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Yes, though the vaccine is likely to have substantially less efficacy than current mRNA based vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, though I think it's promising en
by habryka 6y ago
Yes, though the vaccine is likely to have substantially less efficacy than current mRNA based vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, though I think it's promising enough that some level of efficacy (like idk. maybe 50%, who knows) doesn't seem out of the question (whereas Moderna and Pfizer are likely 90%+).
- SahAssar 6y ago> 50% efficacy doesn't seem out of the question Is there anything at all to back up that figure? Like, seriously, anything at all? I'd be very interested to hear if there was, but again, are there any hard numbers from studies of success rates of this? Or even self-reported numbers?
- avs733 6y agono. the actual efficacy on this isn't 50% or 100% or 0% is is unknown. The value of the vaccines is in part that there is evidence to backup that they work, they aren't dangerous, they are formulated properly and consistently.
- habryka 6y agoI suggested 50% as more of an upper bound. My current guess is I would be very surprised if these have very high efficacy, based on a number of studies on kind of similar vaccines I remember reading. I think the most likely outcome is that these have 0% efficacy, though I also wouldn't put less than 10% probability on them having between 20% and 50%. But yeah, these are all just random guesses. Probably some biologists have better models here that could allow them to make better predictions, but there is no hard data.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]