's really too soon to say something isn't possible in this landscape
- Hypx 6y ago
  The breakthrough might just be hydrogen fuel cells getting efficient enough that it's no longer an issue.
nickik 6y ago
I think you are completely wrong, let me make the argument. As a whole, H2 cars are also quite heavy. You literally require everything that is in an EV plus multiple extra subsystems that are incredibly complex and not light by any means. The manufacturing and materials are very both complex and expensive. You need the fuel cell itself, and that is not just some thin layer, but a whole complex subsystem that requires all kind of system around it. Then you need a very heavy high pressure tank and a high pressure fuel system. Looking at H2 cars and the amount of parts these system adds is illuminating. Next up, you can make a battery completely structural, meaning the battery actually serves the function that the steel frame used to serve in a car. Integrated like that, the battery weight is almost negative. Battery technology is improving fast, with both cost going down and energy and power density going up year over year. H2 cars can not compete in the current environment and there are no projection that they ever can. Pretty much everybody has now given up on H2 cars ever being remotely viable. Some people are still holding on to the hope for H2 in trucking, but some large truck companies have already dropped it, and with Tesla Semi going into mass production, people will realize that H2 trucking has no future as they have realized it with cars. You also seem to ignore all the negatives of H2. Fuel station that are about 100-1000x more expensive per station, and you need more of them. You can't charge over night at home with energy that is largely already available. Even if EU government funded H2 is successful, that would still not be enough for all of transportation, not even close. The majority of hydrogen for the foreseeable future will by methane based and when the grid will already be almost totally carbon free, much of hydrogen on the planet will still not be carbon free. And if you are talking 'in 10 years' you need to also look forward to what batteries will be like in 10 years. In 10 years its possible that we could have lithium sulphur batteries. Such batteries would be incredibly cheap and have crazy high energy density. Battery that cost a few 100$ and fits in a glove box could give multiple 100 miles to a small car. That is just one possible battery tech that might be viable in 10 years. Last, let me address your point about mining. While of course the extra subsystems for H2 also need materials, a much bigger issue you have ignored. A FCEV is inherently significantly less efficient, this means that even if you are producing all the H2 with solar and win, the total amount of solar and wind required would mean you would need a significant amount more solar and wind. Guess what that requires, significantly more mining, more solar panels covering more nature, more wind turbines everywhere (that people already hate). I really don't understand people love for these hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
ogre_codes 6y ago
Electric cars are going to slaughter hydrogen for one simple reason. Once people get used to the convenience of their car getting filled up every night when they are at home, they will never go back. There may be a parallel H2 network for industrial vehicles of some kinds. But the vast majority of personal use is going to be electric.
- Hypx 6y ago
  You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate.
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    > You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate. First. No, we're not going to have home electrolysis. It would be expensive and inefficient. And that inefficiency is what will make hydro cars also ran. While EVs are heavier, they are less expensive to operate because there is energy loss in every phase of getting power to the wheels. Extracting hydrogen, compressing it, delivering it to the end point, and extracting power from it, each phase is an efficiency loss. I already have what I need to charge an EV. It will take all night, but I rarely drive more than 300 miles in a day so that's just fine with me. And it's cheaper than hydro will ever be. Particularly if I put up my own solar to charge it.
    - Hypx 6y ago
      Why not? A company called Lavo is selling such a thing right now. You should realize that weight steals from your efficiency. A fuel cell can be less efficiency, but still gets you a similar distance on the same amount of energy. If you can accept that a fuel cell car can match a battery powered one on efficiency, then it’s conceivable that it can be as cheap to drive too.
      - scsilver 6y ago