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I think you are more right than wrong in your prediction, but “over the next two years” seems so incredibly optimistic that I’m inclined to call it naïveté inst

I think you are more right than wrong in your prediction, but “over the next two years” seems so incredibly optimistic that I’m inclined to call it naïveté instead.

cookiengineer 6y ago
Lots of European countries joined the law that makes fossil fuel burning engines obsolete starting 2030. So he might be right when he says the next two years, because in 5 years it will have been too late already :)
- gbear605 6y ago
  Unless I’m mistaken, that law is for new cars being sold, not existing cars, which just means that they need to have transitioned by then. Obviously it can’t be left to the last minute, but it also doesn’t have to be the next two years (at least for those specific legal issues).
ogre_codes 6y ago
Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. The Cybertruck is 18-24 months out. Rivian is going to be launching their electric truck in the next 18 months as well. That puts Ford's front line vehicle squarely in the headlights. If Ford can't mass produce EVs at a reasonable price in the next 2 years, things are going get increasingly ugly for them. Not end of line in 2 years, but it's just going to get harder to catch up as Tesla and the rest ramp up manufacturing capacity and capture the market. The big problem for Ford/ GM/ Dodge, and all the rest of the latecomers is sourcing batteries. Tesla has spent most of the past 10 years building up capacity and looking in supply while the rest of the auto-makers need to outsource supply in an increasingly competitive market.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  > Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. GM is selling EVs for $25k right now. The Chevy Bolt probably is the best EV for the money in the world today. The Renault Zoe and the VW ID.3 are not too far off that price and are strong sellers in Europe. A smaller battery version of the ID.3 is coming out this year.
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    GM is ... selling the Bolt for $36k with a $10k subsidy. They are not selling a $25k car. The fact that they can still collect the subsidy is a sign of how bad they've done in this market. I'm not sure why the Bolt isn't more popular for the money. Well aside from the fact that it's ugly.
    - clouddrover 6y ago
      > GM is selling the Bolt for $36k with a $10k subsidy No, GM incentives. > The fact that they can still collect the subsidy No, they can't. The federal tax subsidy expired a while ago: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electric-car-tax-credit-general-motors/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electric-car-tax-credit-g... Here's a list of EVs still eligible federal tax credits. The Bolt is not one of them: https://www.cars.com/articles/which-electric-cars-are-still-eligible-for-the-7500-federal-tax-credit-429824/ https://www.cars.com/articles/which-electric-cars-are-still-...
      - ogre_codes 6y ago
        > No, GM incentives. Hmm, I hadn't realized they were out of government subs. That explains why they are discounting them so deeply. My local dealer has them down to $29k which is tempting, but it would be hard to drop that kind of cash on a car I think is ugly (I know appearance is subjective so YMMV). For the price, dropping a few grand extra to get the spunkier Model 3 with the Supercharger network seems like a no-brainer.
- dingaling 6y ago
  > Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. They've been saying that since 2018
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    > They've been saying that since 2018 Nonsense. Tesla only announced an interest in a low end car at their "Mega super battery event". Even there it was without a timeline. My 4 years was a WAG. Prior to that, the Model 3 was their budget car.

I think you are more right than wrong in your prediction, but “over the next two years” seems so incredibly optimistic that I’m inclined to call it naïveté instead.

cookiengineer 6y ago

Lots of European countries joined the law that makes fossil fuel burning engines obsolete starting 2030. So he might be right when he says the next two years, because in 5 years it will have been too late already :)

gbear605 6y ago
Unless I’m mistaken, that law is for new cars being sold, not existing cars, which just means that they need to have transitioned by then. Obviously it can’t be left to the last minute, but it also doesn’t have to be the next two years (at least for those specific legal issues).

ogre_codes 6y ago

Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. The Cybertruck is 18-24 months out. Rivian is going to be launching their electric truck in the next 18 months as well. That puts Ford's front line vehicle squarely in the headlights. If Ford can't mass produce EVs at a reasonable price in the next 2 years, things are going get increasingly ugly for them. Not end of line in 2 years, but it's just going to get harder to catch up as Tesla and the rest ramp up manufacturing capacity and capture the market. The big problem for Ford/ GM/ Dodge, and all the rest of the latecomers is sourcing batteries. Tesla has spent most of the past 10 years building up capacity and looking in supply while the rest of the auto-makers need to outsource supply in an increasingly competitive market.

clouddrover 6y ago
> Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. GM is selling EVs for $25k right now. The Chevy Bolt probably is the best EV for the money in the world today. The Renault Zoe and the VW ID.3 are not too far off that price and are strong sellers in Europe. A smaller battery version of the ID.3 is coming out this year.
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  GM is ... selling the Bolt for $36k with a $10k subsidy. They are not selling a $25k car. The fact that they can still collect the subsidy is a sign of how bad they've done in this market. I'm not sure why the Bolt isn't more popular for the money. Well aside from the fact that it's ugly.
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    > GM is selling the Bolt for $36k with a $10k subsidy No, GM incentives. > The fact that they can still collect the subsidy No, they can't. The federal tax subsidy expired a while ago: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electric-car-tax-credit-general-motors/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electric-car-tax-credit-g... Here's a list of EVs still eligible federal tax credits. The Bolt is not one of them: https://www.cars.com/articles/which-electric-cars-are-still-eligible-for-the-7500-federal-tax-credit-429824/ https://www.cars.com/articles/which-electric-cars-are-still-...
    - ogre_codes 6y ago
      > No, GM incentives. Hmm, I hadn't realized they were out of government subs. That explains why they are discounting them so deeply. My local dealer has them down to $29k which is tempting, but it would be hard to drop that kind of cash on a car I think is ugly (I know appearance is subjective so YMMV). For the price, dropping a few grand extra to get the spunkier Model 3 with the Supercharger network seems like a no-brainer.
dingaling 6y ago
> Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. They've been saying that since 2018
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  > They've been saying that since 2018 Nonsense. Tesla only announced an interest in a low end car at their "Mega super battery event". Even there it was without a timeline. My 4 years was a WAG. Prior to that, the Model 3 was their budget car.