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"One person died" isn't a refutation, it's just an appeal to emotion. Under 40 the survival rate is 99.98% for everyone -- including the already ill. If you

"One person died" isn't a refutation, it's just an appeal to emotion. Under 40 the survival rate is 99.98% for everyone -- including the already ill. If you screened for comorbidities and gave people great healthcare, you could get that 99.999% or higher. And save millions of lives (and trillions of dollars) by doing so.

dragontamer 6y ago
> Under 40 the survival rate is 99.98% for everyone -- including the already ill I doubt that. But I'm not entirely sure how to calculate the numbers you just said. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm I realize this page changes, so I've taken a screenshot here: https://imgur.com/0iM5FHC https://imgur.com/0iM5FHC This is the chart of who died in January 2021. Yes, most deaths are aged 65+, but there's been deaths in all age categories. I doubt its 99.98% as you suggest (especially since the current case-mortality-rate is ~2.5%, at least for my state) The official CDC numbers are stratified from 35 to 44, I'm not entirely sure who you are citing to get "below 40" age groups.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  It lists the total population for each age group. Just the 35 to 44 age group is above 99.98% (given the death counts in younger age groups it's obviously still true if you include them in the calculation): (1-7057/41659144)*100=99.983% I expect the individual probability of surviving infection is not that high for each member of the group though. It's not clear if that meaning is intended anywhere above.
  - dragontamer 6y ago
    > 41659144 That's the total population of all 35 to 44 year olds in all of the USA. > 99.983% That's 0.02% of all 35 to 44 year olds have died, including those who never had COVID. IN ONE MONTH, not including the people who died two months ago, or 3 months ago.
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      "from 1/1/2020 to 1/30/2021" It's for the entire period of the pandemic. You are correct in pointing out that it isn't looking at deaths/infection.
      - dragontamer 6y ago
        I do appreciate the correction by the way.

dragontamer 6y ago

> Under 40 the survival rate is 99.98% for everyone -- including the already ill I doubt that. But I'm not entirely sure how to calculate the numbers you just said. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm I realize this page changes, so I've taken a screenshot here: https://imgur.com/0iM5FHC https://imgur.com/0iM5FHC This is the chart of who died in January 2021. Yes, most deaths are aged 65+, but there's been deaths in all age categories. I doubt its 99.98% as you suggest (especially since the current case-mortality-rate is ~2.5%, at least for my state) The official CDC numbers are stratified from 35 to 44, I'm not entirely sure who you are citing to get "below 40" age groups.

maxerickson 6y ago
It lists the total population for each age group. Just the 35 to 44 age group is above 99.98% (given the death counts in younger age groups it's obviously still true if you include them in the calculation): (1-7057/41659144)*100=99.983% I expect the individual probability of surviving infection is not that high for each member of the group though. It's not clear if that meaning is intended anywhere above.
- dragontamer 6y ago
  > 41659144 That's the total population of all 35 to 44 year olds in all of the USA. > 99.983% That's 0.02% of all 35 to 44 year olds have died, including those who never had COVID. IN ONE MONTH, not including the people who died two months ago, or 3 months ago.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    "from 1/1/2020 to 1/30/2021" It's for the entire period of the pandemic. You are correct in pointing out that it isn't looking at deaths/infection.
    - dragontamer 6y ago
      I do appreciate the correction by the way.