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This is much ado over almost nothing: "between the ages 13 and 18, parents of first-born girls divorce more than parents of first-born boys. The odds of divorce

by _qulr 6y ago

This is much ado over almost nothing: "between the ages 13 and 18, parents of first-born girls divorce more than parents of first-born boys. The odds of divorce within this period are 10.7% for parents of boys, and 11.3% for parents of girls." https://theconversation.com/parents-of-teenage-daughters-more-likely-to-divorce-study-84704 https://theconversation.com/parents-of-teenage-daughters-mor... 10.7% vs. 11.3%. Not much difference. What little difference there is could be explained by, for example, the father sexually abusing the teenage daughter, not by trouble caused by the daughter.

Blikkentrekker 6y ago
I've learned well that when popular news not come with actual numbers, one can assume that the numbers aren't spectacular. It tends to print then whenever they be spectacular.
elefanten 6y ago
That’s quite a leap at the end. You’re saying 0.6% of fathers sexually abuse a daughter?
- awillen 6y ago
  Yeah... what? Wow. Just really took a turn there all of a sudden.
- _qulr 6y ago
  I don't know. Does anyone know? Accurate stats are hard to come by, as this is of course underreported by the victims. We do know the number is greater than 0.0% though. The Conversation article has a link to the original paper https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/2494524/wp2017n26.pdf?platform=hootsuite https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_... which does not even mention this possibility at all as a factor. I find this to be a curious omission. Non-sexual physical abuse could also be a factor. The teenage years are when boys and girls start to "grow apart" in terms of height and strength, which makes teenage girls on average less able to defend against physical abuse than teenage boys. Also, our society is "more accepting" of violence against males than violence against females. Is this a factor in the divorce rate? I don't know, but the possibility should not be ignored.
- Wowfunhappy 6y ago
  As awful as it may be, that doesn't sound so far-fetched to me. 1/4 woman and 1/7 men have been "victims of severe physical violence [...] by an intimate partner in their lifetime." That's 25% for women! Very different statistic, but it does provide perspective. Is GP's 0.6% so implausible? --- Source for the above is https://ncadv.org/STATISTICS https://ncadv.org/STATISTICS. This is just what came up in a quick Google search, but it was inline with what I recalled reading in the past.
  - Enginerrrd 6y ago
    Yeah 1 in 200 is well within the realm of abuse stats though it's still really speculative to try to assign a cause for a blip in the data. No idea what controls they used, but I can't imagine there is much for statistical significance there.
    - Wowfunhappy 6y ago
      I think that was OP's point though. At these numbers, "this is much ado over almost nothing."
      - Enginerrrd 6y ago
        I agree wholeheartedly, but not so much with OP's second part trying to speculate over a cause.
  - ma2rten 6y ago
    That number ("1/4 woman and 1/7 men") seemed unlikely high to me. I looked at the source that was cited on the ncadv.org page. Maybe I'm misreading it, but it doesn't seem to support that. According to table 11 it's 2.8 in 1000 men and 8.4 in 1000 women.
- JeremyBanks 6y ago
  Probably a lot more than that.
- tolbish 6y ago
  Maybe not that. I am thinking something along the lines of "Have more stringent, less rational parenting techniques towards daughters" which would not necessarily be sexual.
- scaramanga 6y ago
  I haven't seen any studies putting the prevalence of father-daughter incest as low as 0.6%. I believe that a quick google scholar search will lead you to guesstimate a figure about 10x higher than that (at the low end) but it depends on how the populations have been sampled, what the definition of incest is, and how surveys are worded. But in any case, sounds like GP is saying that the difference in prevalence of incest between boys and girls could lead to a difference of 0.6% in divorce rates. Which is quite a different hypothesis.

by _qulr 6y ago

Blikkentrekker 6y ago

I've learned well that when popular news not come with actual numbers, one can assume that the numbers aren't spectacular. It tends to print then whenever they be spectacular.

elefanten 6y ago

That’s quite a leap at the end. You’re saying 0.6% of fathers sexually abuse a daughter?

awillen 6y ago
Yeah... what? Wow. Just really took a turn there all of a sudden.
_qulr 6y ago
I don't know. Does anyone know? Accurate stats are hard to come by, as this is of course underreported by the victims. We do know the number is greater than 0.0% though. The Conversation article has a link to the original paper https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/2494524/wp2017n26.pdf?platform=hootsuite https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_... which does not even mention this possibility at all as a factor. I find this to be a curious omission. Non-sexual physical abuse could also be a factor. The teenage years are when boys and girls start to "grow apart" in terms of height and strength, which makes teenage girls on average less able to defend against physical abuse than teenage boys. Also, our society is "more accepting" of violence against males than violence against females. Is this a factor in the divorce rate? I don't know, but the possibility should not be ignored.
Wowfunhappy 6y ago
As awful as it may be, that doesn't sound so far-fetched to me. 1/4 woman and 1/7 men have been "victims of severe physical violence [...] by an intimate partner in their lifetime." That's 25% for women! Very different statistic, but it does provide perspective. Is GP's 0.6% so implausible? --- Source for the above is https://ncadv.org/STATISTICS https://ncadv.org/STATISTICS. This is just what came up in a quick Google search, but it was inline with what I recalled reading in the past.
- Enginerrrd 6y ago
  Yeah 1 in 200 is well within the realm of abuse stats though it's still really speculative to try to assign a cause for a blip in the data. No idea what controls they used, but I can't imagine there is much for statistical significance there.
  - Wowfunhappy 6y ago
    I think that was OP's point though. At these numbers, "this is much ado over almost nothing."
    - Enginerrrd 6y ago
      I agree wholeheartedly, but not so much with OP's second part trying to speculate over a cause.
- ma2rten 6y ago
  That number ("1/4 woman and 1/7 men") seemed unlikely high to me. I looked at the source that was cited on the ncadv.org page. Maybe I'm misreading it, but it doesn't seem to support that. According to table 11 it's 2.8 in 1000 men and 8.4 in 1000 women.
JeremyBanks 6y ago
Probably a lot more than that.
tolbish 6y ago
Maybe not that. I am thinking something along the lines of "Have more stringent, less rational parenting techniques towards daughters" which would not necessarily be sexual.
scaramanga 6y ago
I haven't seen any studies putting the prevalence of father-daughter incest as low as 0.6%. I believe that a quick google scholar search will lead you to guesstimate a figure about 10x higher than that (at the low end) but it depends on how the populations have been sampled, what the definition of incest is, and how surveys are worded. But in any case, sounds like GP is saying that the difference in prevalence of incest between boys and girls could lead to a difference of 0.6% in divorce rates. Which is quite a different hypothesis.