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The shortage is amplified by the us china tech war that forced key supplier asml to limit deliveries of chip making equipment. Also tsmc cancelled euv equipmen

The shortage is amplified by the us china tech war that forced key supplier asml to limit deliveries of chip making equipment. Also tsmc cancelled euv equipment orders due to the huawei ban: https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/asml-reports-2021-euv-shipments-sliding-into-2022.13631/ https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/asml-reports-20...

MrsPeaches 6y ago
Thanks for sharing. Key quotes from this: "it's supply chain limitations by design, because the customers told us, we don't need them, and then coming back and said, oops! we might have been wrong." From the CEO it's due customers thinking it was going to be bad (for various reasons) and then it wasn't. The process have long lead times and when you pause them you can't just expidite them, they have a fixed lead time.
KirillPanov 6y ago
[edit: this post appears to be getting a lot of downvotes. please consider replying if you disagree] > The shortage is amplified by the us china tech war I keep hearing this vague accusation, over and over, with no evidence provided. Taiwan is not part of China -- at least as far as the sanctions are concerned. China exports lots of finished electronics but very, very few semiconductors -- and virtually none for the automotive sector. SMIC is not competitive. They're kept afloat by the Chinese government and supply almost exclusively for domestic products. > that forced key supplier asml to limit deliveries of chip making equipment. Source? > Also tsmc cancelled euv equipment orders due to the huawei ban: How would that make any sense? TSMC is completely booked to the hilt right now. Would any sane person think "gee, that's a great cancel our expansion plans" That $150 million ASML EUV scanner order that got cancelled was from SMIC, not TSMC: https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/asml-delays-euv-machine-shipment-smic-2019-11/ https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/asml-delays-... Again, China not Taiwan. > https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/asml-reports-20 https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/asml-reports-20... I'm not going to read the whole thing, but the word "Huawei" appears only once on that webpage, as part of an anonymous blog commenter's assertion. That is not a credible source.
- account42 6y ago
  > Taiwan is not part of China -- at least as far as the sanctions are concerned. Also as far as anything else is concerned (except spineless organizations like the UN).
- throwaway4good 6y ago
  The source is asml in their latest conference call. It is a bit much to read through so I linked to this forum thread. The forum thread links to the conference call transcript in the very top. Smic got their euv scanner blocked. Tsmc cancelled an order. Both due to the tech sanctions. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/20/asml-holding-nv-asml-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcr/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/20/as...
  - KirillPanov 6y ago
    > Also tsmc cancelled euv equipment orders due to the huawei ban: > https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/20/as https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/20/as... The word Huawei doesn't appear on that page either. Please stop spreading misinformation. The sanctions are on Chinese companies, not Taiwanese companies. China's chip exports are somewhere between zero and insignificant.
    - throwaway4good 6y ago
      You need to read the transcript more carefully.
      - account42 6y ago
        Maybe you could quote the parts of the transcript that you think support your assertions.
        throwaway4good 6y ago
        Cancellation of production facilities at TSMC due to Huawei/HiSilicon ban: "... as clearly our key foundry customer came back and said, listen, our key customer for N3 is now blacklisted. So we cannot ship. So we need to adjust our 2021 outlook for EUV systems." Could sell more had it not been for the US sanctions: "... but clearly see potential upside to these numbers where we can disregard any further impact of export control regulations resulting from the current geopolitical situation." The CEO is business person and for him to do any kind of politics or worse geopolitics would hurt his business. So he clearly cannot just say: "Listen, let us sell a bunch of these bad boys to the Chinese and the chip shortage will be a thing of the past in 6 months." Even though that just might be the case.
trynumber9 6y ago
Current shortages impact processes that aren't EUV. For example, the consoles, AMD CPUs and GPUs all use non-EUV N7. And Nvidia is on Samsung's 8nm, also not EUV. There are delays and shortages all over the industry if you read DigiTimes. Packaging in particular. Capital and lead time sensitive industries like this suffer greatly when demand increases unexpectedly. Second that linked forum thread is really unclear. Some even thinking that Intel was the customer who delayed EUV machine orders (which would make sense given their 7nm problems).
- baybal2 6y ago
  Current shortages shortages are not even because of 300mm foundries. 200mm is what most of automotive chips are made on. Cheapest 300mm equipment is many times more expensive than 200mm.
cma 6y ago
The article says it is wafer limited, which wouldn't be related to asml would it?

