5 ms·

Perhaps the winning move, like with today's nuclear weaponry, simply not to play.

by smichel17 6y ago

goatlover 6y ago
Or to hide in the Dark Forest instead of announcing yourself to the cosmos.
- generalizations 6y ago
  This does seem to be the logical conclusion of a game theory analysis. Since planet killers can show up without any warning, the only solution is make it impossible to aim your unstoppable weapons, which means you have to be impossible to detect or locate. So as you said, maybe the solution to the Fermi Paradox is that every surviving civilization is hiding in cloaked habitats within the vastness of intergalactic space.
  - jerf 6y ago
    By the time you can launch a planet-killer, you are no longer tied to your own planet anymore. It requires marshaling an amount of energy far beyond what you could afford to do in a biosphere, and a biosphere is all a planet really has to offer. Two of these civilizations might certainly take a swing at each other's planets, but it wouldn't end the war by any means; at this point the planet may not even account for single-digit percentages of what is going on in the system. I think if you look ahead at feasible technology, you get self-sustaining pure-space civilizations long before you get civilizations that can launch relativistic planet killers. (The other problem with the "planet killer" hypothesis, as we've discussed in other HN conversations, is that there's no reason to wait until there's a civilization on the other end to launch one, given how fast they can pop up. As soon as you see life, you should launch one. But Earth has been broadcasting fairly conclusive proof that a civilization with just a bit more tech than we have now is alive ever since the Great Oxygen Catastrophe, yet nobody has killed Earth.)
  - bcgraham 6y ago
    When some civilization becomes apparent, wouldn’t game theorizing say there’s a free rider problem? Wait for someone else to poke their heads out to handle it, save us the trouble, and maybe learn how we rank in a battle royale?
CountSessine 6y ago
With nuclear weapons we had MAD - and even if the other side didn’t retaliate, the planet would be ruined by a nuclear war so no one could win. This is more dangerous. If weapons are absolutely but selectively destructive - I can wipe your planet out quickly before you have time to respond and my planet is just fine - it incentivizes me to attack first and hunt down other potential threats and destroy them before you or they destroy me.
- est31 6y ago
  Why do you say "had"... MAD is still around. There might be less fear about it in the media, but the danger is still present. As defense technology matures, it might make nuclear war winnable for the side that controls a sufficient nuclear defense. Or it might not.
- throwaway316943 6y ago
  Yes but it also changes your choice of habitat lest someone do the same to you. Remember with clever aiming these weapons have limitless range so there is no such thing as a border conflict and someone could nuke all of your systems. My point is that this strongly discourages solar system based empires and favours mobile space based civilizations. My hunch is that our galaxy is filled with nomadic hard to detect habitats and that that is the natural progression. There’s probably only a brief period of time where technological civilizations remain bound to their original planet and solar system. That’s my answer to the Fermi paradox.
  - CountSessine 6y ago
    This is basically what I’m saying. With an alternative to unmovable planets, the Dark Forest scenario becomes a bit less likely because the betrayal scenario in the prisoner’s dilemma becomes a lot less extreme.

Perhaps the winning move, like with today's nuclear weaponry, simply not to play.

goatlover 6y ago

Or to hide in the Dark Forest instead of announcing yourself to the cosmos.

generalizations 6y ago
This does seem to be the logical conclusion of a game theory analysis. Since planet killers can show up without any warning, the only solution is make it impossible to aim your unstoppable weapons, which means you have to be impossible to detect or locate. So as you said, maybe the solution to the Fermi Paradox is that every surviving civilization is hiding in cloaked habitats within the vastness of intergalactic space.
- jerf 6y ago
  By the time you can launch a planet-killer, you are no longer tied to your own planet anymore. It requires marshaling an amount of energy far beyond what you could afford to do in a biosphere, and a biosphere is all a planet really has to offer. Two of these civilizations might certainly take a swing at each other's planets, but it wouldn't end the war by any means; at this point the planet may not even account for single-digit percentages of what is going on in the system. I think if you look ahead at feasible technology, you get self-sustaining pure-space civilizations long before you get civilizations that can launch relativistic planet killers. (The other problem with the "planet killer" hypothesis, as we've discussed in other HN conversations, is that there's no reason to wait until there's a civilization on the other end to launch one, given how fast they can pop up. As soon as you see life, you should launch one. But Earth has been broadcasting fairly conclusive proof that a civilization with just a bit more tech than we have now is alive ever since the Great Oxygen Catastrophe, yet nobody has killed Earth.)
- bcgraham 6y ago
  When some civilization becomes apparent, wouldn’t game theorizing say there’s a free rider problem? Wait for someone else to poke their heads out to handle it, save us the trouble, and maybe learn how we rank in a battle royale?

CountSessine 6y ago

With nuclear weapons we had MAD - and even if the other side didn’t retaliate, the planet would be ruined by a nuclear war so no one could win. This is more dangerous. If weapons are absolutely but selectively destructive - I can wipe your planet out quickly before you have time to respond and my planet is just fine - it incentivizes me to attack first and hunt down other potential threats and destroy them before you or they destroy me.

est31 6y ago
Why do you say "had"... MAD is still around. There might be less fear about it in the media, but the danger is still present. As defense technology matures, it might make nuclear war winnable for the side that controls a sufficient nuclear defense. Or it might not.
throwaway316943 6y ago
Yes but it also changes your choice of habitat lest someone do the same to you. Remember with clever aiming these weapons have limitless range so there is no such thing as a border conflict and someone could nuke all of your systems. My point is that this strongly discourages solar system based empires and favours mobile space based civilizations. My hunch is that our galaxy is filled with nomadic hard to detect habitats and that that is the natural progression. There’s probably only a brief period of time where technological civilizations remain bound to their original planet and solar system. That’s my answer to the Fermi paradox.
- CountSessine 6y ago
  This is basically what I’m saying. With an alternative to unmovable planets, the Dark Forest scenario becomes a bit less likely because the betrayal scenario in the prisoner’s dilemma becomes a lot less extreme.