4 ms·
I imagine predictions about unemployment would be based on numbers published by specific agencies. For example, see this Metaculus question: https://www.metacul
by cousin_it 6y ago
I imagine predictions about unemployment would be based on numbers published by specific agencies. For example, see this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-abo...
- tsimionescu 6y agoThe question is, why should I believe those numebrs? "Unemployment" is a pretty technical measurement (the number of people who have not been employed for some amount of time X < T < Y but are still looking for a job) that is estimated through a pretty complex process (surveys and all of the statistical analysis that has to be done on those), so I can easily question: 1. The competency (are they measuring correctly?) or truth-fullness of the institutions (are they cooking the numbers?) 2. The relevance of the number (why not just look at people older than X who don't have a job?) 3. The relative importance - maybe unemployment has gone down, but underemployment has gone up, which some would claim is more relevant These are not even hypothetical concerns, these are all real complaints reasonable people have about the unemployment numbers in various places.