MrsPeaches 6y ago

Thanks for sharing. Key quotes from this: "it's supply chain limitations by design, because the customers told us, we don't need them, and then coming back and said, oops! we might have been wrong." From the CEO it's due customers thinking it was going to be bad (for various reasons) and then it wasn't. The process have long lead times and when you pause them you can't just expidite them, they have a fixed lead time.

KirillPanov 6y ago

[edit: this post appears to be getting a lot of downvotes. please consider replying if you disagree] > The shortage is amplified by the us china tech war I keep hearing this vague accusation, over and over, with no evidence provided. Taiwan is not part of China -- at least as far as the sanctions are concerned. China exports lots of finished electronics but very, very few semiconductors -- and virtually none for the automotive sector. SMIC is not competitive. They're kept afloat by the Chinese government and supply almost exclusively for domestic products. > that forced key supplier asml to limit deliveries of chip making equipment. Source? > Also tsmc cancelled euv equipment orders due to the huawei ban: How would that make any sense? TSMC is completely booked to the hilt right now. Would any sane person think "gee, that's a great cancel our expansion plans" That $150 million ASML EUV scanner order that got cancelled was from SMIC, not TSMC: https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/asml-delays-euv-machine-shipment-smic-2019-11/ https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/asml-delays-... Again, China not Taiwan. > https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/asml-reports-20 https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/asml-reports-20... I'm not going to read the whole thing, but the word "Huawei" appears only once on that webpage, as part of an anonymous blog commenter's assertion. That is not a credible source.

account42 6y ago
> Taiwan is not part of China -- at least as far as the sanctions are concerned. Also as far as anything else is concerned (except spineless organizations like the UN).
throwaway4good 6y ago
The source is asml in their latest conference call. It is a bit much to read through so I linked to this forum thread. The forum thread links to the conference call transcript in the very top. Smic got their euv scanner blocked. Tsmc cancelled an order. Both due to the tech sanctions. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/20/asml-holding-nv-asml-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcr/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/20/as...
- KirillPanov 6y ago
  > Also tsmc cancelled euv equipment orders due to the huawei ban: > https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/20/as https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/20/as... The word Huawei doesn't appear on that page either. Please stop spreading misinformation. The sanctions are on Chinese companies, not Taiwanese companies. China's chip exports are somewhere between zero and insignificant.
  - throwaway4good 6y ago
    You need to read the transcript more carefully.
    - account42 6y ago
      Maybe you could quote the parts of the transcript that you think support your assertions.
      - throwaway4good 6y ago
        Cancellation of production facilities at TSMC due to Huawei/HiSilicon ban: "... as clearly our key foundry customer came back and said, listen, our key customer for N3 is now blacklisted. So we cannot ship. So we need to adjust our 2021 outlook for EUV systems." Could sell more had it not been for the US sanctions: "... but clearly see potential upside to these numbers where we can disregard any further impact of export control regulations resulting from the current geopolitical situation." The CEO is business person and for him to do any kind of politics or worse geopolitics would hurt his business. So he clearly cannot just say: "Listen, let us sell a bunch of these bad boys to the Chinese and the chip shortage will be a thing of the past in 6 months." Even though that just might be the case.

trynumber9 6y ago

Current shortages impact processes that aren't EUV. For example, the consoles, AMD CPUs and GPUs all use non-EUV N7. And Nvidia is on Samsung's 8nm, also not EUV. There are delays and shortages all over the industry if you read DigiTimes. Packaging in particular. Capital and lead time sensitive industries like this suffer greatly when demand increases unexpectedly. Second that linked forum thread is really unclear. Some even thinking that Intel was the customer who delayed EUV machine orders (which would make sense given their 7nm problems).

baybal2 6y ago
Current shortages shortages are not even because of 300mm foundries. 200mm is what most of automotive chips are made on. Cheapest 300mm equipment is many times more expensive than 200mm.

cma 6y ago

The article says it is wafer limited, which wouldn't be related to asml would it?